Aaron Strauss
@aaronstrauss.bsky.social
Following the evidence to elect more Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper
The Y axis label could also use some work....
November 24, 2025 at 10:56 PM
The Y axis label could also use some work....
A documented by @dhopkins1776.bsky.social, there's no secret anti-women vote. We can simply follow the polls and when, like in July 2024, they said Harris would lose by less than Biden, but Whitmer would actually win, we should believe then!
puck.news/biden-plunge...
puck.news/biden-plunge...
November 21, 2025 at 6:20 PM
A documented by @dhopkins1776.bsky.social, there's no secret anti-women vote. We can simply follow the polls and when, like in July 2024, they said Harris would lose by less than Biden, but Whitmer would actually win, we should believe then!
puck.news/biden-plunge...
puck.news/biden-plunge...
I have huge respect for Michelle Obama, but a plurality of the country disagrees! (And that was 9 years ago.) Clinton's voters, frustratingly, were simply located in the wrong states.
Also, the academic lit doesn't find a penalty for women candidates.
Also, the academic lit doesn't find a penalty for women candidates.
November 21, 2025 at 6:20 PM
I have huge respect for Michelle Obama, but a plurality of the country disagrees! (And that was 9 years ago.) Clinton's voters, frustratingly, were simply located in the wrong states.
Also, the academic lit doesn't find a penalty for women candidates.
Also, the academic lit doesn't find a penalty for women candidates.
Uh...that's referring to the bipartisan border bill that would have finally protected "Dreamers" in law rather than just executive action.
Beyond that it had little to say on immigrants currently in the US. Certainly didn't harm or "abandon" them.
Beyond that it had little to say on immigrants currently in the US. Certainly didn't harm or "abandon" them.
November 20, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Uh...that's referring to the bipartisan border bill that would have finally protected "Dreamers" in law rather than just executive action.
Beyond that it had little to say on immigrants currently in the US. Certainly didn't harm or "abandon" them.
Beyond that it had little to say on immigrants currently in the US. Certainly didn't harm or "abandon" them.
This is a great example because Pete and Spanberger say the same thing, but you have them as examples on both sides.
They are acting on core values (liberty, fairness), listening to voters, ensure transgender Americans' access to healthcare, and would be infinitely preferrable to Rs.
They are acting on core values (liberty, fairness), listening to voters, ensure transgender Americans' access to healthcare, and would be infinitely preferrable to Rs.
November 20, 2025 at 5:24 PM
This is a great example because Pete and Spanberger say the same thing, but you have them as examples on both sides.
They are acting on core values (liberty, fairness), listening to voters, ensure transgender Americans' access to healthcare, and would be infinitely preferrable to Rs.
They are acting on core values (liberty, fairness), listening to voters, ensure transgender Americans' access to healthcare, and would be infinitely preferrable to Rs.
I didn't mean one post to imply "all of these people did everything right 100% of the time"...but actually I do believe they voted to protect democracy, just fyi:
November 20, 2025 at 3:57 PM
I didn't mean one post to imply "all of these people did everything right 100% of the time"...but actually I do believe they voted to protect democracy, just fyi:
Great thing that we have over a thousand RCTs on turnout :) :) :)
And it's pretty clear on what works and what doesn't:
And it's pretty clear on what works and what doesn't:
November 20, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Great thing that we have over a thousand RCTs on turnout :) :) :)
And it's pretty clear on what works and what doesn't:
And it's pretty clear on what works and what doesn't:
A lot of corruption is insider-y, fair. See how much larger the affordability non-party group is vs the populist/anti-system group in @gelliottmorris.com's piece today.
That said, the vote did generate local press, which I'm sure MGP appreciates:
washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/11/17/w...
That said, the vote did generate local press, which I'm sure MGP appreciates:
washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/11/17/w...
November 20, 2025 at 3:04 PM
A lot of corruption is insider-y, fair. See how much larger the affordability non-party group is vs the populist/anti-system group in @gelliottmorris.com's piece today.
That said, the vote did generate local press, which I'm sure MGP appreciates:
washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/11/17/w...
That said, the vote did generate local press, which I'm sure MGP appreciates:
washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/11/17/w...
Hmmm...I'd actually challenge you to find a desire for "authenticity" in these open-end responses. Other than "people" (which might be "give people [x]"), I see a lot of policies and not much about the attributes of candidates. "Fight" is in there, but small; I can't find the word "authentic at all"
November 20, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Hmmm...I'd actually challenge you to find a desire for "authenticity" in these open-end responses. Other than "people" (which might be "give people [x]"), I see a lot of policies and not much about the attributes of candidates. "Fight" is in there, but small; I can't find the word "authentic at all"
November 20, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Here's a survey just out today that shows Americans' dissatisfaction with the current system. We need to internalize this by 2028 or we'll be in trouble. www.boston25news.com/news/politic...
