Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.com
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 [email protected] 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 [email protected] 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Rise in gold prices over past four years have helped Russia replenish its international reserves
• Value of Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has grown by $216bn since Feb 2022
• Rise in gold holdings also highlights Moscow's decision to prioritise safe reserve assets
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Value of Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has grown by $216bn since Feb 2022
• Rise in gold holdings also highlights Moscow's decision to prioritise safe reserve assets
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 3, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Rise in gold prices over past four years have helped Russia replenish its international reserves
• Value of Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has grown by $216bn since Feb 2022
• Rise in gold holdings also highlights Moscow's decision to prioritise safe reserve assets
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Value of Bank of Russia’s gold holdings has grown by $216bn since Feb 2022
• Rise in gold holdings also highlights Moscow's decision to prioritise safe reserve assets
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Global supply of stablecoins remains small, but it is growing fast
• US banks are pushing back against stablecoins, arguing these pose risks to financial stability
• Crux of debate has to do with ability of issuers of stablecoins to pay interest on customers' deposits
www.ft.com/content/0fe2...
• US banks are pushing back against stablecoins, arguing these pose risks to financial stability
• Crux of debate has to do with ability of issuers of stablecoins to pay interest on customers' deposits
www.ft.com/content/0fe2...
February 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Global supply of stablecoins remains small, but it is growing fast
• US banks are pushing back against stablecoins, arguing these pose risks to financial stability
• Crux of debate has to do with ability of issuers of stablecoins to pay interest on customers' deposits
www.ft.com/content/0fe2...
• US banks are pushing back against stablecoins, arguing these pose risks to financial stability
• Crux of debate has to do with ability of issuers of stablecoins to pay interest on customers' deposits
www.ft.com/content/0fe2...
Volume of Russian and Iranian oil loitering at sea is hitting records
• Indian and Chinese buyers/ports are increasingly fearful of falling foul of sanctions
• Tankers become 70% less productive (in tonne-miles) in six months after being placed under US sanctions
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Indian and Chinese buyers/ports are increasingly fearful of falling foul of sanctions
• Tankers become 70% less productive (in tonne-miles) in six months after being placed under US sanctions
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 3, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Volume of Russian and Iranian oil loitering at sea is hitting records
• Indian and Chinese buyers/ports are increasingly fearful of falling foul of sanctions
• Tankers become 70% less productive (in tonne-miles) in six months after being placed under US sanctions
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Indian and Chinese buyers/ports are increasingly fearful of falling foul of sanctions
• Tankers become 70% less productive (in tonne-miles) in six months after being placed under US sanctions
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Latin Americans mostly approve of the US capture of Maduro
• Predominant view in Latin America is that there should be more US involvement in Venezuela
• Data show broad shift towards right across Latin America amid high crime/violence levels
www.ft.com/content/18bd...
• Predominant view in Latin America is that there should be more US involvement in Venezuela
• Data show broad shift towards right across Latin America amid high crime/violence levels
www.ft.com/content/18bd...
February 2, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Latin Americans mostly approve of the US capture of Maduro
• Predominant view in Latin America is that there should be more US involvement in Venezuela
• Data show broad shift towards right across Latin America amid high crime/violence levels
www.ft.com/content/18bd...
• Predominant view in Latin America is that there should be more US involvement in Venezuela
• Data show broad shift towards right across Latin America amid high crime/violence levels
www.ft.com/content/18bd...
