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Join @rarohde.bsky.social, @hausfath.bsky.social, and the Berkeley Earth team on Wed 9/17 at 8am PDT / 5pm CET.
We’ll share updates from the August 2025 Temperature Report and discuss the latest global climate signals.
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Join @rarohde.bsky.social, @hausfath.bsky.social, and the Berkeley Earth team on Wed 9/17 at 8am PDT / 5pm CET.
We’ll share updates from the August 2025 Temperature Report and discuss the latest global climate signals.
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However, the rapid pace of man-made global warming is expected to continue, and more record years are inevitable.
12/
However, the rapid pace of man-made global warming is expected to continue, and more record years are inevitable.
12/
Following recent cooling, only a slight 1% chance of record warmth in 2025 remains.
11/
Following recent cooling, only a slight 1% chance of record warmth in 2025 remains.
11/
An ~50% chance exists that neutral conditions continue through the rest of the year, with a ~40% chance of La Niña returning late in the year, and only a modest chance of El Niño developing.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
10/
An ~50% chance exists that neutral conditions continue through the rest of the year, with a ~40% chance of La Niña returning late in the year, and only a modest chance of El Niño developing.
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
10/
Since April, the ocean average has fallen below the long-term trend. Modest additional cooling remains likely.
9/
Since April, the ocean average has fallen below the long-term trend. Modest additional cooling remains likely.
9/
A slightly larger excursion occurred in June 2003, preceding severe July & August heat waves that killed ~70,000 Europeans.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Eu...
8/
A slightly larger excursion occurred in June 2003, preceding severe July & August heat waves that killed ~70,000 Europeans.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Eu...
8/
This pattern, associated with the June heat dome over Western Europe, may further promote strong heat waves in Europe during the rest of summer.
7/
This pattern, associated with the June heat dome over Western Europe, may further promote strong heat waves in Europe during the rest of summer.
7/
No significant areas had near record lows.
6/
No significant areas had near record lows.
6/
Warmth was particularly noteworthy in Western Europe and Central Asia.
Unusual cooling was present in India, Australia, and S. America.
5/
Warmth was particularly noteworthy in Western Europe and Central Asia.
Unusual cooling was present in India, Australia, and S. America.
5/
Nevertheless, the land average was still the fifth warmest for June in the observational record.
4/
Nevertheless, the land average was still the fifth warmest for June in the observational record.
4/
The exceptional warmth in 2023/2024 appears to have dissipated, and in the short-term we expect global means to stay closer to the long-term trend.
3/
The exceptional warmth in 2023/2024 appears to have dissipated, and in the short-term we expect global means to stay closer to the long-term trend.
3/
This was only slightly cooler than May 2025, but is sharply lower than the first few months of 2025.
2/
This was only slightly cooler than May 2025, but is sharply lower than the first few months of 2025.
2/
Third warmest June in the instrumental record.
Similar conditions to May, but sharply cooler than earlier in 2025.
Neutral conditions in the Pacific.
2025 is very likely to be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year.
berkeleyearth.org/june-2025-te...
🧵
Third warmest June in the instrumental record.
Similar conditions to May, but sharply cooler than earlier in 2025.
Neutral conditions in the Pacific.
2025 is very likely to be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year.
berkeleyearth.org/june-2025-te...
🧵
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However, the rapid pace of man-made global warming is expected to continue, and more record years are inevitable.
11/
However, the rapid pace of man-made global warming is expected to continue, and more record years are inevitable.
11/
Following the sharp relative cooling in May, only a modest 5.8% chance of record warmth in 2025 remains.
10/
Following the sharp relative cooling in May, only a modest 5.8% chance of record warmth in 2025 remains.
10/
Neutral conditions are forecast by CPC/IRI to continue for some months. A moderate chance of La Niña and a small chance of El Niño follows late in 2025.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
9/
Neutral conditions are forecast by CPC/IRI to continue for some months. A moderate chance of La Niña and a small chance of El Niño follows late in 2025.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
9/
Since April, the ocean average has fallen below the long-term trend. Modest additional cooling remains likely.
8/
Since April, the ocean average has fallen below the long-term trend. Modest additional cooling remains likely.
8/
In combination, these factors helped keep May temperatures down in some areas to a level not seen for over 100 years.
7/
In combination, these factors helped keep May temperatures down in some areas to a level not seen for over 100 years.
7/
Unusually, areas in northern Maharashtra and southwest Madhya Pradesh India obtained near record lows.
6/
Unusually, areas in northern Maharashtra and southwest Madhya Pradesh India obtained near record lows.
6/
Warmth was particularly noteworthy in the Middle East and in the oceans around the United Kingdom.
Unusual cooling was present in India.
5/
Warmth was particularly noteworthy in the Middle East and in the oceans around the United Kingdom.
Unusual cooling was present in India.
5/
Nevertheless, the land average was still sufficiently warm to register as the 5th warmest land-average for May on record.
4/
Nevertheless, the land average was still sufficiently warm to register as the 5th warmest land-average for May on record.
4/