Reposted by Ben Walker
How do you forecast an election result more accurately than all the professional pollsters? I asked Ben Walker from @britainelects.com and he told me... it's all about using local election microdata. Fascinating stuff in this week's episode of the Talk Data to Me podcast!
January 21, 2026 at 9:13 AM
How do you forecast an election result more accurately than all the professional pollsters? I asked Ben Walker from @britainelects.com and he told me... it's all about using local election microdata. Fascinating stuff in this week's episode of the Talk Data to Me podcast!
Reposted by Ben Walker
@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens.
This is particularly striking:
This is particularly striking:
January 23, 2026 at 3:54 PM
@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens.
This is particularly striking:
This is particularly striking:
New best party on the economy poll:
Con: 21%
Ref: 14%
Lab: 12%
Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods.
8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons
17% of Con voters now prefer Ref
YouGov
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...
Con: 21%
Ref: 14%
Lab: 12%
Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods.
8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons
17% of Con voters now prefer Ref
YouGov
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net
January 16, 2026 at 8:15 AM
New best party on the economy poll:
Con: 21%
Ref: 14%
Lab: 12%
Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods.
8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons
17% of Con voters now prefer Ref
YouGov
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...
Con: 21%
Ref: 14%
Lab: 12%
Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods.
8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons
17% of Con voters now prefer Ref
YouGov
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...
Newark would vote Conservative in an election held today:
Con: 37% (-2)
Ref: 23% (+8)
Lab: 21% (-12)
Britain Predicts
Con: 37% (-2)
Ref: 23% (+8)
Lab: 21% (-12)
Britain Predicts
January 15, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Newark would vote Conservative in an election held today:
Con: 37% (-2)
Ref: 23% (+8)
Lab: 21% (-12)
Britain Predicts
Con: 37% (-2)
Ref: 23% (+8)
Lab: 21% (-12)
Britain Predicts
Jenrick held greater sympathy among Reform voters (30%) than Tory (26%)
YouGov, Oct 2025
YouGov, Oct 2025
January 15, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Jenrick held greater sympathy among Reform voters (30%) than Tory (26%)
YouGov, Oct 2025
YouGov, Oct 2025
A run through of... everything electorally for the year ahead www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZPj...
Will Labour survive 2026? | UK Politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
www.youtube.com
January 2, 2026 at 1:23 AM
A run through of... everything electorally for the year ahead www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZPj...
Reposted by Ben Walker
Labour understands the public on immigration. But if Shabana Mahmood’s gamble fails, Reform will benefit.
📊 @bwalker.uk
📊 @bwalker.uk
Labour understands the public on immigration
But if Shabana Mahmood's gamble fails, Reform will benefit
www.newstatesman.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Labour understands the public on immigration. But if Shabana Mahmood’s gamble fails, Reform will benefit.
📊 @bwalker.uk
📊 @bwalker.uk
Looking at the Danish local elections net change in seats...
Net losers
SocDems (centre-left): -156
Venstre (centre-right): -99
Conservatives (right): -61
Net winners
Green Left (left): +80
DPP (far-right): +62
Liberal Alliance (right): +116
Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123
Hmm.
Net losers
SocDems (centre-left): -156
Venstre (centre-right): -99
Conservatives (right): -61
Net winners
Green Left (left): +80
DPP (far-right): +62
Liberal Alliance (right): +116
Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123
Hmm.
November 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Looking at the Danish local elections net change in seats...
Net losers
SocDems (centre-left): -156
Venstre (centre-right): -99
Conservatives (right): -61
Net winners
Green Left (left): +80
DPP (far-right): +62
Liberal Alliance (right): +116
Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123
Hmm.
Net losers
SocDems (centre-left): -156
Venstre (centre-right): -99
Conservatives (right): -61
Net winners
Green Left (left): +80
DPP (far-right): +62
Liberal Alliance (right): +116
Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123
Hmm.