Cash-strapped Kremlin is increasingly resorting to old nationalisation trick
• Russia confiscated record US$41bn worth of property in 2025, four times the 2024 amount
• High borrowing costs curb Moscow's ability to sell seized assets while also depressing prices
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Russia confiscated record US$41bn worth of property in 2025, four times the 2024 amount
• High borrowing costs curb Moscow's ability to sell seized assets while also depressing prices
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 2, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Cash-strapped Kremlin is increasingly resorting to old nationalisation trick
• Russia confiscated record US$41bn worth of property in 2025, four times the 2024 amount
• High borrowing costs curb Moscow's ability to sell seized assets while also depressing prices
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Russia confiscated record US$41bn worth of property in 2025, four times the 2024 amount
• High borrowing costs curb Moscow's ability to sell seized assets while also depressing prices
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Cost of ferrying Russian crude to India or China is surging, weighing on Kremlin's revenues
• Discount on Urals has reached US$27 against Brent, the widest level since 2023
• Energy revenues now make up only 24% of Russian revenues, down from 50% before Ukraine war
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Discount on Urals has reached US$27 against Brent, the widest level since 2023
• Energy revenues now make up only 24% of Russian revenues, down from 50% before Ukraine war
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 2, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Cost of ferrying Russian crude to India or China is surging, weighing on Kremlin's revenues
• Discount on Urals has reached US$27 against Brent, the widest level since 2023
• Energy revenues now make up only 24% of Russian revenues, down from 50% before Ukraine war
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Discount on Urals has reached US$27 against Brent, the widest level since 2023
• Energy revenues now make up only 24% of Russian revenues, down from 50% before Ukraine war
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Share of Russian oil shipments to undisclosed buyers is rising sharply
• Many tankers are idling in India or Chinese waters in search of buyer among refineries
• Data highlight growing impact of tighter US sanctions on Russian crude exports - and thus Russian oil income
www.ft.com/content/ebf1...
• Many tankers are idling in India or Chinese waters in search of buyer among refineries
• Data highlight growing impact of tighter US sanctions on Russian crude exports - and thus Russian oil income
www.ft.com/content/ebf1...
January 30, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Share of Russian oil shipments to undisclosed buyers is rising sharply
• Many tankers are idling in India or Chinese waters in search of buyer among refineries
• Data highlight growing impact of tighter US sanctions on Russian crude exports - and thus Russian oil income
www.ft.com/content/ebf1...
• Many tankers are idling in India or Chinese waters in search of buyer among refineries
• Data highlight growing impact of tighter US sanctions on Russian crude exports - and thus Russian oil income
www.ft.com/content/ebf1...
Valuations of AI/AI-related firms are soaring across the world
• OpenAI's (ChatGPT) valuation has risen 19-fold since 2023, while that of Anthropic (Claude) has risen 37-fold
• Interlinkages across investments raises risk of losses if AI falls short of expectations
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
• OpenAI's (ChatGPT) valuation has risen 19-fold since 2023, while that of Anthropic (Claude) has risen 37-fold
• Interlinkages across investments raises risk of losses if AI falls short of expectations
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
January 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Valuations of AI/AI-related firms are soaring across the world
• OpenAI's (ChatGPT) valuation has risen 19-fold since 2023, while that of Anthropic (Claude) has risen 37-fold
• Interlinkages across investments raises risk of losses if AI falls short of expectations
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
• OpenAI's (ChatGPT) valuation has risen 19-fold since 2023, while that of Anthropic (Claude) has risen 37-fold
• Interlinkages across investments raises risk of losses if AI falls short of expectations
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
January 30, 2026 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
It could be easier said than done for Canada to diversify trade ties away from US
• Ottawa is doubling down on inking trade deals to reduce reliance on US export market
• Yet US absorbs 65-70% of Canada's exports, meaning de-risking efforts will take time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Ottawa is doubling down on inking trade deals to reduce reliance on US export market
• Yet US absorbs 65-70% of Canada's exports, meaning de-risking efforts will take time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 29, 2026 at 4:01 PM
It could be easier said than done for Canada to diversify trade ties away from US
• Ottawa is doubling down on inking trade deals to reduce reliance on US export market
• Yet US absorbs 65-70% of Canada's exports, meaning de-risking efforts will take time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Ottawa is doubling down on inking trade deals to reduce reliance on US export market
• Yet US absorbs 65-70% of Canada's exports, meaning de-risking efforts will take time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Population ageing places pressure on public finances, squeezing out funding for long-term endeavours
• Spending on seniors' health and pensions is rising across developed economies
• In turn, low productivity growth and decaying infrastructure fuel popular dissatisfaction
www.ft.com/content/b4d2...
