Fred Carver
@arbeider4fred.bsky.social
Advice for hire. Occasional writing, editing, speaking. Atrocity Prevention, Peacekeeping, UN, South Asia. Based in Bergen, NO. https://frederichcarver.com
Pinned
Fred Carver
@arbeider4fred.bsky.social
· Aug 14
Here's a consolidated thread of my marathon yesterday. If you're impressed, and able, please do consider sponsoring me by giving funds to SAST via this link. They really do incredible work. www.gofundme.com/f/urgent-tor...
This tracks. Just pass an executive order announcing the annexation of Greenland and that Thule space base is its new capital. No military operation and ground realities don't change a jot
The reason is that Trump's desire to possess Greenland is detached from reality, so his possession of Greenland does not have to correspond to reality. As with Venezuela, he does not need to have it in order to claim he runs it.
January 15, 2026 at 12:21 PM
This tracks. Just pass an executive order announcing the annexation of Greenland and that Thule space base is its new capital. No military operation and ground realities don't change a jot
Surprised at the lack of preparedness since Scandinavia - Sweden and Norway at least - are perhaps the most overprepared for invasion places in the world. Whither om krisen eller kriget kommer? www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
‘Are they going to bring their violence here?’: Fear – but little preparation – as threat of invasion looms over Greenland
Ahead of high-stakes talks, people tell of alarm, thoughts of fleeing and lack of information on what to do if US invades
www.theguardian.com
January 14, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Surprised at the lack of preparedness since Scandinavia - Sweden and Norway at least - are perhaps the most overprepared for invasion places in the world. Whither om krisen eller kriget kommer? www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
I've been becoming slowly more convinced we should just forget about the UNSC, let it whither on the vine, & elevate the GA as the de facto preeminent institution of the UN. This from @richardgowan1.bsky.social tho points out there is still sometimes a role for it
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
The UN Security Council: still room for compromise?
This policy paper argues that while the UN system, and in particular the UN Security Council, may not be capable of resolving the most major contemporary c
academic.oup.com
January 14, 2026 at 10:34 AM
I've been becoming slowly more convinced we should just forget about the UNSC, let it whither on the vine, & elevate the GA as the de facto preeminent institution of the UN. This from @richardgowan1.bsky.social tho points out there is still sometimes a role for it
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
Reposted by Fred Carver
For those keeping score, Bellingcat, The New York Times Visual Investigation Team, & Washington Post's Visual Forensic team have all published analysis showing the ICE shooter wasn't in the path of Renee Nicole Good’s vehicle when he shot her, contradicting statements by the President & his cronies
January 8, 2026 at 3:35 PM
For those keeping score, Bellingcat, The New York Times Visual Investigation Team, & Washington Post's Visual Forensic team have all published analysis showing the ICE shooter wasn't in the path of Renee Nicole Good’s vehicle when he shot her, contradicting statements by the President & his cronies
I don't think the US can withdraw from some of these eg DESA or the SRs: they are parts of the secretariat ie the US isn't a member of them. Others eg ECOSOC are core parts of the UN or like PBC the US has a seat thru Security Council - so the US can stop showing up but they will still have a seat
This is insane. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United
www.whitehouse.gov
January 8, 2026 at 7:40 AM
I don't think the US can withdraw from some of these eg DESA or the SRs: they are parts of the secretariat ie the US isn't a member of them. Others eg ECOSOC are core parts of the UN or like PBC the US has a seat thru Security Council - so the US can stop showing up but they will still have a seat
I think there's also an "I wouldn't have started from here" argument that had UK foreign policy developed a reputation for being coherent and principled over the preceding decades the offence caused by the UK taking a stand now would be reduced...
there are two arguments hanging in the balance here, both of which have some merit: (1) it doesn't do the UK government any good to publicly antagonize the US government, so why do it? (2) it doesn't do the UK government any good to curry favor with the US government, so why not stand on principle?
I am not an expert is international diplomacy, by any stretch, but the current argument sweeping Bsky, that "the UK gov't must demonstrate it recognises just how aggressive, dangerous, and unpredictable Trump's US has become, by poking Trump publicly in the eye" is not entirely rational.
