Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.com
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 [email protected] 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 [email protected] 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Pinned
Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.com
· Sep 18
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
Which data points are the most useful to understand US-EU relations in the trade, investment and financial fields—and what do these data tell us about the impact of Trumponomics 2.0 on Europe? Here's a selection of 12 charts from my new @ecfr.eu policy brief 👇 [🧵 Thread]
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Comme promis, un texte où je persiste et signe : le film "Le mage du Kremlin" est dangereux, car il se met au service du pouvoir russe en diffusant une vision du pays exactement conforme à ce que le Kremlin veut nous faire penser.
colinlebedev.fr/2026/01/22/h...
colinlebedev.fr/2026/01/22/h...
(Hom)mage du Kremlin.
« ‘Le Mage du Kremlin’ (le film) est à peu près le meilleur cadeau que nous puissions faire au Kremlin (le vrai). » J’ai posté ce commentaire hier sur les réseaux sociaux, en sortant de l…
colinlebedev.fr
January 22, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Comme promis, un texte où je persiste et signe : le film "Le mage du Kremlin" est dangereux, car il se met au service du pouvoir russe en diffusant une vision du pays exactement conforme à ce que le Kremlin veut nous faire penser.
colinlebedev.fr/2026/01/22/h...
colinlebedev.fr/2026/01/22/h...
New @ecfr.eu global data show vast majority of people around the world do not see US as an ally
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
January 22, 2026 at 12:01 PM
New @ecfr.eu global data show vast majority of people around the world do not see US as an ally
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
• Just 25% of Brits think US is an ally that shares their values, with share dropping to 16% in ten EU countries
• Data show how Trump's actions hurt US's global reputation over long run (except in India)
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
just like to emphasize again here that almost all Greenland mining is *extremely* theoretical, because the conditions are so bad that prices would have to be sky-high or other reserves largely exhausted to make them viable.
"The U.S. could receive a right of first refusal on investments in Greenland’s mineral resources—a veto aimed at preventing Russia and China from tapping the island’s wealth" www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Inside Trump’s Head-Spinning Greenland U-Turn
The president ruled out using force to take control of Greenland and called off promised tariffs on European nations.
www.wsj.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:29 AM
just like to emphasize again here that almost all Greenland mining is *extremely* theoretical, because the conditions are so bad that prices would have to be sky-high or other reserves largely exhausted to make them viable.
Agriculture is only a tiny part of EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement
• EU tariff cuts on Mercosur-made meat will apply only to small share of European imports
• Real economic rationale of deal could lie in industrial and services trade, as well as mineral products
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
• EU tariff cuts on Mercosur-made meat will apply only to small share of European imports
• Real economic rationale of deal could lie in industrial and services trade, as well as mineral products
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
January 22, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Agriculture is only a tiny part of EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement
• EU tariff cuts on Mercosur-made meat will apply only to small share of European imports
• Real economic rationale of deal could lie in industrial and services trade, as well as mineral products
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
• EU tariff cuts on Mercosur-made meat will apply only to small share of European imports
• Real economic rationale of deal could lie in industrial and services trade, as well as mineral products
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
Fresh @ecfr.eu global poll show most people expect China's influence will grow over next decade
• Idea that China will dominate in clean tech no longer prevails in China alone, but also in America and the EU
• Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities of people view China as rival or adversary
• Idea that China will dominate in clean tech no longer prevails in China alone, but also in America and the EU
• Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities of people view China as rival or adversary
January 21, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Fresh @ecfr.eu global poll show most people expect China's influence will grow over next decade
• Idea that China will dominate in clean tech no longer prevails in China alone, but also in America and the EU
• Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities of people view China as rival or adversary
• Idea that China will dominate in clean tech no longer prevails in China alone, but also in America and the EU
• Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities of people view China as rival or adversary
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Dollar slips as Donald Trump’s Greenland threats reawaken ‘sell America’ fears www.ft.com/content/4e54...
Dollar slips as Donald Trump’s Greenland threats reawaken ‘sell America’ fears
Euro and sterling gain against US currency despite potential economic damage from new American tariffs
www.ft.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Dollar slips as Donald Trump’s Greenland threats reawaken ‘sell America’ fears www.ft.com/content/4e54...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
European Parliament narrowly votes to request an ECJ opinion on EU-Mercosur, thereby potentially delaying ratification for 2 years.