• Spending on seniors' health and pensions is rising across developed economies
• In turn, low productivity growth and decaying infrastructure fuel popular dissatisfaction
www.ft.com/content/b4d2...
January 29, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Population ageing places pressure on public finances, squeezing out funding for long-term endeavours
• Spending on seniors' health and pensions is rising across developed economies
• In turn, low productivity growth and decaying infrastructure fuel popular dissatisfaction
www.ft.com/content/b4d2...
• Spending on seniors' health and pensions is rising across developed economies
• In turn, low productivity growth and decaying infrastructure fuel popular dissatisfaction
www.ft.com/content/b4d2...
Most Americans are not convinced that US should buy Greenland
• Only 29% of Americans approve of buying Greenland, with share dropping to 9% for military annexion
• This far weaker backing than Mr Trump enjoyed ahead of interventions in Iran and Venezuela
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Only 29% of Americans approve of buying Greenland, with share dropping to 9% for military annexion
• This far weaker backing than Mr Trump enjoyed ahead of interventions in Iran and Venezuela
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
January 29, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Most Americans are not convinced that US should buy Greenland
• Only 29% of Americans approve of buying Greenland, with share dropping to 9% for military annexion
• This far weaker backing than Mr Trump enjoyed ahead of interventions in Iran and Venezuela
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Only 29% of Americans approve of buying Greenland, with share dropping to 9% for military annexion
• This far weaker backing than Mr Trump enjoyed ahead of interventions in Iran and Venezuela
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
European imports of Russian uranium grew after full-blown invasion of Ukraine
• Russia supplies around one quarter of EU imports of nuclear fuel (at attractively low prices)
• US also continues to import Russian uranium ahead of full ban planned for 2028
www.ft.com/content/951d...
• Russia supplies around one quarter of EU imports of nuclear fuel (at attractively low prices)
• US also continues to import Russian uranium ahead of full ban planned for 2028
www.ft.com/content/951d...
January 28, 2026 at 4:03 PM
European imports of Russian uranium grew after full-blown invasion of Ukraine
• Russia supplies around one quarter of EU imports of nuclear fuel (at attractively low prices)
• US also continues to import Russian uranium ahead of full ban planned for 2028
www.ft.com/content/951d...
• Russia supplies around one quarter of EU imports of nuclear fuel (at attractively low prices)
• US also continues to import Russian uranium ahead of full ban planned for 2028
www.ft.com/content/951d...
India will proceed with massive tariff cuts as part of free-trade agreement with EU
• EU Commission (boldly) reckons EU exports to India could double over next six years
• India is trying to shake protectionist reputation and offset US tariffs of up to 50%
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• EU Commission (boldly) reckons EU exports to India could double over next six years
• India is trying to shake protectionist reputation and offset US tariffs of up to 50%
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 28, 2026 at 12:01 PM
India will proceed with massive tariff cuts as part of free-trade agreement with EU
• EU Commission (boldly) reckons EU exports to India could double over next six years
• India is trying to shake protectionist reputation and offset US tariffs of up to 50%
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• EU Commission (boldly) reckons EU exports to India could double over next six years
• India is trying to shake protectionist reputation and offset US tariffs of up to 50%
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump's trade wars are pushing China and India closer - at least in the economic field
• In December India's exports to China were nearly 70% higher than one year earlier
• New Delhi is mulling allowing Chinese companies to invest in India again
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• In December India's exports to China were nearly 70% higher than one year earlier
• New Delhi is mulling allowing Chinese companies to invest in India again
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 28, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Trump's trade wars are pushing China and India closer - at least in the economic field
• In December India's exports to China were nearly 70% higher than one year earlier
• New Delhi is mulling allowing Chinese companies to invest in India again
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• In December India's exports to China were nearly 70% higher than one year earlier
• New Delhi is mulling allowing Chinese companies to invest in India again
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The EU is India's largest trading partner, accounting for 12% of country's trade flows
• New free-trade agreement could help to deepen EU-India trade ties, notably for machinery and chemicals
• Deal highlights how global response to US tariffs is increasingly taking shape
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
• New free-trade agreement could help to deepen EU-India trade ties, notably for machinery and chemicals
• Deal highlights how global response to US tariffs is increasingly taking shape
