A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
Well there we are www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 5, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Well there we are www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.
November 3, 2025 at 9:00 PM
An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.
£4bn raised from 4 per cent of households
November 1, 2025 at 10:41 PM
£4bn raised from 4 per cent of households
Spot the election campaign britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...
August 15, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Spot the election campaign britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...
Reform opens up a 4pt lead; Tories below 20%. Britain Elects poll tracker
britainelects.substack.com/p/whos-ahead...
britainelects.substack.com/p/whos-ahead...
May 14, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Reform opens up a 4pt lead; Tories below 20%. Britain Elects poll tracker
britainelects.substack.com/p/whos-ahead...
britainelects.substack.com/p/whos-ahead...
*looking at divisions which changed hands*
Oh, there's a Labour one over there. What happened?
*looks*
ah
Oh, there's a Labour one over there. What happened?
*looks*
ah
May 4, 2025 at 9:50 AM
*looking at divisions which changed hands*
Oh, there's a Labour one over there. What happened?
*looks*
ah
Oh, there's a Labour one over there. What happened?
*looks*
ah
Reviewing our local election forecast
April 30, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Reviewing our local election forecast
April 16, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Small additions, but important additions, to this year's local election service @britainelects.com
April 13, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Small additions, but important additions, to this year's local election service @britainelects.com
New post: Australia!
Here is a country where the opposition Liberals (conservatives) have abandoned precision attacks on the cost of living to tack right on culture wars.
It may have cost them the election.
Read:
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
Here is a country where the opposition Liberals (conservatives) have abandoned precision attacks on the cost of living to tack right on culture wars.
It may have cost them the election.
Read:
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
April 12, 2025 at 8:50 AM
New post: Australia!
Here is a country where the opposition Liberals (conservatives) have abandoned precision attacks on the cost of living to tack right on culture wars.
It may have cost them the election.
Read:
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
Here is a country where the opposition Liberals (conservatives) have abandoned precision attacks on the cost of living to tack right on culture wars.
It may have cost them the election.
Read:
www.newstatesman.com/internationa...
This will be put to the test in Runcorn and Helsby. Will Grn and Con voters move to Labour to stop Reform? Or is a Farage win not quite so toxic as people think? www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
April 10, 2025 at 11:28 AM
This will be put to the test in Runcorn and Helsby. Will Grn and Con voters move to Labour to stop Reform? Or is a Farage win not quite so toxic as people think? www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Last night's council by-elections, this morning's write up.
Reform and Labour do as well as the national polls imply. Tories outperform in Hyndburn:
britainelects.substack.com/p/labour-rou...
Reform and Labour do as well as the national polls imply. Tories outperform in Hyndburn:
britainelects.substack.com/p/labour-rou...
February 7, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Last night's council by-elections, this morning's write up.
Reform and Labour do as well as the national polls imply. Tories outperform in Hyndburn:
britainelects.substack.com/p/labour-rou...
Reform and Labour do as well as the national polls imply. Tories outperform in Hyndburn:
britainelects.substack.com/p/labour-rou...
Cash strapped councils pay a premium to buy up land for development. Rooted in a Con gov decision made in the 1950s:
www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-s...
www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-s...
December 25, 2024 at 7:28 AM
Cash strapped councils pay a premium to buy up land for development. Rooted in a Con gov decision made in the 1950s:
www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-s...
www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-s...
I've started modelling my general election forecast onto wards, and seeing how they compare to recent council by-elections.
And it's not... terrible?
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
And it's not... terrible?
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
December 19, 2024 at 1:05 PM
I've started modelling my general election forecast onto wards, and seeing how they compare to recent council by-elections.
And it's not... terrible?
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
And it's not... terrible?
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
How the votes for assisted dying split by party
November 29, 2024 at 2:43 PM
How the votes for assisted dying split by party
I think claims by the way that Americans / untoward sorts are swamping the petition with fake names and addresses would at least show up in the changes since the weekend. They're not.
Some v interesting growth in the most rural of England, though.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Some v interesting growth in the most rural of England, though.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
November 26, 2024 at 10:44 AM
I think claims by the way that Americans / untoward sorts are swamping the petition with fake names and addresses would at least show up in the changes since the weekend. They're not.
Some v interesting growth in the most rural of England, though.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Some v interesting growth in the most rural of England, though.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
This is a Reform petition, not a public petition. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
November 26, 2024 at 10:37 AM
This is a Reform petition, not a public petition. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
So to summarise - the first 150 days for Labour in the council by-elections:
Worst drop-off in support we've seen for quite some time
Masks how big a rise Reform is making
Worse loss of seats when compared to 1997
But not guaranteed indication of long term feeling. Cons lost more in 2010!
Fin
Worst drop-off in support we've seen for quite some time
Masks how big a rise Reform is making
Worse loss of seats when compared to 1997
But not guaranteed indication of long term feeling. Cons lost more in 2010!
Fin
November 25, 2024 at 10:19 AM
So to summarise - the first 150 days for Labour in the council by-elections:
Worst drop-off in support we've seen for quite some time
Masks how big a rise Reform is making
Worse loss of seats when compared to 1997
But not guaranteed indication of long term feeling. Cons lost more in 2010!
Fin
Worst drop-off in support we've seen for quite some time
Masks how big a rise Reform is making
Worse loss of seats when compared to 1997
But not guaranteed indication of long term feeling. Cons lost more in 2010!
Fin
But look at this. The average shift in support for parties is more dramatic than previous.
Labour is losing on average 10pts in the council by-elections it stands in.
Compares to...
2017: +7
2010: +4
2005: -2
1997: -6
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Labour is losing on average 10pts in the council by-elections it stands in.
Compares to...
2017: +7
2010: +4
2005: -2
1997: -6
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
November 25, 2024 at 10:00 AM
But look at this. The average shift in support for parties is more dramatic than previous.
Labour is losing on average 10pts in the council by-elections it stands in.
Compares to...
2017: +7
2010: +4
2005: -2
1997: -6
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Labour is losing on average 10pts in the council by-elections it stands in.
Compares to...
2017: +7
2010: +4
2005: -2
1997: -6
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
In historic terms it's one of the worse starts. Compared to 1997 it's bad.
But it's not a telltale sign that you're going to do badly at the next general election.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
But it's not a telltale sign that you're going to do badly at the next general election.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
November 25, 2024 at 9:57 AM
In historic terms it's one of the worse starts. Compared to 1997 it's bad.
But it's not a telltale sign that you're going to do badly at the next general election.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
But it's not a telltale sign that you're going to do badly at the next general election.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
"General Election Now" petition signatures vs Reform vote by parliamentary constituency
November 24, 2024 at 2:16 PM
"General Election Now" petition signatures vs Reform vote by parliamentary constituency
Design code consultation in Chester y'day. About as you would expect. Planning app architects should err closer to the designs with overwhelming favourability, not the ones which divide opinion.
November 24, 2024 at 1:55 AM
Design code consultation in Chester y'day. About as you would expect. Planning app architects should err closer to the designs with overwhelming favourability, not the ones which divide opinion.