And you thought this thing was done...
And you thought this thing was done...
January 21, 2026 at 11:57 AM
European Parliament narrowly votes to request an ECJ opinion on EU-Mercosur, thereby potentially delaying ratification for 2 years.
And you thought this thing was done...
And you thought this thing was done...
Europeans oppose raising pension age, increasing taxes or boosting immigration to finance pensions
• State pension systems are unsustainable, but Europeans oppose potential fixes
• In France, Italy, Spain, Germany, state pensions provide >60% of income for retired people
www.ft.com/content/9c3c...
• State pension systems are unsustainable, but Europeans oppose potential fixes
• In France, Italy, Spain, Germany, state pensions provide >60% of income for retired people
www.ft.com/content/9c3c...
January 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM
Europeans oppose raising pension age, increasing taxes or boosting immigration to finance pensions
• State pension systems are unsustainable, but Europeans oppose potential fixes
• In France, Italy, Spain, Germany, state pensions provide >60% of income for retired people
www.ft.com/content/9c3c...
• State pension systems are unsustainable, but Europeans oppose potential fixes
• In France, Italy, Spain, Germany, state pensions provide >60% of income for retired people
www.ft.com/content/9c3c...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Abe and I were talking last week about the "I wish for policy influence - the monkey's finger uncurls" problem. When our arguments become more topical is when the world is getting worse.
Love to hear context for this from @himself.bsky.social
Canada out here surfacing the “Underground Empire”?
Canada out here surfacing the “Underground Empire”?
In a speech to the World Economic Forum, Mark Carney says middle powers such as Canada must accept that the rules-based international order is effectively dead, and great power rivalry with is here to stay. Key excerpt:
January 20, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Abe and I were talking last week about the "I wish for policy influence - the monkey's finger uncurls" problem. When our arguments become more topical is when the world is getting worse.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
"Chicken pox changed our lives. If I'd known we'd have got the vaccine"
As a new chicken pox vaccine is rolled out, I spoke to two families devastated by severe pox related complications for @thetimes.com parenting section:
www.thetimes.com/article/9119...
As a new chicken pox vaccine is rolled out, I spoke to two families devastated by severe pox related complications for @thetimes.com parenting section:
www.thetimes.com/article/9119...
Chickenpox changed our lives. If I’d known, we’d have got the vaccine
The NHS has just launched a vaccination programme for the common childhood illness. When Kelly Diggle’s son caught the virus, it led to dangerous complications
www.thetimes.com
January 21, 2026 at 8:26 AM
"Chicken pox changed our lives. If I'd known we'd have got the vaccine"
As a new chicken pox vaccine is rolled out, I spoke to two families devastated by severe pox related complications for @thetimes.com parenting section:
www.thetimes.com/article/9119...
As a new chicken pox vaccine is rolled out, I spoke to two families devastated by severe pox related complications for @thetimes.com parenting section:
www.thetimes.com/article/9119...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Trump's fantasy world. Extra investment in the US isn't even going to happen if the EU trade deal goes ahead. But this is why appeasement is the wrong word for dealing with him - the better analogy is playground games. It is all pretend with this US. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Doubts Greenland Threats Will Spoil Europe Trade Deal
President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the European Union would continue to invest in the US even if he imposed new tariffs related to his quest to take control of Greenland, a proposal that...
www.bloomberg.com
January 21, 2026 at 7:31 AM
Trump's fantasy world. Extra investment in the US isn't even going to happen if the EU trade deal goes ahead. But this is why appeasement is the wrong word for dealing with him - the better analogy is playground games. It is all pretend with this US. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump's promises that tariffs would fuel US manufacturing revival are not materialising
• US factories are shedding jobs, with employment falling by 0.6% in the year to November
• Upcoming renegotiation of USMCA will not help as firms also suffer from uncertainty
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• US factories are shedding jobs, with employment falling by 0.6% in the year to November
• Upcoming renegotiation of USMCA will not help as firms also suffer from uncertainty
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Trump's promises that tariffs would fuel US manufacturing revival are not materialising
• US factories are shedding jobs, with employment falling by 0.6% in the year to November
• Upcoming renegotiation of USMCA will not help as firms also suffer from uncertainty
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• US factories are shedding jobs, with employment falling by 0.6% in the year to November
• Upcoming renegotiation of USMCA will not help as firms also suffer from uncertainty
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Confrontée à l’agressivité d’un adversaire prévisible, la Russie, et à celle de son principal allié qui ne l’est plus, les Etats-Unis de Donald Trump, l’Europe doit faire face à une situation inédite, sous un double feu. Ma chronique à retrouver dans @nouvelobs.com www.nouvelobs.com/monde/202601...