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
January 27, 2026 at 4:01 PM
The EU is India's largest trading partner, accounting for 12% of country's trade flows
• New free-trade agreement could help to deepen EU-India trade ties, notably for machinery and chemicals
• Deal highlights how global response to US tariffs is increasingly taking shape
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
• New free-trade agreement could help to deepen EU-India trade ties, notably for machinery and chemicals
• Deal highlights how global response to US tariffs is increasingly taking shape
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
EU-India free-trade agreement will reduce or slash tariffs on 96.6% of EU exports to India
• Indian tariffs of up to 44% on machinery, 22% on chemicals and 11% on pharmaceuticals will be lifted
• 30+% tariffs on many EU food products will also be reduced or removed
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
• Indian tariffs of up to 44% on machinery, 22% on chemicals and 11% on pharmaceuticals will be lifted
• 30+% tariffs on many EU food products will also be reduced or removed
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
January 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM
EU-India free-trade agreement will reduce or slash tariffs on 96.6% of EU exports to India
• Indian tariffs of up to 44% on machinery, 22% on chemicals and 11% on pharmaceuticals will be lifted
• 30+% tariffs on many EU food products will also be reduced or removed
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
• Indian tariffs of up to 44% on machinery, 22% on chemicals and 11% on pharmaceuticals will be lifted
• 30+% tariffs on many EU food products will also be reduced or removed
www.ft.com/content/b03b...
African trade may have been vastly underestimated
• Officially, just 15% of continent’s trade is internal, notably for lack of transport infrastructure
• Yet official estimates could omit large volume of continent’s internal trade, particularly in food
www.economist.com/middle-east-...
• Officially, just 15% of continent’s trade is internal, notably for lack of transport infrastructure
• Yet official estimates could omit large volume of continent’s internal trade, particularly in food
www.economist.com/middle-east-...
January 27, 2026 at 8:01 AM
African trade may have been vastly underestimated
• Officially, just 15% of continent’s trade is internal, notably for lack of transport infrastructure
• Yet official estimates could omit large volume of continent’s internal trade, particularly in food
www.economist.com/middle-east-...
• Officially, just 15% of continent’s trade is internal, notably for lack of transport infrastructure
• Yet official estimates could omit large volume of continent’s internal trade, particularly in food
www.economist.com/middle-east-...
Trump Family’s US$7.2bn wealth is increasingly linked to cryptocurrencies
• Digital assets added US$1.4bn to the Trump family's wealth since Trump's return to the White House
• Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp are down 66% over past 12 months
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• Digital assets added US$1.4bn to the Trump family's wealth since Trump's return to the White House
• Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp are down 66% over past 12 months
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 26, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Trump Family’s US$7.2bn wealth is increasingly linked to cryptocurrencies
• Digital assets added US$1.4bn to the Trump family's wealth since Trump's return to the White House
• Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp are down 66% over past 12 months
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• Digital assets added US$1.4bn to the Trump family's wealth since Trump's return to the White House
• Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp are down 66% over past 12 months
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Odds of a mining bonanza in Greenland are abysmally low
• Getting mine running in Arctic can cost 2-3 times as much as equivalent project at lower latitudes
• Island’s two big rare-earth projects have been plagued by difficulties and have yet to start operations
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
• Getting mine running in Arctic can cost 2-3 times as much as equivalent project at lower latitudes
• Island’s two big rare-earth projects have been plagued by difficulties and have yet to start operations
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
January 26, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Odds of a mining bonanza in Greenland are abysmally low
• Getting mine running in Arctic can cost 2-3 times as much as equivalent project at lower latitudes
• Island’s two big rare-earth projects have been plagued by difficulties and have yet to start operations
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
• Getting mine running in Arctic can cost 2-3 times as much as equivalent project at lower latitudes
• Island’s two big rare-earth projects have been plagued by difficulties and have yet to start operations
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
AI boom is driving rise in private sector's share of top 100 listed Chinese companies
• Private sector owns 40% of aggregate market capitalisation of China's top 100 listed firms
• Even so, private sector's share remains far below its mid-2021 peak of 55.4%
www.piie.com/research/pii...
