Adam Isacson
@adamisacson.com
He/Him. I work on security, borders, and migration at the Washington Office on Latin America (my views, not necessarily theirs). I'm also at wola.org, adamisacson.com, borderoversight.org, Mastodon elefanti.co/@adam
Only 58% of republicans support the boat strikes; only 39% support using the military for regime change.
From Reuters: www.reuters.com/world/us/jus...
From Reuters: www.reuters.com/world/us/jus...
November 14, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Only 58% of republicans support the boat strikes; only 39% support using the military for regime change.
From Reuters: www.reuters.com/world/us/jus...
From Reuters: www.reuters.com/world/us/jus...
If you like painfully convoluted, dishonest lawyering, the Office of Legal Counsel memo on the boat strikes has it all.
Come for "it's an armed conflict but not 'hostilities.'" Stay for whatever in the hell this is.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...
Come for "it's an armed conflict but not 'hostilities.'" Stay for whatever in the hell this is.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...
November 14, 2025 at 1:28 AM
If you like painfully convoluted, dishonest lawyering, the Office of Legal Counsel memo on the boat strikes has it all.
Come for "it's an armed conflict but not 'hostilities.'" Stay for whatever in the hell this is.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...
Come for "it's an armed conflict but not 'hostilities.'" Stay for whatever in the hell this is.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...
Except it turns out they've run out of names. This is from November 2017.
web.archive.org/web/20171110...
web.archive.org/web/20171110...
November 14, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Except it turns out they've run out of names. This is from November 2017.
web.archive.org/web/20171110...
web.archive.org/web/20171110...
They’re so good at branding/marketing.
That’s a much better name than “Operation Forget About the Files.”
That’s a much better name than “Operation Forget About the Files.”
November 14, 2025 at 12:01 AM
They’re so good at branding/marketing.
That’s a much better name than “Operation Forget About the Files.”
That’s a much better name than “Operation Forget About the Files.”
Where this is headed is scary and bad. See this MSNBC piece by former ICE official Jason Houser: www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
November 13, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Where this is headed is scary and bad. See this MSNBC piece by former ICE official Jason Houser: www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
This is from a few days ago, but worth emphasizing: in the current scenario, Tom Homan is the "moderate."
From www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
From www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
November 13, 2025 at 3:41 AM
This is from a few days ago, but worth emphasizing: in the current scenario, Tom Homan is the "moderate."
From www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
From www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
What a time to have an aircraft carrier and 8 destroyers parked near Venezuela.
November 13, 2025 at 12:21 AM
What a time to have an aircraft carrier and 8 destroyers parked near Venezuela.
"Impede caravans" sounds way more festive than they intend.
Something with a name like that would probably involve a lot of jam band music. "I got this hemp necklace from a merch table at the impede caravan."
Something with a name like that would probably involve a lot of jam band music. "I got this hemp necklace from a merch table at the impede caravan."
November 8, 2025 at 1:47 PM
"Impede caravans" sounds way more festive than they intend.
Something with a name like that would probably involve a lot of jam band music. "I got this hemp necklace from a merch table at the impede caravan."
Something with a name like that would probably involve a lot of jam band music. "I got this hemp necklace from a merch table at the impede caravan."
Border Patrol's apprehensions of migrants leveled off in October, after 2 months of sharp increases.
We may be returning to a seasonal pattern: up in spring and fall. Asylum seekers, who don't intend to be outdoors evading agents, are less seasonal… but there's no asylum to be had now.
We may be returning to a seasonal pattern: up in spring and fall. Asylum seekers, who don't intend to be outdoors evading agents, are less seasonal… but there's no asylum to be had now.
November 7, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Border Patrol's apprehensions of migrants leveled off in October, after 2 months of sharp increases.
We may be returning to a seasonal pattern: up in spring and fall. Asylum seekers, who don't intend to be outdoors evading agents, are less seasonal… but there's no asylum to be had now.
We may be returning to a seasonal pattern: up in spring and fall. Asylum seekers, who don't intend to be outdoors evading agents, are less seasonal… but there's no asylum to be had now.
The average age of people deported to Guatemala increased 3.3 years from 2024 to 2025, and 7.3 years from 2021 to 2025.
Most likely, rather than recent border arrivals, many more people aboard the ICE planes had been living in the US for a significant portion of their lives.
Most likely, rather than recent border arrivals, many more people aboard the ICE planes had been living in the US for a significant portion of their lives.
November 7, 2025 at 3:35 PM
The average age of people deported to Guatemala increased 3.3 years from 2024 to 2025, and 7.3 years from 2021 to 2025.
Most likely, rather than recent border arrivals, many more people aboard the ICE planes had been living in the US for a significant portion of their lives.
Most likely, rather than recent border arrivals, many more people aboard the ICE planes had been living in the US for a significant portion of their lives.
2025 marijuana seizures equaled what CBP, in 2018, would seize in just 20 days. 91% of marijuana is seized at the border in Texas—the only border state where you can't just buy it in a store without a prescription. (Who is smuggling it into the other 3 states? 🤷🏼♂️)
November 7, 2025 at 3:35 PM
2025 marijuana seizures equaled what CBP, in 2018, would seize in just 20 days. 91% of marijuana is seized at the border in Texas—the only border state where you can't just buy it in a store without a prescription. (Who is smuggling it into the other 3 states? 🤷🏼♂️)
Fentanyl seizures at the border dropped 46%. California and Arizona continue to account for 96% of all seizures. Ports of entry are where 86% of seizures happen.
