Benjamin Guinaudeau
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benguinaudeau.bsky.social
Benjamin Guinaudeau
@benguinaudeau.bsky.social
850 followers 270 following 36 posts
Assistant Prof of PoliSci @ULaval (Québec)

Politics, data science, and hacking stuff in #rstats.

🇫🇷 in 🇨🇦 he/him

Prev: @CSMaP_NYU, @UniKonstanz and @Meta CDS

Website: http://benguinaudeau.com
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
aurman21.bsky.social
Are you a CSS researcher using LLMs for text annotation tasks? Do you integrate the results into downstream statistical analyses?

Turns out, even with SOTA models you have a 31-50% chance of coming to wrong conclusions this way!

Learn more about this and mitigation strategies in our new preprint 👇
joachimbaumann.bsky.social Joachim Baumann @joachimbaumann.bsky.social · Sep 12
🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**.

Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
We present our new preprint titled "Large Language Model Hacking: Quantifying the Hidden Risks of Using LLMs for Text Annotation". We quantify LLM hacking risk through systematic replication of 37 diverse computational social science annotation tasks. For these tasks, we use a combined set of 2,361 realistic hypotheses that researchers might test using these annotations. Then, we collect 13 million LLM annotations across plausible LLM configurations. These annotations feed into 1.4 million regressions testing the hypotheses. For a hypothesis with no true effect (ground truth $p > 0.05$), different LLM configurations yield conflicting conclusions. Checkmarks indicate correct statistical conclusions matching ground truth; crosses indicate LLM hacking -- incorrect conclusions due to annotation errors. Across all experiments, LLM hacking occurs in 31-50\% of cases even with highly capable models. Since minor configuration changes can flip scientific conclusions, from correct to incorrect, LLM hacking can be exploited to present anything as statistically significant.
September 12, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
solmg.bsky.social
TODAY Aug 28 - "Politics in 60 Seconds: Short-Form Video, TikTok, and Political Communication" at #APSA2025 -

2 PM, VCC West Ballroom B

Chair: @eunjikim.bsky.social. Discussant: @mollyeroberts.bsky.social
September 11, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
andrew.heiss.phd
Just made this little diagram and it's so pretty! {ggdiagram} is really neat for these types of graphics #rstats

(code here: gist.github.com/andrewheiss/... )
Diagram showing connections between several nodes (INGO issue contentiousness and Government preferences are connected and both lead to Enforcement of law, which—jointly with INGO preferences and resources—leads to INGO operational space)
September 8, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
indubioproreto.bsky.social
Quite a strong final statement: "Descriptive research is important and it is a pity that the general obsession with causal estimates disincentivizes researchers from attempting to publish careful and detailed description."
July 9, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
epssnet.bsky.social
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵
June 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
christinagahn.bsky.social
Excited to kick off #EPSA2025 on Day 1, Panel 1! 🎉

I’ll present my co-authored research with @michaelimre.bsky.social on 50 years of gender representation in political science publications. We analyze nearly 100,000 articles across 72 journals to uncover long-term trends. 🔍

@epsanet.bsky.social
Proportion of Papers by Year and Team Type
June 24, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
polanalysis.bsky.social
Currently in FirstView: In “Crowdsourced Adaptive Surveys,” @yamilrvelez.bsky.social introduces a methodology (CSAS) that converts open-ended text from participants into survey items and applies a multi-armed bandit algorithm to determine which questions should be prioritized in the survey.
June 4, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
favstats.eu
If you know me, you know I am obsessed with building dashboards. 😅

Well, I am excited to share that @ernesto-deleon.com, Max Paulus, & I were awarded a small grant to build an #rstats package to make them accessible to other researchers.

And we’re hiring a Research Assistant to help us do that!
April 25, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
illdottore.bsky.social
Ryan speaks so well to this moment - how we the faculty have held our universities to a higher standard, how we can move them to right action by speaking loudly and together, and how universities will only continue to on the right side of history through our effort.
A lot of people have real fears. There are people on this campus who are going to lose jobs. There are people who are worried about losing their immigration status. We need to be here for those of us that are vulnerable. The most vulnerable people in our community have way more courage than me or most of the rest of us. But courageous people need our love and support too. Use our power to give that to them. We also have to use our power to keep insisting that Harvard do better. The administration did the right thing by standing up to external attacks on academic freedom. But we must remember that academic freedom at Harvard has also come under attack from within. We have had center directors dismissed, programs paused, and partnerships canceled. These are threats to academic freedom. If we sacrifice our soul in this fight against authoritarianism, we have done the bidding of the authoritarians for them. We all must hold each other and our leadership accountable to not let that happen. , you know, Harvard has been admired before. Before the American Civil War, there were thinkers here who said Harvard must stand on the side of abolitionism. And you know what? There were people who said that that position was wrong and we had to stay out of politics. And it took time but eventually Harvard stood for what was right. And before World War 2, there were people who said Harvard had to stay neutral in the face of fascism. But instead Harvard chose to take a stand. We see now that Harvard was on the right side of history and we can be proud. And in this moment too, we are on the right side of history. But there is going to be tremendous pressure not to be – both internally and externally. So, we must be in this struggle together. We must support each other. And if we can do that, then we will look back on what we did with pride.
April 18, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
favstats.eu
Excited to present our large-scale algorithm audit study where our team collaborated with 30 political parties to investigate bias in political ad delivery at the #AlgoSoc2025 conference!