Guardian — Police and Crime Commissioner roles to be abolished
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Guardian — Police and Crime Commissioner roles to be abolished
Reposted by Ben Walker
"The problem isn’t that we have a deliberately biased BBC, it’s that we have a BBC that has been consciously reduced in its scope and bullied into dumbing down and retreating."
www.ft.com/content/676c...
www.ft.com/content/676c...
Home - Financial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
FT.com
November 10, 2025 at 11:47 AM
"The problem isn’t that we have a deliberately biased BBC, it’s that we have a BBC that has been consciously reduced in its scope and bullied into dumbing down and retreating."
www.ft.com/content/676c...
www.ft.com/content/676c...
A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
Most important issue to voting New Yorkers who've given the win to Mamdani:
Cost of living: 56%
Crime: 22%
>> Immigration: 10%
via AP Voter Poll / SSRS
Cost of living: 56%
Crime: 22%
>> Immigration: 10%
via AP Voter Poll / SSRS
November 5, 2025 at 2:28 AM
Most important issue to voting New Yorkers who've given the win to Mamdani:
Cost of living: 56%
Crime: 22%
>> Immigration: 10%
via AP Voter Poll / SSRS
Cost of living: 56%
Crime: 22%
>> Immigration: 10%
via AP Voter Poll / SSRS
Well there we are www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 5, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Well there we are www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Decision Desk HQ calls NYC for Mamdani.
November 5, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Decision Desk HQ calls NYC for Mamdani.
Reposted by Ben Walker
If parties want credit for telling hard truths, they need to tell them when they're genuinely hard.
If Labour had told the truth about taxes & the costs of Brexit before the election, its majority would be smaller.
But it would have more real power & the public would put more faith in its judgment
If Labour had told the truth about taxes & the costs of Brexit before the election, its majority would be smaller.
But it would have more real power & the public would put more faith in its judgment
She is telling an accurate story of recent history - the triple punch of austerity, Brexit and covid. It's spot on. But it is terribly strange to say it now in government when you were not prepared to say it in opposition.
November 4, 2025 at 9:49 AM
If parties want credit for telling hard truths, they need to tell them when they're genuinely hard.
If Labour had told the truth about taxes & the costs of Brexit before the election, its majority would be smaller.
But it would have more real power & the public would put more faith in its judgment
If Labour had told the truth about taxes & the costs of Brexit before the election, its majority would be smaller.
But it would have more real power & the public would put more faith in its judgment
An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.
November 3, 2025 at 9:00 PM
An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.
£4bn raised from 4 per cent of households
November 1, 2025 at 10:41 PM
£4bn raised from 4 per cent of households
Reposted by Ben Walker
And listen to our snap analysis after it was released on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Podcast:
England's most deprived areas revealed
Podcast Episode · The New Statesman: politics and culture · 30/10/2025 · 24m
podcasts.apple.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:28 AM
And listen to our snap analysis after it was released on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Podcast:
New deprivation data: Britain is levelling down www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Britain is levelling down
Pockets of deprivation can be found in all corners of the country
www.newstatesman.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:30 AM
New deprivation data: Britain is levelling down www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Reposted by Ben Walker
The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing.
/3
/3
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing.
/3
/3
Spot the election campaign britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...
August 15, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Spot the election campaign britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...
Reposted by Ben Walker
Truly grim analysis of Labour’s electoral prospects in Wales by @bwalker.uk. 2026 looks to be a politically explosive year.
open.substack.com/pub/britaine...
open.substack.com/pub/britaine...
Death spiral? The state of Labour in Wales
Plus: the polling which shows how bad it really is
open.substack.com
August 2, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Truly grim analysis of Labour’s electoral prospects in Wales by @bwalker.uk. 2026 looks to be a politically explosive year.
open.substack.com/pub/britaine...
open.substack.com/pub/britaine...
Reposted by Ben Walker
New post: Will Labour's trumpeted re-Brexit deal bite it in the backside? www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Labour has put the EU back on the agenda. Will the party regret it?
The issue is low on the agenda for almost all British voters. But the reset could still be a political gift for the government.
www.newstatesman.com
May 29, 2025 at 12:15 PM
New post: Will Labour's trumpeted re-Brexit deal bite it in the backside? www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...