Venianimov often kayaked in areas of the Aleutians, even open water, on baidarkas. Over the years, an estimated 2-3,000km.

Wordle 1,631 2/6*

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So, rather than probing weakness and causing any mistakes, Putin forced NATO into a stronger, more unified posture. A costly error overall.

The ROE tightened against Russia, leading to a SACEUR advantage. Exposed an immediate cost imbalance against NATO relevant actors, but long term against Russia since this incident will likely justify sustained budget and posture.

My thought is that this wasn’t just symbolism. The incursion shut Polish airports, threatened Rzeszów (NATO’s Ukraine lifeline), and led directly to Operation Eastern Sentry—new allied jets, radars, and air defenses on the eastern flank. Poland also took it to the UNSC, building broader legitimacy.

Really solid piece on Poland’s Article 4 move after the Russian drone incursion. Paul is right: Warsaw used the consultation clause as a kind of “Article 5 lite,” showing how NATO’s political machinery works before anyone talks about collective defense. Smart framing.