November 20, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Here's a survey just out today that shows Americans' dissatisfaction with the current system. We need to internalize this by 2028 or we'll be in trouble. www.boston25news.com/news/politic...
Interesting how Leftist researchers like @adambonica.bsky.social and @kwcollins.bsky.social exhort us to focus on corruption (& rightly so!), but the Dems against Rep Garcia's deceit are mostly Blue Dog/New Dem "moderates", not the Squad
November 20, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Interesting how Leftist researchers like @adambonica.bsky.social and @kwcollins.bsky.social exhort us to focus on corruption (& rightly so!), but the Dems against Rep Garcia's deceit are mostly Blue Dog/New Dem "moderates", not the Squad
This is so so good from @gelliottmorris.com. Politicians will win tough elections when they LISTEN TO VOTERS and improve people's lives.
If you're charged with winning elections, this is mandatory reading (just Part 1 if you're pressed for time):
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
If you're charged with winning elections, this is mandatory reading (just Part 1 if you're pressed for time):
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
November 20, 2025 at 1:49 PM
This is so so good from @gelliottmorris.com. Politicians will win tough elections when they LISTEN TO VOTERS and improve people's lives.
If you're charged with winning elections, this is mandatory reading (just Part 1 if you're pressed for time):
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
If you're charged with winning elections, this is mandatory reading (just Part 1 if you're pressed for time):
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
So let's follow the data. Did Dem overperformance in 2023 special elections mean that we needn't be concerned about 2024? Low turnout is generally good for us these days, so I'd be eager to read your write-up of how much GA can tell us re 2028.
November 18, 2025 at 3:50 PM
So let's follow the data. Did Dem overperformance in 2023 special elections mean that we needn't be concerned about 2024? Low turnout is generally good for us these days, so I'd be eager to read your write-up of how much GA can tell us re 2028.
A good poll on the radical change people want. Cuts across parties
November 13, 2025 at 6:13 PM
A good poll on the radical change people want. Cuts across parties
Very curious how much this pivot affects MTG's perennial underperformance.
November 6, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Very curious how much this pivot affects MTG's perennial underperformance.
Yes, campaign effects are smaller these days. But at the same time, national contests -- control of the House, Senate, and presidency -- are narrower as well. As ICE abductions show, we desperately need to win these contests.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
November 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Yes, campaign effects are smaller these days. But at the same time, national contests -- control of the House, Senate, and presidency -- are narrower as well. As ICE abductions show, we desperately need to win these contests.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
Small effects matter.
Campaigns matter.
Candidates matter.
The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
November 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...
@searchlightinst.bsky.social ran the poll and candidates CAN determine how voters view them, even in an era of low ticket-splitting and nationalized discourse.
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
November 5, 2025 at 4:24 PM
@searchlightinst.bsky.social ran the poll and candidates CAN determine how voters view them, even in an era of low ticket-splitting and nationalized discourse.
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
If any chart gives you hope about 2028 when we'll have to run against populism, it should be this one on Mamdani's success:
Also the Jacobin graph scales are tricky. Harris did indeed talk about the economy, just not abnormally so or to even the extent that Biden did. This graph is most compelling imho.
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
October 31, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Also the Jacobin graph scales are tricky. Harris did indeed talk about the economy, just not abnormally so or to even the extent that Biden did. This graph is most compelling imho.
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
Even 1/10th of the cost of living bar to Harris' econ bar (to get the scales to align) -- she's lower than Biden
Also, n=1 examples leads to terrible logic. According to researchers, our side outspent Republicans 2:1 on presidential paid media in 2024. I guess we should...only run broadcast TV ads in the future?
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
October 31, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Also, n=1 examples leads to terrible logic. According to researchers, our side outspent Republicans 2:1 on presidential paid media in 2024. I guess we should...only run broadcast TV ads in the future?
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
(Kidding. Please don't quote me out of context!)
I'm a fan of @davekarpf.bsky.social and normally love his work, but this is just factually incorrect -- as demonstrated by Jacobin of all places.
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
October 31, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I'm a fan of @davekarpf.bsky.social and normally love his work, but this is just factually incorrect -- as demonstrated by Jacobin of all places.
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
A year ago, the Leftist critique of Harris was that she didn't talk about economic populism nearly enough!
Fair. I should have pasted this one too -- I used the other one because you can see the crescendo around democracy
October 31, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Fair. I should have pasted this one too -- I used the other one because you can see the crescendo around democracy
CA isn't close in terms of partisanship. If you're actually interested in this question, I recommend reading Part 6 of the report. Lots of great empirics there.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
October 28, 2025 at 7:20 PM
CA isn't close in terms of partisanship. If you're actually interested in this question, I recommend reading Part 6 of the report. Lots of great empirics there.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
Ah, for that you have to actual read the report. Admittedly, it's long report with lots of data: I recommend focusing on Part 6.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org
October 28, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Ah, for that you have to actual read the report. Admittedly, it's long report with lots of data: I recommend focusing on Part 6.
decidingtowin.org
decidingtowin.org