Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · 20h

A generation of babies born in the Saint Louis metro is missing from the demographic records. The region is missing about 220K to 300K residents based on the number births over deaths. Natural population increase has ended. Saint Louis will have a record number of deaths and not enough births.

1 2 1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · 1d

Last year, there were approximately 40,990 high school graduates in the 15-county Saint Louis MSA. 29,571 first graders are enrolled. By 2035 we may see around 27,000 graduates, a decline that signals a smaller future workforce and fewer young families entering adulthood in the region.

1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · 1d

A sneak peak at my talk tonight at the Missouri History Museum.

1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · 1d

Even if you did not make the correct. #1 and #2 are statistically the same score.

1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · 1d

If those scores are correct and you correct for variation whic is a standard statistical practice. H3 gets the higher score.

1 1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · 2d

Friends,

I will present new research on what could happen to the Saint Louis MSA. After 50 years of population growth, that era is coming to an end. STL will need an influx of new and younger residents who can build businesses, start families, and drive the next generation of growth.

2

Reposted by Ness Sandoval

Emily Woodbury @emilywoodbury.bsky.social · 23d

Preliminary results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey offer both encouragement and caution for the region’s future. We dig into it with @ybytata.bsky.social on @stlpublicradio.bsky.social. #STL #population #census

Read/listen 🔊:

The St. Louis region stands at a demographic crossroads, SLU professor says

Preliminary results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey offer both encouragement and caution for the region’s future.

www.stlpr.org

2 4

Reposted by Ness Sandoval

St. Louis Public Radio @stlpublicradio.bsky.social · Sep 15

St. Louis is at a demographic crossroads: new 2024 Census data show both warning signs and opportunities.

Saint Louis University professor Ness Sándoval joined @stlonair.bsky.social to talk about how building more single‑family homes may be key to sustaining growth.

The St. Louis region stands at a demographic crossroads, SLU professor says

Preliminary results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey offer both encouragement and caution for the region’s future.

www.stlpr.org

1 3 3

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Sep 12

Trends for the Saint Louis MSA

www.datawrapper.de/_/D48rP/

Saint Louis MSA Trends for Hispanic Or Latino Origin By Race | Created with Datawrapper

Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

www.datawrapper.de

1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Sep 12

Friends,

Join me today at noon on St. Louis on the Air as we consider the newest census release. It is a mixed story for our region, filled with both challenge and promise.

Here is some national data

Join us we talk how these trends look locally.

www.datawrapper.de/_/StTrO/

National Trends for Hispanic Or Latino Origin By Race | Created with Datawrapper

Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

www.datawrapper.de

4

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Sep 11

“The city has about a year to keep hope alive. And there has to be some evidence of a rebuilding.” Ness Sándoval, St. Louis University demographer.

www.stlpr.org/health-scien...

As St. Louis homes fall to post-storm demolition, residents consider: Stay or go?

In the wake of the May 16 tornado, applications for demolition permits on private property doubled. Property owners are making tough decisions to raze their homes, and whether to stay or leave the cit...

www.stlpr.org

2 2

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 29

There simply are not enough of projected births to offset the deaths of Baby Boomers, let alone GenX deaths. The region will shrink with migration.

1 1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 29

If we work collaboratively to build housing and attract migration from other states and counties, we could see around 450,000 births during the period when Baby Boomers are passing away. This assumes no significant decline in fertility over the next two decades.

1 1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 28

In the 15-county Saint Louis MSA, an estimated 625,000 Baby Boomers will die over the next two decades. The region will face a profound demographic test. If we are fortunate, we may welcome around 520,000 births during that same period. A more realistic estimate is closer to 450,000 we work today.

1 1 3

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 27

This is the path to growth when deaths outnumber births. The state added 101 residents from migration and 59,819 international migrants from 2020 to 2024. The city and county have to do a better job of welcoming new residents and investing in the current residents.

5

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 26

But there people like me that publicized the facts that let the public judge for themselves the demographic health of the state.

4

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 26

Missouri is struggling to recover from COVID. The state does not have the demographic resilience to return to a pattern of more births than deaths. Many people are upset that I made this map. Maybe it is a reminder that state never prioritized families with children. You can hide the facts.

2 2 12

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 26

Newsflash: families and children won’t wait 5–7 years for North Saint Louis neighborhoods to be rebuilt. The story of population loss is really about the city’s failure to see that the candle of hope is slowly burning out.

1 15

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 26

Blown off the Map: From Demographic Shock to Aftershock, Neighborhood Change After the May Tornado

The aftershock will be much larger than the demographic shock.

www.stltoday.com/news/local/e...

Attendance drops by almost half at St. Louis schools relocated after the tornado

On Tuesday, the second day of school, 938 students showed up to their temporary buildings for a loss of 44% of enrollment since last year.

www.stltoday.com

2

Reposted by Ness Sandoval

State of St. Louis @stateofstlouis.bsky.social · Aug 24

1-4 pm September 14th Oratorio STL Workshop at St. Francis de Sales Oratory

Courtyard Urbanism: Building Cities for Families

Register www.eventbrite.com/e/courtyard-...

Also see @ybytata.bsky.social posts

Emily Woodbury @emilywoodbury.bsky.social · Aug 15

SLU Professor @ybytata.bsky.social says Detroit has been able to stem the tide of population loss by prioritizing families with kids — and that St. Louis would do well to follow its lead. #STL #population #birthrate #immigration #census

Read/listen 🔊:

Demographer warns St. Louis could face early consequences of America’s falling birth rate

SLU professor Ness Sándoval says that Detroit has been able to stem the tide of population loss by prioritizing families with kids — and that St. Louis would do well to follow its lead.

www.stlpr.org

1 1

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 22

These are the top cities in 2023 where people relocated from another MSA. The demographic clock is ticking—Americans are on the move. Fewer are moving to Saint Louis City. The city is still ranked 4th in Missouri. It is the top destination in the STL region. www.datawrapper.de/_/tsZwr/

Geographical Mobility in the Past Year for Current Residence - Moved Different Metropolitan Statistical Area | Created with Datawrapper

Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

www.datawrapper.de

2

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 22

Saint Louis City loses when it prioritizes buildings over people. Migration into the city is slowing—only 8,036 residents moved in from another metro area in 2023, compared to 10,475 in 2010. Doubling down on buildings without children is not a wise investment.

1 10

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 21

I don’t think we’ll get a single ‘Wow’ moment in Saint Louis over the next few years, but rather a series of ‘Oh wow, what the F…’ moments. That’s my gut reaction today.

2 2 9

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 20

I meant to emphasize population, but are a top 25 by GDP.

2

Ness Sandoval @ybytata.bsky.social · Aug 20

I do not like to sound overly critical but when PR post charts without even checking the legend & claim STL is an emerging AI metro, I cant help but push back. We are the 23rd largest MSA, by economic size, we should already be a star hub. What we are really doing is bragging about being behind.

1 3