Arndt Leininger
@aleininger.bsky.social
Assistant professor for political science research methods @TUChemnitz | #PhD @thehertieschool | founding member @CorrelAid | he/him/🍠
Talk about critical infrastructure and overreliance on a single service provider. I can't access a host of websites, nor download academic articles, etc., because #Cloudflare has technical issues.
November 18, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Talk about critical infrastructure and overreliance on a single service provider. I can't access a host of websites, nor download academic articles, etc., because #Cloudflare has technical issues.
Die, die am häufigsten im Stadtbild unterwegs sind, stimmen am wenigsten zu. 🤷
www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
October 25, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Die, die am häufigsten im Stadtbild unterwegs sind, stimmen am wenigsten zu. 🤷
www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
In line with our theory, we find that incumbents and high-profile party members are punished more by voters. They lose more votes compared to lower-ranking party members. 6/
May 8, 2025 at 10:43 AM
In line with our theory, we find that incumbents and high-profile party members are punished more by voters. They lose more votes compared to lower-ranking party members. 6/
We estimate the effect of the scandal, a loss of 4 percentage points to the party, through a difference-in-differences design—by differentiating trends in pre-scandal postal and post-scandal urn voting. 3/
May 8, 2025 at 10:43 AM
We estimate the effect of the scandal, a loss of 4 percentage points to the party, through a difference-in-differences design—by differentiating trends in pre-scandal postal and post-scandal urn voting. 3/
New 📰: In "Can Individual MPs Damage Their Party’s Brand? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Public
Procurement Corruption Scandal" out in @thejop.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social and I show that the "mask affair" cost the CDU 4%-points in elections. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 1/
Procurement Corruption Scandal" out in @thejop.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social and I show that the "mask affair" cost the CDU 4%-points in elections. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 1/
May 8, 2025 at 10:43 AM
New 📰: In "Can Individual MPs Damage Their Party’s Brand? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from a Public
Procurement Corruption Scandal" out in @thejop.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social and I show that the "mask affair" cost the CDU 4%-points in elections. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 1/
Procurement Corruption Scandal" out in @thejop.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social and I show that the "mask affair" cost the CDU 4%-points in elections. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 1/
Of course, some constituency results ended up different than expected but a citizen forecast also gives you pretty accurate expectations of which races will be close:
May 2, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Of course, some constituency results ended up different than expected but a citizen forecast also gives you pretty accurate expectations of which races will be close:
We had hoped to get this out before the 2025 election but, well, the government broke before that. Here are a few insights from the article: 1. Forecast worked relatively well overall and, as expected, groups forecasts much accurately than individual respondents.
May 2, 2025 at 10:37 AM
We had hoped to get this out before the 2025 election but, well, the government broke before that. Here are a few insights from the article: 1. Forecast worked relatively well overall and, as expected, groups forecasts much accurately than individual respondents.
New #openaccess "Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system: The 2021 German federal election as a test case" (with Andreas Murr, @lstoetze.bsky.social and @markkayser.bsky.social) in International Journal of Forecasting. doi.org/10.1016/j.ij... 1/
May 2, 2025 at 10:37 AM
New #openaccess "Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system: The 2021 German federal election as a test case" (with Andreas Murr, @lstoetze.bsky.social and @markkayser.bsky.social) in International Journal of Forecasting. doi.org/10.1016/j.ij... 1/
Another great publication by @ttichelbaecker.bsky.social and his first with TU Chemnitz affiliation: "Does political violence undermine descriptive representation? The case of women in politics" out in EJPR. #openaccess Thanks for helping us put Chemnitz on the map, Thomas! doi.org/10.1111/1475...
April 29, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Another great publication by @ttichelbaecker.bsky.social and his first with TU Chemnitz affiliation: "Does political violence undermine descriptive representation? The case of women in politics" out in EJPR. #openaccess Thanks for helping us put Chemnitz on the map, Thomas! doi.org/10.1111/1475...
Very happy and proud to see @felixgruenewald.bsky.social 's paper "‘Seen one, seen ‘em all’: political outgroup homogeneity and negative affect" in print @wepsocial.bsky.social. One of the first outputs of our @dfg.de funded project on polarization. Check it out, it's #openaccess
April 29, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Very happy and proud to see @felixgruenewald.bsky.social 's paper "‘Seen one, seen ‘em all’: political outgroup homogeneity and negative affect" in print @wepsocial.bsky.social. One of the first outputs of our @dfg.de funded project on polarization. Check it out, it's #openaccess
After 2 terms of office, I am stepping down as spokesperson for the Methods Section of the @dvpw.bsky.social. Many thanks to my co-speakers @gessler.bsky.social and @denis-cohen.bsky.social for the great collaboration and the lovely gift.