November 7, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Fentanyl seizures at the border dropped 46%. California and Arizona continue to account for 96% of all seizures. Ports of entry are where 86% of seizures happen.
Wow, this leak to CNN very likely means no attacks inside Venezuela for now.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/p...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/p...
November 7, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Wow, this leak to CNN very likely means no attacks inside Venezuela for now.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/p...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/p...
Like dozens of judges (including Trump appointees) who’ve had to spell out what their rulings mean, a resolution before the Senate today spells out, in the case of Venezuela, what “Congress’s power to declare war” means.
This should pass easily—if Congress still cares about being a coequal branch.
This should pass easily—if Congress still cares about being a coequal branch.
November 6, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Like dozens of judges (including Trump appointees) who’ve had to spell out what their rulings mean, a resolution before the Senate today spells out, in the case of Venezuela, what “Congress’s power to declare war” means.
This should pass easily—if Congress still cares about being a coequal branch.
This should pass easily—if Congress still cares about being a coequal branch.
Not true obviously, but you save more lives when you stop a vessel and arrest those aboard, alive, if they're actually trafficking drugs.
Instead of drowned bodies, you get useful intel about their criminal structures, their support networks, their finances, and future vessels.
Instead of drowned bodies, you get useful intel about their criminal structures, their support networks, their finances, and future vessels.
November 6, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Not true obviously, but you save more lives when you stop a vessel and arrest those aboard, alive, if they're actually trafficking drugs.
Instead of drowned bodies, you get useful intel about their criminal structures, their support networks, their finances, and future vessels.
Instead of drowned bodies, you get useful intel about their criminal structures, their support networks, their finances, and future vessels.
The resolution going before the Senate tomorrow makes a simple demand: no U.S. hostilities in Venezuela unless Congress—which has the power to declare war—approves. This should be uncontroversial, regardless of party.
November 6, 2025 at 12:34 AM
The resolution going before the Senate tomorrow makes a simple demand: no U.S. hostilities in Venezuela unless Congress—which has the power to declare war—approves. This should be uncontroversial, regardless of party.
WOLA's updated fact sheet is here: www.wola.org/analysis/fac...
November 5, 2025 at 11:43 PM
WOLA's updated fact sheet is here: www.wola.org/analysis/fac...
"Border Report" says Border Patrol apprehended people 7,990 times at the U.S.-Mexico border in October: www.borderreport.com/immigration/...
If so, then increases since the summer have leveled off amid the continued unavailability of asylum at the border and climate of fear in the US interior.
If so, then increases since the summer have leveled off amid the continued unavailability of asylum at the border and climate of fear in the US interior.
November 5, 2025 at 10:51 PM
"Border Report" says Border Patrol apprehended people 7,990 times at the U.S.-Mexico border in October: www.borderreport.com/immigration/...
If so, then increases since the summer have leveled off amid the continued unavailability of asylum at the border and climate of fear in the US interior.
If so, then increases since the summer have leveled off amid the continued unavailability of asylum at the border and climate of fear in the US interior.
Here's the fake ID I use to get into Safeway.
November 5, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Here's the fake ID I use to get into Safeway.
7 of the last 9 illegal boat strikes, spanning 15 days, have happened in the eastern Pacific. Not the Caribbean, far from Venezuela.
(Hurricane Melissa may have been a factor, but who knows.)
(Hurricane Melissa may have been a factor, but who knows.)
November 5, 2025 at 12:44 PM
7 of the last 9 illegal boat strikes, spanning 15 days, have happened in the eastern Pacific. Not the Caribbean, far from Venezuela.
(Hurricane Melissa may have been a factor, but who knows.)
(Hurricane Melissa may have been a factor, but who knows.)
The NJ race was supposed to be close but Sherrill may end up with a margin similar to Spanberger's.
November 5, 2025 at 2:11 AM
The NJ race was supposed to be close but Sherrill may end up with a margin similar to Spanberger's.
Loudon County VA voted D+19 in 2017, D+11 in '21, D+16 in '24.
Now, D+28—a 12-point swing.
If you’re a Republican legislator who won your seat by <10 points, the President’s unpopularity clearly threatens your job.
Something to consider before the next vote on, say, “presidential war powers.”
Now, D+28—a 12-point swing.
If you’re a Republican legislator who won your seat by <10 points, the President’s unpopularity clearly threatens your job.
Something to consider before the next vote on, say, “presidential war powers.”
November 5, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Loudon County VA voted D+19 in 2017, D+11 in '21, D+16 in '24.
Now, D+28—a 12-point swing.
If you’re a Republican legislator who won your seat by <10 points, the President’s unpopularity clearly threatens your job.
Something to consider before the next vote on, say, “presidential war powers.”
Now, D+28—a 12-point swing.
If you’re a Republican legislator who won your seat by <10 points, the President’s unpopularity clearly threatens your job.
Something to consider before the next vote on, say, “presidential war powers.”