Tim Morris
@timpmorris.bsky.social
Biostatistician working on methodology at Novartis. Simulation studies, non-inferiority, missing data, estimands, covariate adjustment…
He/him
https://tpmorris.substack.com/
He/him
https://tpmorris.substack.com/
The opposite applies if you’re using a German word, because everyone loves learning and remembers German-word-for terms
People, short-hand terms are supposed to conjure some meaning for the thing they describe!
If your short-hand terms are Latin, you may as well be using A and B because, though equally non-descriptive, they are at least shorter.
If your short-hand terms are Latin, you may as well be using A and B because, though equally non-descriptive, they are at least shorter.
December 10, 2025 at 11:18 AM
The opposite applies if you’re using a German word, because everyone loves learning and remembers German-word-for terms
People, short-hand terms are supposed to conjure some meaning for the thing they describe!
If your short-hand terms are Latin, you may as well be using A and B because, though equally non-descriptive, they are at least shorter.
If your short-hand terms are Latin, you may as well be using A and B because, though equally non-descriptive, they are at least shorter.
December 10, 2025 at 9:51 AM
People, short-hand terms are supposed to conjure some meaning for the thing they describe!
If your short-hand terms are Latin, you may as well be using A and B because, though equally non-descriptive, they are at least shorter.
If your short-hand terms are Latin, you may as well be using A and B because, though equally non-descriptive, they are at least shorter.
Reposted by Tim Morris
When I'm right, I'm right; and when I'm wrong, I'm just trying to create a teachable moment.
November 17, 2025 at 3:13 PM
When I'm right, I'm right; and when I'm wrong, I'm just trying to create a teachable moment.
Reposted by Tim Morris
Mark your diaries! The ViCBiostat Summer School returns from 13-20 Feb 2026, in Melbourne and online.
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
November 12, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Mark your diaries! The ViCBiostat Summer School returns from 13-20 Feb 2026, in Melbourne and online.
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework.
Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au
#statistics
Look I’m glad people love these speed awareness courses so much, I just think one of the lessons should be to avoid banging on about speeding facts they’ve learned to people who have never had a speeding ticket and didn’t need the 🤬 course in the first place
November 24, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Look I’m glad people love these speed awareness courses so much, I just think one of the lessons should be to avoid banging on about speeding facts they’ve learned to people who have never had a speeding ticket and didn’t need the 🤬 course in the first place
Reposted by Tim Morris
"we probably do not need to worry about the fact that the actual effect of one treatment rather than the other is not the same for all patients. Quite limited knowledge about an average improvement is the best that we can do" John Tukey, Controlled Clinical Trials, 1993 p282
November 24, 2025 at 12:01 PM
"we probably do not need to worry about the fact that the actual effect of one treatment rather than the other is not the same for all patients. Quite limited knowledge about an average improvement is the best that we can do" John Tukey, Controlled Clinical Trials, 1993 p282
Reposted by Tim Morris
HYBRID EVENT: 'Introduction to Quantitative Bias' with Rachel Hughes on Monday 1st December at 10am-12pm UK time.
For those near Leeds, bring your laptop and enjoy this as an in-person session!
Sign-up before 9am on Thursday 27th via: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/introducti...
For those near Leeds, bring your laptop and enjoy this as an in-person session!
Sign-up before 9am on Thursday 27th via: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/introducti...
November 24, 2025 at 11:28 AM
HYBRID EVENT: 'Introduction to Quantitative Bias' with Rachel Hughes on Monday 1st December at 10am-12pm UK time.
For those near Leeds, bring your laptop and enjoy this as an in-person session!
Sign-up before 9am on Thursday 27th via: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/introducti...
For those near Leeds, bring your laptop and enjoy this as an in-person session!
Sign-up before 9am on Thursday 27th via: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/introducti...
Is the Premier League table super tight or not? A 6-point gap between 1st and 2nd and a 5-point gap between 2nd and 11th.
November 23, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Is the Premier League table super tight or not? A 6-point gap between 1st and 2nd and a 5-point gap between 2nd and 11th.
Two wow features of typing on an iPhone in 2025:
1. It can accept the word “estimand” but not “ill” (always corrects to “I’ll”) or “Tim” (always corrects to “Tom” FFS).
2. Moving the cursor to edit something takes like 5–10 taps or some hack, and behaviour depends on the app 🤷
1. It can accept the word “estimand” but not “ill” (always corrects to “I’ll”) or “Tim” (always corrects to “Tom” FFS).
2. Moving the cursor to edit something takes like 5–10 taps or some hack, and behaviour depends on the app 🤷
November 21, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Two wow features of typing on an iPhone in 2025:
1. It can accept the word “estimand” but not “ill” (always corrects to “I’ll”) or “Tim” (always corrects to “Tom” FFS).
2. Moving the cursor to edit something takes like 5–10 taps or some hack, and behaviour depends on the app 🤷
1. It can accept the word “estimand” but not “ill” (always corrects to “I’ll”) or “Tim” (always corrects to “Tom” FFS).
2. Moving the cursor to edit something takes like 5–10 taps or some hack, and behaviour depends on the app 🤷
Periodic reminder that if someone describes Consort as a trial design (or analysis) guideline, it means they haven’t yet got to the title. Applies to other reporting guidelines too.