De l’Ukraine au Groenland, l’Europe sous un double feu
Confrontée à l’agressivité d’un adversaire prévisible, la Russie, et à celle de son principal allié qui ne l’est plus, les Etats-Unis de Donald Trump, l’Europe doit faire face à une situation inédite.
www.nouvelobs.com
January 20, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Confrontée à l’agressivité d’un adversaire prévisible, la Russie, et à celle de son principal allié qui ne l’est plus, les Etats-Unis de Donald Trump, l’Europe doit faire face à une situation inédite, sous un double feu. Ma chronique à retrouver dans @nouvelobs.com www.nouvelobs.com/monde/202601...
Canada is providing template to G7 economies when it comes to responding to Trumponomics
• Ottawa is hard at work to ink free-trade deals with new partners, like Indonesia or Mercosur
• Strategy acknowledges that US will remain largest partner while making space for others
www.ft.com/content/1916...
• Ottawa is hard at work to ink free-trade deals with new partners, like Indonesia or Mercosur
• Strategy acknowledges that US will remain largest partner while making space for others
www.ft.com/content/1916...
January 20, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Canada is providing template to G7 economies when it comes to responding to Trumponomics
• Ottawa is hard at work to ink free-trade deals with new partners, like Indonesia or Mercosur
• Strategy acknowledges that US will remain largest partner while making space for others
www.ft.com/content/1916...
• Ottawa is hard at work to ink free-trade deals with new partners, like Indonesia or Mercosur
• Strategy acknowledges that US will remain largest partner while making space for others
www.ft.com/content/1916...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
In a speech to the World Economic Forum, Mark Carney says middle powers such as Canada must accept that the rules-based international order is effectively dead, and great power rivalry with is here to stay. Key excerpt:
January 20, 2026 at 3:48 PM
In a speech to the World Economic Forum, Mark Carney says middle powers such as Canada must accept that the rules-based international order is effectively dead, and great power rivalry with is here to stay. Key excerpt:
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Europe has no good options to respond to Trump's tariff threats over Greenland - in my latest for @ecfr.eu I outline five principles that Brussels and EU capitals may want to keep in mind when sketching out next steps (spoiler: ditch moot threats and focus on services trade)
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats – European Council on Foreign Relations
Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time
ecfr.eu
January 20, 2026 at 9:09 AM
Europe has no good options to respond to Trump's tariff threats over Greenland - in my latest for @ecfr.eu I outline five principles that Brussels and EU capitals may want to keep in mind when sketching out next steps (spoiler: ditch moot threats and focus on services trade)
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
EU and India may be "on the cusp" of finalising a trade deal - but they have had to cut corners to get here, and the sustainability provisions may be very weak. More by me below borderlex.net/2026/01/20/e...
EU, India 'on the cusp' of sealing trade pact - Borderlex - European trade policy
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU and India were "on the cusp" of concluding a free trade agreement.
borderlex.net
January 20, 2026 at 1:41 PM
EU and India may be "on the cusp" of finalising a trade deal - but they have had to cut corners to get here, and the sustainability provisions may be very weak. More by me below borderlex.net/2026/01/20/e...
