Yeah that's a good point. My speculation would be that things would be harder for OSINT in the VZ situation (shorter distances for any aircraft, several false alarms already from show-of-force missions, lots of sea-based assets) but maybe we'll get some signs

I imagine it is a combination. Her ambitions (and Trump interfering) is her motive to break with trump. The Epstein files is her opportunity.

Not a mil/OSINT expert, but I doubt that flight trackers will give us any timely signals besides an inventory of aircraft in the buildup. We've already had B52's + B1's doing show-of-force right outside the VZ border. I doubt we'll have any signs of imminent action until Tomahawks are in the air

FWIW KC-135R traffic like that seems to be normal (at least normal for these times). The same aircraft (59-1459) was spotted doing a similar trip back in September

Replacing the BLS could be a lucrative opportunity

Yeah, even if the initial campaign can be narrow + mostly bombing/SOF, there's a lot more potential for the U.S. for the scope to expand in order to stabilize things post-Maduro

I think the worst case is not Vietnam 2.0 but Iraq 2.0, where the U.S. gets sucked into a messy nation-building project

Makes me thing their staff + comms folks are paralyzed with the PR crisis here

The one in Labor Day? Yeah he (or at least his account) still posted through it, and some of the posts actually made suspicions more intense (ex. golfing with Gruden may have been using an old pic as "proof of life")

That's about where he bottomed out in his first term (excl. his very bitter end)

We'll find out soon whether how committed his base really is

We'll see what eventually happens with the Epstein files votes + any happens, but this is a reminder that RW media *will* circle the wagons for Trump. The information ecosystem is really bad right now, and we've see that Trump scandals have a very weak effect at moving the needle on support

The "SPIN DOCTORS" label on the Fox story kills me lol

If you're concerned, please blow in a paper bag for a sec, drink some water, and then read this thread. If you're *still* concerned, I'm not sure what to tell you.

I'm guessing we're gonna see a tweet from Trump this week endorsing her for governor + her mind will change real quick

RTY also tracked S&P 600, so it looks like overall small cap underperformance. There was also the huge diff between SPX vs. equal weight.

The weak breadth / flight to mega-caps has me worried. I'm interested to see where VIX levels out given the increasing concentration.