Ben Zipperer
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benzipperer.org
Ben Zipperer
@benzipperer.org
7.7K followers 680 following 620 posts
Economist at @epi.org

https://www.epi.org/people/ben-zipperer/
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benzipperer.org
For the full paper
Troup Howard Mengqi Wang Dayin Zhang October 2024 Abstract Cracking Down, Pricing Up: Housing Supply in the Wake of Mass Deportation US housing markets have faced a secular shortage of housing supply in the past decade, contributing to a steady decline in housing affordability. Most supply-side explana- tions in the literature have tended to focus on the distortionary effect of local housing regulations. This paper provides novel evidence on the interplay between residential construction, labor supplied to the construction industry, and immigration policy. We exploit the staggered rollout of a national increase in immigration enforcement to iden- tify negative shocks to construction sector employment that are likely unrelated to local housing market conditions. Treated counties experience large and persistent reductions in construction workforce, residential homebuilding, and increases in home prices. Fur- ther, evidence suggests that undocumented labor is a complement to domestic labor: an indirect outcome of deporting undocumented construction workers is net job loss for US-born workers, especially in higher-skilled occupations. We find that any demand- side downward pressure on home prices linked to increased deportations is temporary and quickly dominated by the supply-side impact. JEL Codes: R31. J60
November 13, 2025 at 11:53 PM
benzipperer.org
Deportations actually _increase_ housing prices because they shrink the construction industry.

The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
Figure 9 from a paper by Troup Howard, Mengqi Wang, and Dayin Zhang showing the house price response to the Secure Communities immigration enforcement policy
November 13, 2025 at 10:52 PM
benzipperer.org
There is no pathway to upward wage mobility as an Amazon driver, as opposed to drivers at a unionized workplace like UPS

Stark figure from @dschneider.bsky.social @profsheenalives.bsky.social @juliesulabor.bsky.social Kevin Bruey
Line plot of average wages by tenure and a bar plot of distribution of workers by tenure at Amazon, UPS, and FedEx from a recent Shit Project report. The figure title is "Wage Returns to Job Tenure and the Distribution of Job Tenure for Delivery Workers by Firm"
November 12, 2025 at 3:10 PM
benzipperer.org
Actually Trump's firings disproportionately harm veterans and their families, since the federal government is their single largest employer.
Table from the Economic Policy Institute showing the number of civilian federal government employees who are veterans and spouses of veterans. The title of the table is "The federal government employs 900,000 veterans and veteran spouses and military spouses"
November 11, 2025 at 6:15 PM
benzipperer.org
here's hoping this unwinds gradually and sooner rather than later
Line plot of the historical monthly S&P price to earnings ratio. The title of the plot is "Stock valuations are approaching 2000 bubble peaks".
November 11, 2025 at 3:47 AM
benzipperer.org
Generally Revelio's first release is a little lower than BLS, though maybe that has flipped recently
line plot of Revelio and BLS monthly first release employment changes since 2023
November 6, 2025 at 3:26 PM
benzipperer.org
Trump's deportation agenda could shrink the US child care sector by 15%
Table from an EPI report titled "Trump's escalation of deportations could destroy nearly 6 million jobs: Employment losses caused by increasing deportations to 4,000,000 over four years" showing estimated overall, construction, and child care employment losses for immigrants and US-born workers.
November 5, 2025 at 4:12 PM
benzipperer.org
previous increases in immigration enforcement caused child care centers to simply shut down
screenshot of the highlights and abstract of the article by Umair Ali, Jessica H Brown, and Chris M Herbst titled "Secure communities as immigration enforcement: How secure is the child care market?". Highlights • We study the impact of Secure Communities immigration enforcement on child care • Equilibrium wages and employment in child care fall for both immigrants and natives • Number of child care centers falls, as does children’s participation in care • Effect larger for higher SES children and in areas with more undocumented individuals Abstract Immigrants comprise nearly 20% of the child care workforce in the U.S. This paper studies the impact of a major immigration enforcement policy, Secure Communities (SC), on the structure and functioning of the child care market. Relying on the staggered introduction of SC across counties between 2008 and 2014, we find that the program reduced children’s participation in center-based child care programs. The estimated reductions are substantially larger among advantaged children and in jurisdictions with a greater fraction of undocumented individuals. We also find that SC reduced the equilibrium supply and wages of immigrant and native workers in the center-based sector as well as the number of center-based facilities. There is no compensating increase in the home-based or private household sectors. Our findings suggest that immigrants and natives are likely to be complements in child care service production.
November 5, 2025 at 4:09 PM
benzipperer.org
good fall day
two kids goofing around in a leaf pile
November 3, 2025 at 12:51 AM
benzipperer.org
BEA website may be breaking... the API seems to be up but this is not a good sign.
Message on the BEA website that says "Info: The interactive data is being updated with new or revised data at this time. Data should be available shortly. Please try back later."
October 29, 2025 at 1:50 PM
benzipperer.org
Let's also please see some fur babies and pumpkins
A beagle mix lying on some fall leaves in front of a pumpkin
October 24, 2025 at 6:13 PM
benzipperer.org
when your dog is on so many meds that he gets a plate of ham+pills nigiri
a small brown dog looking at a plate of rice and ham hiding his pills
October 24, 2025 at 12:27 AM
benzipperer.org
Perhaps Waller's comments here are what angered ADP, previewing possibly unpublished ADP data www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
I also look at timely data that Federal Reserve staff maintains in collaboration with the employment services firm ADP to construct a measure of weekly payroll employment, which covers about 20 percent of the nation's private workforce. This measure is comparable to the one ADP publishes. The current May–July contour for the staff measure of ADP-based private employment is broadly consistent with that of the Current Employment Statistics numbers. And in the weeks after the July jobs report's reference period, preliminary estimates from ADP show continued deterioration.
October 22, 2025 at 2:29 PM
benzipperer.org
excited to read this new book from the great historian and organizer @dskamper.bsky.social
Photo of a hardcover book on a table. The book is titled "Who's got the power? The resurgence of American unions" by Dave Kamper with a foreword by Sara Nelson
October 21, 2025 at 7:35 PM
benzipperer.org
Example #RStats script searching the "top 5" economics journals for mentions of unions
An R script containing library(tidyverse) library(openalexR) top_5 = c( aer = "0002-8282", ecta = "0012-9682", jpe = "0022-3808", qje = "0033-5533", restud = "0034-6527" ) results = top_5 |> map( ~ oa_fetch( entity = "works", search = 'unions OR union', primary_location.source.issn = .x, from_publication_date = "2020-01-01", to_publication_date = "2025-12-31", ) ) |> list_rbind(names_to = "journal_abb") output of the R script results |> select( journal_abb, journal = source_display_name, year = publication_year, title, abstract, doi, relevance_score ) |> arrange(desc(relevance_score))
October 16, 2025 at 3:41 PM
benzipperer.org
incredible how this zombie stat will just not die. it's just false! even the top 10% of **spenders** adds up to about 25% of consumption
Table from the BLS and BEA showing that the top 10% of spenders accounted for 25.7% of all consumption in 2023.
October 15, 2025 at 3:05 PM
benzipperer.org
For the CPS, it seems like the reference week is this coming week and the interview week starts Oct 19