Trump's fossil fuels push may not lead to employment boom
• New technologies, corporate mergers and automation resulted in loss of ~250,000 jobs since 2014
• Despite Trump's bold plans for fossil fuels sector, payrolls are now hovering at lowest level in three years
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• New technologies, corporate mergers and automation resulted in loss of ~250,000 jobs since 2014
• Despite Trump's bold plans for fossil fuels sector, payrolls are now hovering at lowest level in three years
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 20, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Trump's fossil fuels push may not lead to employment boom
• New technologies, corporate mergers and automation resulted in loss of ~250,000 jobs since 2014
• Despite Trump's bold plans for fossil fuels sector, payrolls are now hovering at lowest level in three years
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• New technologies, corporate mergers and automation resulted in loss of ~250,000 jobs since 2014
• Despite Trump's bold plans for fossil fuels sector, payrolls are now hovering at lowest level in three years
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
China's Tsinghua university is fast becoming major player in AI research
• University gets more patents per year than MIT, Stanford, Princeton, Harvard - combined
• Tsinghua's patents are less cited than US's, but size of patent portfolio partly compensates for that
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• University gets more patents per year than MIT, Stanford, Princeton, Harvard - combined
• Tsinghua's patents are less cited than US's, but size of patent portfolio partly compensates for that
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 20, 2026 at 11:01 AM
China's Tsinghua university is fast becoming major player in AI research
• University gets more patents per year than MIT, Stanford, Princeton, Harvard - combined
• Tsinghua's patents are less cited than US's, but size of patent portfolio partly compensates for that
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• University gets more patents per year than MIT, Stanford, Princeton, Harvard - combined
• Tsinghua's patents are less cited than US's, but size of patent portfolio partly compensates for that
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Europe has no good options to respond to Trump's tariff threats over Greenland - in my latest for @ecfr.eu I outline five principles that Brussels and EU capitals may want to keep in mind when sketching out next steps (spoiler: ditch moot threats and focus on services trade)
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats – European Council on Foreign Relations
Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time
ecfr.eu
January 20, 2026 at 9:09 AM
Europe has no good options to respond to Trump's tariff threats over Greenland - in my latest for @ecfr.eu I outline five principles that Brussels and EU capitals may want to keep in mind when sketching out next steps (spoiler: ditch moot threats and focus on services trade)
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
ecfr.eu/article/keep...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
There’s a tuberculosis outbreak at an Amazon warehouse in the UK.
Sick leave?
Respiratory protection?
Building ventilation?
State of workers T cells?
We *must* accept respiratory protection as part of our “new 💩 normal”.
www.unilad.com/news/world-n...
Sick leave?
Respiratory protection?
Building ventilation?
State of workers T cells?
We *must* accept respiratory protection as part of our “new 💩 normal”.
www.unilad.com/news/world-n...
Amazon confirms outbreak of ‘Victorian disease’ at warehouse
The disease, which is treatable with a vaccination, broke out at an Amazon warehouse, the company confirmed
www.unilad.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:01 AM
There’s a tuberculosis outbreak at an Amazon warehouse in the UK.
Sick leave?
Respiratory protection?
Building ventilation?
State of workers T cells?
We *must* accept respiratory protection as part of our “new 💩 normal”.
www.unilad.com/news/world-n...
Sick leave?
Respiratory protection?
Building ventilation?
State of workers T cells?
We *must* accept respiratory protection as part of our “new 💩 normal”.
www.unilad.com/news/world-n...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
A cautionary tale of what happened when Japan- a country with a strong health infrastructure shifted policies around encouraging vaccines against flu which lead to spiralling cases of flu. Under RFKJr leadership of health, the US is reducing vaccine access facing similar or worse risks #HealthPolicy
How do vaccine cutbacks affect public health? Ask Japan
As Robert F. Kennedy Jr slashes the US childhood vaccine roster, Japan is racing to make up for lost ground after decades of setbacks.
www.nature.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:02 AM
A cautionary tale of what happened when Japan- a country with a strong health infrastructure shifted policies around encouraging vaccines against flu which lead to spiralling cases of flu. Under RFKJr leadership of health, the US is reducing vaccine access facing similar or worse risks #HealthPolicy
Germany's industrial conglomerates are shedding divisions in hope of boosting profitability
• German conglomerates face intense Chinese competition, US tariffs and high energy costs
• Spin-offs free up capital that former conglomerates can invest in core activities
www.economist.com/business/202...
• German conglomerates face intense Chinese competition, US tariffs and high energy costs
• Spin-offs free up capital that former conglomerates can invest in core activities
www.economist.com/business/202...
January 20, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Germany's industrial conglomerates are shedding divisions in hope of boosting profitability
• German conglomerates face intense Chinese competition, US tariffs and high energy costs
• Spin-offs free up capital that former conglomerates can invest in core activities
www.economist.com/business/202...
• German conglomerates face intense Chinese competition, US tariffs and high energy costs
• Spin-offs free up capital that former conglomerates can invest in core activities
www.economist.com/business/202...
China is doubling down on de-risking - reducing reliance on EU and US as export markets
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
January 19, 2026 at 4:02 PM
China is doubling down on de-risking - reducing reliance on EU and US as export markets
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...