The British Election Study
@britishelectionstudy.com
Britain’s oldest social survey. We provide non-partisan and independent data and research on elections in Britain.
You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
academic.oup.com
September 12, 2025 at 2:39 PM
You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
The Economist's piece also references work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social on tactical voting in 2024, and a paper that includes BES team member @jack-bailey.co.uk on Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech.
September 12, 2025 at 2:39 PM
The Economist's piece also references work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social on tactical voting in 2024, and a paper that includes BES team member @jack-bailey.co.uk on Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech.
Labour's slump is significant.
Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain.
Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it
Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain.
Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Labour's slump is significant.
Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain.
Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it
Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain.
Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it
One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw
However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.
However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw
However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.
However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.
Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters.
This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.
This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters.
This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.
This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.
Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision.
These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives.
So, these party blocs matter.
These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives.
So, these party blocs matter.
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision.
These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives.
So, these party blocs matter.
These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives.
So, these party blocs matter.
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Labour's support has splintered.
Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk.
The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).
Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk.
The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Labour's support has splintered.
Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk.
The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).
Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk.
The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).
Labour's decline in support is remarkable.
Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).
Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).
September 3, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Labour's decline in support is remarkable.
Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).
Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).
Reposted by The British Election Study
We made some pithy explainers for you!
Please watch these short films:
Four tips for interpreting these local elections:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb...
Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...
Please watch these short films:
Four tips for interpreting these local elections:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb...
Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...
www.itv.com
April 15, 2025 at 10:36 AM
We made some pithy explainers for you!
Please watch these short films:
Four tips for interpreting these local elections:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb...
Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...
Please watch these short films:
Four tips for interpreting these local elections:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb...
Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...
Reposted by The British Election Study
With massive thanks to @martamiori.bsky.social, Rosalie Falla, Sadia Islam. A joy to work with. And all at @itvnews.bsky.social @itvnewspolitics.bsky.social for their support.
Data and analysis from @britishelectionstudy.com @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Data and analysis from @britishelectionstudy.com @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
April 15, 2025 at 10:36 AM
With massive thanks to @martamiori.bsky.social, Rosalie Falla, Sadia Islam. A joy to work with. And all at @itvnews.bsky.social @itvnewspolitics.bsky.social for their support.
Data and analysis from @britishelectionstudy.com @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Data and analysis from @britishelectionstudy.com @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social