www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
Table of reference weeks for the CPS from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website
October 11, 2025 at 11:00 PM
benzipperer.org
yes, it's simply false that international students crowd out US-born students
The Impact of International Students on US Colleges: Higher Education as a Service Export Mingyu Chen June 3, 2021 Abstract Between 2005 and 2016, international enrollment in US higher education nearly doubled. I examine how trade shocks in education affect public universities’ decision-making. I construct a shift-share instrument to exploit institutions’ historical networks with different origins of international students, income growth, and exchange-rate fluctuations. Contrary to claims that US-born students are crowded out, I find that international students increase schools’ funding via tuition payments, which leads to increased in-state enrollment and lower tuition prices. Schools also keep steady per-student spending and recruit more students with high math scores. Lastly, states allocate more appropriations to universities that attract fewer international students.
October 10, 2025 at 6:40 PM
benzipperer.org
finally watched Z, easily the best political thriller I've ever seen
scene from the movie Z (1969), in which Manuel is running from a car chasing him down a street
October 4, 2025 at 2:32 AM
benzipperer.org
leftover beef stew taco lunch still very high on the delicious:difficult scale
a couple of beef tacos on a green plate with some apple slices on the side
October 3, 2025 at 5:03 PM
benzipperer.org
Nice analysis by @ashwu.bsky.social of likely government payroll reductions by agency over the last several months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics in particular may have already shrunk by 11% relative to 2024
Table showing employment levels by subagency in the Department of Labor on September 2024 and recently, and the associated percent change
October 1, 2025 at 10:50 PM
benzipperer.org
Fewer international college students means reduced revenue for schools and therefore higher tuition prices and fewer US-born students
The Impact of International Students on US Colleges: Higher Education as a Service Export∗ Mingyu Chen† June 3, 2021 Abstract Between 2005 and 2016, international enrollment in US higher education nearly dou- bled. I examine how trade shocks in education affect public universities’ decision- making. I construct a shift-share instrument to exploit institutions’ historical networks with different origins of international students, income growth, and exchange-rate fluctuations. Contrary to claims that US-born students are crowded out, I find that international students increase schools’ funding via tuition payments, which leads to increased in-state enrollment and lower tuition prices. Schools also keep steady per-student spending and recruit more students with high math scores. Lastly, states allocate more appropriations to universities that attract fewer international students.
September 30, 2025 at 12:34 AM
benzipperer.org
a summer's still here negroni
a negroni in a glass next to a grill with chicken
September 28, 2025 at 10:42 PM
benzipperer.org
Latest data show that ICE is deporting people at a rate of just under 500 thousand per year

An enormous increase in deportations but still far below Trump's annual goal of 1 million
Line graph showing average daily ICE removals titled "Trump is deporting 1300 people every day"
September 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
benzipperer.org
use as many as will fit in a single layer, and also you can use any pan, skillet, whatever and it works really well with other fruit. it is a very forgiving recipe
September 25, 2025 at 1:41 AM