• Private sector owns 40% of aggregate market capitalisation of China's top 100 listed firms
• Even so, private sector's share remains far below its mid-2021 peak of 55.4%
www.piie.com/research/pii...
January 23, 2026 at 4:01 PM
AI boom is driving rise in private sector's share of top 100 listed Chinese companies
• Private sector owns 40% of aggregate market capitalisation of China's top 100 listed firms
• Even so, private sector's share remains far below its mid-2021 peak of 55.4%
www.piie.com/research/pii...
• Private sector owns 40% of aggregate market capitalisation of China's top 100 listed firms
• Even so, private sector's share remains far below its mid-2021 peak of 55.4%
www.piie.com/research/pii...
Fresh @ecfr.eu global data show many people do not share Trump's view that he should get Nobel peace prize
• Global appraisal for Trump's impact on peace in the world is falling nearly everywhere, except in Brazil and UK
• India remains outlier, with consistently positive views of Trump's actions
• Global appraisal for Trump's impact on peace in the world is falling nearly everywhere, except in Brazil and UK
• India remains outlier, with consistently positive views of Trump's actions
January 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Fresh @ecfr.eu global data show many people do not share Trump's view that he should get Nobel peace prize
• Global appraisal for Trump's impact on peace in the world is falling nearly everywhere, except in Brazil and UK
• India remains outlier, with consistently positive views of Trump's actions
• Global appraisal for Trump's impact on peace in the world is falling nearly everywhere, except in Brazil and UK
• India remains outlier, with consistently positive views of Trump's actions
Many western multinationals are losing enthusiasm for China
• European and US firms cut employment in China by almost 10% between 2019 and 2023
• Several big US firms like Starbucks, IBM and Airbnb have pulled out of China, completely or in part
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
• European and US firms cut employment in China by almost 10% between 2019 and 2023
• Several big US firms like Starbucks, IBM and Airbnb have pulled out of China, completely or in part
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
January 23, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Many western multinationals are losing enthusiasm for China
• European and US firms cut employment in China by almost 10% between 2019 and 2023
• Several big US firms like Starbucks, IBM and Airbnb have pulled out of China, completely or in part
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
• European and US firms cut employment in China by almost 10% between 2019 and 2023
• Several big US firms like Starbucks, IBM and Airbnb have pulled out of China, completely or in part
www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Russia's oil income has dropped to lowest level since full-blown invasion of Ukraine
• On four-week average basis, gross value of Moscow’s crude exports fell to US$900m/week on Jan. 18th
• This represents ~60%-drop in Russian oil earnings compared to mid-2022 peak
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• On four-week average basis, gross value of Moscow’s crude exports fell to US$900m/week on Jan. 18th
• This represents ~60%-drop in Russian oil earnings compared to mid-2022 peak
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 22, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Russia's oil income has dropped to lowest level since full-blown invasion of Ukraine
• On four-week average basis, gross value of Moscow’s crude exports fell to US$900m/week on Jan. 18th
• This represents ~60%-drop in Russian oil earnings compared to mid-2022 peak
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• On four-week average basis, gross value of Moscow’s crude exports fell to US$900m/week on Jan. 18th
• This represents ~60%-drop in Russian oil earnings compared to mid-2022 peak
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
New @ecfr.eu global data show vast majority of people around the world do not see US as an ally
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
January 22, 2026 at 12:01 PM
New @ecfr.eu global data show vast majority of people around the world do not see US as an ally
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)