January 5, 2026 at 10:14 PM
I think there's also an "I wouldn't have started from here" argument that had UK foreign policy developed a reputation for being coherent and principled over the preceding decades the offence caused by the UK taking a stand now would be reduced...
Granted this is Swinford's analysis rather than a direct quote but even so the highlighted sentence is a hell of a thing to brief as it presumably was. Of course it's true, we all know it. But saying it out loud is peak pundit brain: looking smart above actual diplomatic effects
January 5, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Granted this is Swinford's analysis rather than a direct quote but even so the highlighted sentence is a hell of a thing to brief as it presumably was. Of course it's true, we all know it. But saying it out loud is peak pundit brain: looking smart above actual diplomatic effects
So I guess 3 possibilities here:
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
Trump: "There is nobody to take over. You have a vice president who has been appointed by Maduro. She's I guess the president. She was sworn in just a little while ago. She had a long conversation with Marco and she said, 'We'll do whatever you need.' She really doesn't have a choice."
January 3, 2026 at 6:16 PM
So I guess 3 possibilities here:
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
1 this is nonsense
2 Rodriguez said it but didn't mean it
3 Rodriguez said it and meant it
But even if it's 3 there's still a lot of people in Venezuela with guns and no real reason to accept President Hegseth's oil extraction mandate
I do find it baffling that the creators of LLMs evade legal responsibility for their creations' speech
Genuinely wild that no actual people will go to jail for this
January 3, 2026 at 1:13 PM
I do find it baffling that the creators of LLMs evade legal responsibility for their creations' speech
Agreed. Additionally I'm continually amazed how well this decade old interview with Julia Buxton holds up newleftreview.org/issues/ii99/...
January 3, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Agreed. Additionally I'm continually amazed how well this decade old interview with Julia Buxton holds up newleftreview.org/issues/ii99/...
This feels like one of two plausible scenarios. Is there another that goes like this?
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
Plausible worst case scenario with Venezuela in four steps:
1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.
1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.
January 3, 2026 at 11:06 AM
This feels like one of two plausible scenarios. Is there another that goes like this?
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
1. Rally round the flag effect kills support for opposition and solidifies the Chavismo regime
2. Pride and a need to restore detterance mean Vzla has to insist a state of war exist between it & USA for at least
This is a bit of a mess and I think that's all downwind of not mentioning Iraq and the war on terror. The interregnum started in about 2003 and what were now seeing is the morbid symptoms subsiding as the new order is finally born www.theguardian.com/law/ng-inter...
Into the void: how Trump killed international law
The rules-based global order, its institutions and value system face a crisis of legitimacy and credibility as the US turns away
www.theguardian.com
December 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
This is a bit of a mess and I think that's all downwind of not mentioning Iraq and the war on terror. The interregnum started in about 2003 and what were now seeing is the morbid symptoms subsiding as the new order is finally born www.theguardian.com/law/ng-inter...
Reposted by Fred Carver
The race for the next #UN Secretary-General has begun. This week, I make five predictions based on the process agreed and the interests of key Member States on:
1️⃣ Profile of candidates
2️⃣ Gender
3️⃣ Regional representation
4️⃣ What the P5 will demand
5️⃣ Timeline
casquebleu.substack.com/p/prediction...
1️⃣ Profile of candidates
2️⃣ Gender
3️⃣ Regional representation
4️⃣ What the P5 will demand
5️⃣ Timeline
casquebleu.substack.com/p/prediction...
Predictions for the Secretary-General selection process
The perils of wishful thinking
casquebleu.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 4:59 PM
The race for the next #UN Secretary-General has begun. This week, I make five predictions based on the process agreed and the interests of key Member States on:
1️⃣ Profile of candidates
2️⃣ Gender
3️⃣ Regional representation
4️⃣ What the P5 will demand
5️⃣ Timeline
casquebleu.substack.com/p/prediction...
1️⃣ Profile of candidates
2️⃣ Gender
3️⃣ Regional representation
4️⃣ What the P5 will demand
5️⃣ Timeline
casquebleu.substack.com/p/prediction...
