Ben Vincent, DPhil
@benvincent.bsky.social
Data Scientist | Bayes | Causal reasoning | Python + Julia | Ex-academic | #MMT
drbenvincent.github.io
drbenvincent.github.io
My EV does 3.1–4 miles per kWh and my off-peak rate is 8.5p/kWh. That’s about 2.13–2.74p per mile in electricity.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
November 26, 2025 at 2:08 PM
My EV does 3.1–4 miles per kWh and my off-peak rate is 8.5p/kWh. That’s about 2.13–2.74p per mile in electricity.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
The very first thing the Prime Minister does is use the household budget metaphor.
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
November 26, 2025 at 12:05 PM
The very first thing the Prime Minister does is use the household budget metaphor.
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."
Why is the government trying to mislead the country?
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
#CausalPy 0.6.0 adds Bayesian Propensity Score Enhancements!
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
November 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
#CausalPy 0.6.0 adds Bayesian Propensity Score Enhancements!
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.
🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
🚀 #CausalPy 0.6.0 is live!
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
November 19, 2025 at 3:19 PM
🚀 #CausalPy 0.6.0 is live!
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
A key highlight: the new Prior class, enabling fully custom #Bayesian priors and advanced setups like spike-and-slab or synthetic control models.
More flexibility, more transparency, better causal modeling.
🧩 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗛𝘂𝗯: dub.link/QrkzW8C
Random data viz. Solar generation from our modest array. From May 2023 onwards.
November 3, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Random data viz. Solar generation from our modest array. From May 2023 onwards.
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
I've finally got around to curating a selection of films about the #climate crisis 🎥
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
November 1, 2025 at 10:17 AM
I've finally got around to curating a selection of films about the #climate crisis 🎥
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
Lost like this is going to be interesting. This guy knows more than me, no doubt, but at 7m 7s he says something which seems totally wrong. That there is no government money, only private bank money 🤨
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
Russell Napier, "Money Creation in Peace and War".
YouTube video by LoM
youtu.be
October 31, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Lost like this is going to be interesting. This guy knows more than me, no doubt, but at 7m 7s he says something which seems totally wrong. That there is no government money, only private bank money 🤨
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
youtu.be/GKvSMtqhccw?...
Every time the chancellor or the media mention fiscal black holes, I just can’t help think about this video which explains it in a way that a 5 year old would understand.
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
Fun With Emojis - Sectoral Balances
YouTube video by James Rosier
youtu.be
October 16, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Every time the chancellor or the media mention fiscal black holes, I just can’t help think about this video which explains it in a way that a 5 year old would understand.
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
#sectoralbalances
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
If I can’t make it live (toddler duties) can I ask, “Sectoral balances seem pretty easy to explain. Would you say that this is a good gateway drug into MMT?”
LIVE tonight at 8 pm, introducing Scotland's Sectoral Balances.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UFR7dK0th4
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UFR7dK0th4
September 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
If I can’t make it live (toddler duties) can I ask, “Sectoral balances seem pretty easy to explain. Would you say that this is a good gateway drug into MMT?”
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
Very informative preprint written by several leading causal inference authors that addresses 12 current issues in the field.
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
September 14, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Very informative preprint written by several leading causal inference authors that addresses 12 current issues in the field.
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099
Impedance scales are rubbish. They indicate no change - very demoralising. Using skinfold callipers reveals the truth - fat loss and lean mass gain 💪🏻🏋🏻♂️
September 13, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Impedance scales are rubbish. They indicate no change - very demoralising. Using skinfold callipers reveals the truth - fat loss and lean mass gain 💪🏻🏋🏻♂️
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
The most recent Scottish Government prospectus for independence announced its desire to follow the EU's fiscal rules, the "SGP", once Scotland was independent and BEFORE it joined the EU. No one has ever considered the economic impact of that decision until now. Thread. 1/10
August 19, 2025 at 3:02 PM
The most recent Scottish Government prospectus for independence announced its desire to follow the EU's fiscal rules, the "SGP", once Scotland was independent and BEFORE it joined the EU. No one has ever considered the economic impact of that decision until now. Thread. 1/10
This is quite a painful watch for anyone who understands #MMT. Governments are not households! youtu.be/KHdUAZnGS50?...
Why your government is about to raise YOUR taxes
YouTube video by Garys Economics
youtu.be
August 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM
This is quite a painful watch for anyone who understands #MMT. Governments are not households! youtu.be/KHdUAZnGS50?...
The UK's Online Safety Act has caused a massive increases in Google searches for "VPN."
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
July 28, 2025 at 9:37 AM
The UK's Online Safety Act has caused a massive increases in Google searches for "VPN."
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
Quick little Bayesian Causal analysis of Google Trends data. See more on the linked in post here: www.linkedin.com/posts/benjam...
This is a good example of an (ex) MP not understanding fiat currency. The hard money view is so appealing, people find it hard to escape from its gravitational pull. An alternative argument would be that £ has value because we go to prison if we don’t pay our taxes. #mmt
youtu.be/Li3L1s5VKK0?...
youtu.be/Li3L1s5VKK0?...
