𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. buff.ly/XdG1MDJ
Effective Fed funds rate: 3.89%
US Treas Bond yields --
**10-Yr: 4.11%**
20-Yr: 4.72%
30-Yr: 4.76%

4/end

> Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. buff.ly/osJ2Rjn
Current: 3.02% (Sept)
10yr Avg: 2.26%
Next 5yrs: 2.33%
5 yrs Beyond That: 2.19%

3/4

> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. buff.ly/CJ3392T
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 24.6% (2.5%/yr)

2/4

Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the FY26 waterfall. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $160mil ⬇️ breakeven.

2/3ne

... taking more from 80% of #AKfams than the first approach.

As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 2x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 10x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.

6/end

* Abandoning a rules-based PFD and using the "leftover" PFD approach (which reduces the PFD over the period to 13.7% of the POMV draw).

As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...

5/6

* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 50/50, w/ the remaining deficit filled through a flat tax,

* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,

4/6

... (32% of the UGF budget, ~4.8% of Alaska AGI, ~3.0% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).

𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit.

* Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead,

3/6

𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #AKGov's enacted budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.03 billion ...

2/6

Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $1 (+$83mil UGF), FY26-35 avg $67 ($2.47B avg UGF, ⬇️ $10mil v SPRING25 F'cast rev).

2/end