Come to the poster session at 17:30 today if you want to know more :)

favstats.github.io/EuroAlgos/po...
April 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
iguinaudeau.bsky.social
🧵 Germany is heading toward a new ⚫️🔴GroKo, and Merz and SPD are pushing through a constitutional reform that will allow €1.000 billion in new debt. What happened to the CDU’s promise of budgetary rigor?
Our WP with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social sheds light on this. Let’s talk coalition politics.👇
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
verenakunz.bsky.social
The #TaDa Speaker Series is back for the spring 🎉 We're looking forward to an exciting line-up of talks by @prashantgarg.bsky.social, @miriamschirmer.bsky.social, @chdausgaard.bsky.social, @taniseceron.bsky.social, @lukashetzer.bsky.social, and Catarina Pereira! More infos at tada.cool & on Slack ⬇️
The flyer shows the overview of the programme for the Text-as-Data Spring Term Speaker Series 2025, which usually takes place on Wednesdays at 5pm Berlin time.
March 4, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
webjournalist.bsky.social
To universities: He pushed you to rewrite websites, he is pushing you to the next line.

What are you going to do?
March 4, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
jonmellon.bsky.social
New WP with @vincentab.bsky.social @ryancbriggs.net. We use LLMs and RAs to track publication trends in polisci. Here’s how subfields have changed in AJPS and JOP osf.io/v7fe8
February 10, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
iguinaudeau.bsky.social
The French Parliament has just brought down Michel Barnier’s government via a vote of no confidence – a first since 1962. A 🧵 on what is happening, what to expect next - and how the far right is capitalizing on the crisis.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
jbgruber.bsky.social
As more #rstats folks arrived here recently: you can use the Bluesky API for free and there are several packages for it. You can find the one @benguinaudeau.bsky.social @favstats.bsky.social and I wrote here:

jbgruber.github.io/atrrr/

And a fun bot project: www.johannesbgruber.eu/post/2024-01...
Wrapper for the AT Protocol Behind Bluesky
Wraps the AT Protocol (Authenticated Transfer Protocol) behind Bluesky <https://bsky.social>. Functions can be used for, among others, retrieving posts and followers from the network or posting conten...
jbgruber.github.io
November 16, 2024 at 12:13 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
jbgruber.bsky.social
I didn't even notice CRAN already approved it, but our (@benguinaudeau.bsky.social & @favstats.bsky.social) #rstats package to interact with 🦋 got an update 😁
October 4, 2024 at 12:43 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
Seriously? Not a single woman instructor, presenter, or organizer for a two week workshop. Do better.

www.law.northwestern.edu/research-fac...
Main Workshop, Workshop on Research Design for Causal Inference, Faculty & Research: Northwestern Pritzker School of Law
www.law.northwestern.edu
March 18, 2024 at 9:09 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
beamagistro.bsky.social
Excited to share my latest paper out at PSRM
"Attitudes toward automation and the demand for policies addressing job loss: the effects of information about trade-offs" with Peter Loewen, @bartbonikowski.bsky.social, @sborwein.bsky.social and @blakelw.bsky.social.Open access here: bit.ly/49gEWg3
February 16, 2024 at 5:26 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
jbgruber.bsky.social
Our Bluesky #rstats package has made its way to CRAN 🥳

@benguinaudeau.bsky.social @favstats.bsky.social
cranberriesfeed.bsky.social CRAN Package Updates Bot @cranberriesfeed.bsky.social · Jan 10
New CRAN package atrrr with initial version 0.0.2
#rstats
https://cran.r-project.org/package=atrrr
CRAN - Package atrrr
https://cran.r-project.org/package=atrrr
cran.r-project.org
January 10, 2024 at 3:23 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
jbgruber.bsky.social
We had to rename our ATproto/Bluesky #rstats package as CRAN does not allow submitting packages that already existed at some point (even archived once).

So here we (me + @benguinaudeau.bsky.social and @favstats.bsky.social)(re-)introduce {atrrr}: jbgruber.github.io/atrrr/
Wrapper for the AT Protocol Behind Bluesky
This package wraps the AT Protocol (Authenticated Transfer Protocol) behind Bluesky <https://blueskyweb.xyz>. Functions can be used for, among others, retrieving posts and followers from the...
jbgruber.github.io
January 4, 2024 at 4:20 PM
benguinaudeau.bsky.social
Genuinely opening a colleague's script to smoothly transition again into working after the X-Mas break. When suddenly... 🤌😵
January 3, 2024 at 4:49 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
fortunato.bsky.social
Inspired by the monotony of my review queue, here are 10 open American politics research questions that DO NOT involve the attitudes of Democrats and Republicans and can be answered with public data

Please, study literally anything other than the attitudes of Democrats and Republicans.

Here we go!
December 23, 2023 at 10:08 PM
Reposted by Benjamin Guinaudeau
mathieugallard.bsky.social
🇫🇷📊 Si 62% des Français pensent que le RN sort renforcé de ce vote, plus d'un Français sur deux jugent que E. Macron (52%), E. Borne (50%) ou leur parti Renaissance (53%) en sortent au contraire affaiblis. Les LR sortent plutôt renforcés (37%) aux yeux des Français.
December 24, 2023 at 2:57 PM
benguinaudeau.bsky.social
Can't wait for the chapter on the *FLYING DUTCHMAN*. If only they had known that *E=MC2 TROOPER*
#AoE
sean-gailmard.bsky.social Sean Gailmard @sean-gailmard.bsky.social · Dec 20
Coming in 2024! Cover art day is a good day.

There are also blurbs and you can even order a copy: tinyurl.com/4e35mjef

Intro chapter: www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~gailmard/em...
Gailmard, Agents of Empire: cover
December 21, 2023 at 3:48 AM