This was great www.equator.org/articles/he-...
‘He’s an African Leader’ • EQUATOR
Why my Ethiopian relatives voted for Trump
www.equator.org
December 17, 2025 at 3:44 PM
This was great www.equator.org/articles/he-...
Reposted by Fred Carver
PassBlue’s 2025 UN Person of the Year passblue.com/2025/12/14/p...
PassBlue’s 2025 UN Person of the Year
Vote for UN Person of the Year -- IN TWO CATEGORIES -- We are seeking names of people who have demonstrated strong leadership in 2025 to uphold the UN Charter, advocate for universal human rights, act to ensure international humanitarian law and promote peace and nonviolence throughout the world.
passblue.com
December 14, 2025 at 4:58 PM
PassBlue’s 2025 UN Person of the Year passblue.com/2025/12/14/p...
Reposted by Fred Carver
So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified
At least 60,000 murdered in Sudanese city, which resembles ‘a slaughterhouse’
Satellite evidence shows extent of paramilitary massacre in El Fasher
www.irishtimes.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified
Reposted by Fred Carver
🧵Teaching Students NOT to use AI
So...I've tried to explain to my students why they aren't allowed to use genAI in MY class (even though the university seems to be encouraging them to)
I've written this document to try to explain WHY it's a bad idea rather than just forbidden fruit.
#AI
#genAI
So...I've tried to explain to my students why they aren't allowed to use genAI in MY class (even though the university seems to be encouraging them to)
I've written this document to try to explain WHY it's a bad idea rather than just forbidden fruit.
#AI
#genAI
December 12, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Wonder if Ukraine could take advantage of the US's new fondness for piracy by issuing letters of the marque to American PMCs to take Russian shadow fleet tankers. You'd get Musk donning an eyepatch and a bad Cornish accent in minutes
December 11, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Wonder if Ukraine could take advantage of the US's new fondness for piracy by issuing letters of the marque to American PMCs to take Russian shadow fleet tankers. You'd get Musk donning an eyepatch and a bad Cornish accent in minutes
While i rerget the broad shift to sans and think all writing longer than a paragraph should have serifs Calibri is honestly fine. Its just Arial without Arial's wierd size and kerning issues. And TNR is ugly
Using Calibri to write a document you intend to be seen by more than one other person - arguably even that - is an affront to God
December 10, 2025 at 8:35 AM
While i rerget the broad shift to sans and think all writing longer than a paragraph should have serifs Calibri is honestly fine. Its just Arial without Arial's wierd size and kerning issues. And TNR is ugly
Me, justice, strong institutions
December 7, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Me, justice, strong institutions
Great job if you love fish www.linkedin.com/posts/gfcm_j...
#jobopportunity #communication #outreach #mediterranean #blacksea #bluetransformation | General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM)
📢 #JobOpportunity: technical specialists in communication & documentation❗
The General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) is looking for multiple profiles to support #communication an...
www.linkedin.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Great job if you love fish www.linkedin.com/posts/gfcm_j...
Dear lord this is even worse than I feared. I'm also starting to think there needs to be some sort of test people must pass before they're allowed to rip on Gramsci's twilight monsters bit
Stop trying to make Clash of Civilizations happen. It's not going to happen!
December 1, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Dear lord this is even worse than I feared. I'm also starting to think there needs to be some sort of test people must pass before they're allowed to rip on Gramsci's twilight monsters bit
Really interesting. But I think mostly a broader symptom of the fact UK Russia sanctions are symbolic and theatrical because a proper sanctions strategy with a theory of change would require proper regulation of dirty money going thru the City www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
West is ‘missing obscure sanctions that could set back Russia’s war machine’
US group Dekleptocracy identifies additives for military vehicles’ lubricants and tyres as potential vulnerabilities
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Really interesting. But I think mostly a broader symptom of the fact UK Russia sanctions are symbolic and theatrical because a proper sanctions strategy with a theory of change would require proper regulation of dirty money going thru the City www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...