Fiat money depends on confidence, woke designs undermine it.
YouTube video by Jacob Rees-Mogg
youtu.be
July 23, 2025 at 6:12 AM
This is a good example of an (ex) MP not understanding fiat currency. The hard money view is so appealing, people find it hard to escape from its gravitational pull. An alternative argument would be that £ has value because we go to prison if we don’t pay our taxes. #mmt
youtu.be/Li3L1s5VKK0?...
youtu.be/Li3L1s5VKK0?...
Hope you don’t mind @patriciapino.bsky.social & co, but I’ve been trying to point YouTubers in your direction. I assume you’d be receptive? IMHO getting some YouTubers savvy on MMT would be force multiplier.
This channel has showed some interest youtube.com/@maximilienr...
#mmt
This channel has showed some interest youtube.com/@maximilienr...
#mmt
July 15, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Hope you don’t mind @patriciapino.bsky.social & co, but I’ve been trying to point YouTubers in your direction. I assume you’d be receptive? IMHO getting some YouTubers savvy on MMT would be force multiplier.
This channel has showed some interest youtube.com/@maximilienr...
#mmt
This channel has showed some interest youtube.com/@maximilienr...
#mmt
Hi @octopus.energy I love the app, but the estimated costs is confusing. The graph includes standing charges, but the question mark icon next to the estimated cost says it doesn't include fixed charges. Any chance you could clear that up?
July 14, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Hi @octopus.energy I love the app, but the estimated costs is confusing. The graph includes standing charges, but the question mark icon next to the estimated cost says it doesn't include fixed charges. Any chance you could clear that up?
Anyone familiar with the VO2 max ➡️ longevity literature? Isn't relative VO2 max (ml/kg/min) a terrible measure, being conflated with body mass? Isn't this collider bias / backdoor path city?
#causality
#causality
July 9, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Anyone familiar with the VO2 max ➡️ longevity literature? Isn't relative VO2 max (ml/kg/min) a terrible measure, being conflated with body mass? Isn't this collider bias / backdoor path city?
#causality
#causality
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
🚨 We’re opening our private Bayesian modeling workshops to the public — for the first time
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
July 7, 2025 at 5:50 PM
🚨 We’re opening our private Bayesian modeling workshops to the public — for the first time
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
Reposted by Ben Vincent, DPhil
How I explain frequentism vs Bayesianism to my students
June 24, 2025 at 12:29 PM
How I explain frequentism vs Bayesianism to my students
CausalPy hits 1000 stars on GitHub 🤩
🚀 CausalPy just hit 1,000+ ⭐ on GitHub — and crossed 120K downloads!
When A/B tests stop, CausalPy starts.
Bayesian. Interpretable. Open-source.
Huge thanks to everyone who’s contributed to the project.
👉Checkout CausalPy: dub.link/causalpy
#CausalPy #PyMCLabs #OpenSource #Bayesian #DataScience
When A/B tests stop, CausalPy starts.
Bayesian. Interpretable. Open-source.
Huge thanks to everyone who’s contributed to the project.
👉Checkout CausalPy: dub.link/causalpy
#CausalPy #PyMCLabs #OpenSource #Bayesian #DataScience
June 23, 2025 at 5:20 PM
CausalPy hits 1000 stars on GitHub 🤩
What I want Apple Intelligence to do (non-exhaustive):
- I want to interact with and and ask questions of pdf files in Preview, and web pages in Safari
- Way better understanding of what I’m trying to type when using the keyboard swipe input method (as opposed to the traditional tap tap method)
- I want to interact with and and ask questions of pdf files in Preview, and web pages in Safari
- Way better understanding of what I’m trying to type when using the keyboard swipe input method (as opposed to the traditional tap tap method)
June 18, 2025 at 6:48 PM
What I want Apple Intelligence to do (non-exhaustive):
- I want to interact with and and ask questions of pdf files in Preview, and web pages in Safari
- Way better understanding of what I’m trying to type when using the keyboard swipe input method (as opposed to the traditional tap tap method)
- I want to interact with and and ask questions of pdf files in Preview, and web pages in Safari
- Way better understanding of what I’m trying to type when using the keyboard swipe input method (as opposed to the traditional tap tap method)
This video will change your life*.
#MMT ‘ers need to do more like this.
Sectoral balances is definitely over route “in”.
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
*or at least how you understand the world.
#MMT ‘ers need to do more like this.
Sectoral balances is definitely over route “in”.
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
*or at least how you understand the world.
Fun With Emojis - Sectoral Balances
YouTube video by James Rosier
youtu.be
May 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
This video will change your life*.
#MMT ‘ers need to do more like this.
Sectoral balances is definitely over route “in”.
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
*or at least how you understand the world.
#MMT ‘ers need to do more like this.
Sectoral balances is definitely over route “in”.
youtu.be/mtDzC3i9i6A?...
*or at least how you understand the world.