March 28, 2025 at 3:22 PM
After 2 terms of office, I am stepping down as spokesperson for the Methods Section of the @dvpw.bsky.social. Many thanks to my co-speakers @gessler.bsky.social and @denis-cohen.bsky.social for the great collaboration and the lovely gift.
Der Aufstieg der Linken fasziniert mich. Ich hatte da so eine Vermutung und tatsächlich ist es so: Die Linke gewinnt dort wo die Grünen verlieren. Der Zusammenhang ist bemerkenswert, der Zusammenhang zu Gewinnen/Verlusten der SPD andersrum und zu denen der CDU nicht vorhanden.
February 24, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Der Aufstieg der Linken fasziniert mich. Ich hatte da so eine Vermutung und tatsächlich ist es so: Die Linke gewinnt dort wo die Grünen verlieren. Der Zusammenhang ist bemerkenswert, der Zusammenhang zu Gewinnen/Verlusten der SPD andersrum und zu denen der CDU nicht vorhanden.
What we see is not first-time voters being more left-wing than in 2021. 49% of youths voting for SPD/Greens/Linke in 2025 vs 46% in 2021. What we see is that most progressive youths are choosing Linke instead of SPD and Greens now.
February 24, 2025 at 12:23 PM
What we see is not first-time voters being more left-wing than in 2021. 49% of youths voting for SPD/Greens/Linke in 2025 vs 46% in 2021. What we see is that most progressive youths are choosing Linke instead of SPD and Greens now.
Viele teilen Karten, die altbekanntes zeigen: die AfD ist die Partei des Ostens. Viel bemerkenswerter erscheint mir: Die Linke ist auf dem Weg, zu einer gesamtdeutschen Partei zu werden. (Links 2021, rechts 2025)
February 24, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Viele teilen Karten, die altbekanntes zeigen: die AfD ist die Partei des Ostens. Viel bemerkenswerter erscheint mir: Die Linke ist auf dem Weg, zu einer gesamtdeutschen Partei zu werden. (Links 2021, rechts 2025)
Erstmal ☕ nach der Wahlnacht. Zum Glück habe ich noch alle Tassen im Schrank.
February 24, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Erstmal ☕ nach der Wahlnacht. Zum Glück habe ich noch alle Tassen im Schrank.
Auch der @tagesspiegel.de berichtet über die Studie von @krausewe.bsky.social und @christinagahn.bsky.social und vergisst, die beiden zu erwähnen. Liest sich als hätte @felixkiefer.bsky.social nicht die Studie, sondern nur den SZ-Artikel gelesen. Studie ist nicht veröffentlicht, ein Working paper.
February 8, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Auch der @tagesspiegel.de berichtet über die Studie von @krausewe.bsky.social und @christinagahn.bsky.social und vergisst, die beiden zu erwähnen. Liest sich als hätte @felixkiefer.bsky.social nicht die Studie, sondern nur den SZ-Artikel gelesen. Studie ist nicht veröffentlicht, ein Working paper.
Tausende Demonstrierende vor dem "Haus des Politikwechsels". Was damit gemeint ist, weiß man nun.
January 30, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Tausende Demonstrierende vor dem "Haus des Politikwechsels". Was damit gemeint ist, weiß man nun.
🚨 Job alert: I have an opening for a researcher position (65% FTE, 2 years) in a project on "Elite Affective Polarization in Israel and Germany" funded by the German Israeli Foundation and conducted jointly w/ @liorsheffer.bsky.social. 🗓️ 17/01/2021 www.tu-chemnitz.de/verwaltung/p...
December 20, 2024 at 5:31 PM
🚨 Job alert: I have an opening for a researcher position (65% FTE, 2 years) in a project on "Elite Affective Polarization in Israel and Germany" funded by the German Israeli Foundation and conducted jointly w/ @liorsheffer.bsky.social. 🗓️ 17/01/2021 www.tu-chemnitz.de/verwaltung/p...