😘
😘
November 15, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Periodic reminder that if someone describes Consort as a trial design (or analysis) guideline, it means they haven’t yet got to the title. Applies to other reporting guidelines too.
😘
😘
Does this enrage you too? Publishers adding a random page nobody wants at the beginning of a pdf, bigger than the rest of the pages – the ones people actually want to read – messing up the fit-to-width size of pages you do want to read! Just making readers’ lives pointlessly difficult.
November 11, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Does this enrage you too? Publishers adding a random page nobody wants at the beginning of a pdf, bigger than the rest of the pages – the ones people actually want to read – messing up the fit-to-width size of pages you do want to read! Just making readers’ lives pointlessly difficult.
Reposted by Tim Morris
Potential outcomes tabs in Outlook! DAGs in your Google query! Marginal structural models to help you plan your next vacation!
The advances we've made in statistics, experimental study design, and causal inference over the past century are remarkably useful for understanding our world. But there is never been a push to make people use them like we are seeing with generative AI. Perhaps take a moment to consider why.
November 7, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Potential outcomes tabs in Outlook! DAGs in your Google query! Marginal structural models to help you plan your next vacation!
A small joy I get as an associate editor is that reviewers all answer “Would you like to receive recognition for your review using [Publons / Web of Science™ / whatevs]?” with “No” 😆
Also that journals continue to check, as if this still might be a winner.
Hold the line folks.
Also that journals continue to check, as if this still might be a winner.
Hold the line folks.
November 7, 2025 at 6:44 AM
A small joy I get as an associate editor is that reviewers all answer “Would you like to receive recognition for your review using [Publons / Web of Science™ / whatevs]?” with “No” 😆
Also that journals continue to check, as if this still might be a winner.
Hold the line folks.
Also that journals continue to check, as if this still might be a winner.
Hold the line folks.
Reposted by Tim Morris
📊 Next week, we'll be exploring a new #statistics modelling framework called regression by composition, with examples from growth modelling & HIV trials #healthdata
🗓️ Tuesday 4 November, 12:50-13:50 GMT
📍 LSHTM | Online
Join us ⬇️
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
🗓️ Tuesday 4 November, 12:50-13:50 GMT
📍 LSHTM | Online
Join us ⬇️
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
October 31, 2025 at 4:26 PM
📊 Next week, we'll be exploring a new #statistics modelling framework called regression by composition, with examples from growth modelling & HIV trials #healthdata
🗓️ Tuesday 4 November, 12:50-13:50 GMT
📍 LSHTM | Online
Join us ⬇️
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
🗓️ Tuesday 4 November, 12:50-13:50 GMT
📍 LSHTM | Online
Join us ⬇️
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
One bit that made me laugh in Ros Atkins’ “The Art of Explanation” is when he’s discussing presentations and has a subsection titled something like “Have a hands plan”.
October 31, 2025 at 11:13 AM
One bit that made me laugh in Ros Atkins’ “The Art of Explanation” is when he’s discussing presentations and has a subsection titled something like “Have a hands plan”.
When referring to an unspecified, imaginary person, why do some writers need to refer to them specifically as “she” or “he”?
🧠: are you proudly showing that your imagination is this specific or are you just really against using “they”?
Either way, it’s a distraction.
🧠: are you proudly showing that your imagination is this specific or are you just really against using “they”?
Either way, it’s a distraction.
October 30, 2025 at 8:36 AM
When referring to an unspecified, imaginary person, why do some writers need to refer to them specifically as “she” or “he”?
🧠: are you proudly showing that your imagination is this specific or are you just really against using “they”?
Either way, it’s a distraction.
🧠: are you proudly showing that your imagination is this specific or are you just really against using “they”?
Either way, it’s a distraction.
Reposted by Tim Morris
Classic bit of pathetic fallacy here from my gluten-free bread
October 10, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Classic bit of pathetic fallacy here from my gluten-free bread
New (short) post on hearing criticism of your work.
No, I’m not telling you who it was – they will recognise themself!
open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...
No, I’m not telling you who it was – they will recognise themself!
open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...
October 8, 2025 at 4:17 PM
New (short) post on hearing criticism of your work.
No, I’m not telling you who it was – they will recognise themself!
open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...
No, I’m not telling you who it was – they will recognise themself!
open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...
Reposted by Tim Morris
My favorite genre of fiction is Thesis Acknowledgments.
May 2, 2025 at 10:39 AM
My favorite genre of fiction is Thesis Acknowledgments.
Straight onto my reading list
Arman Oganisian: Untangling Sample and Population Level Estimands in Bayesian Causal Inference https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15016 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.15016 https://arxiv.org/html/2508.15016
September 24, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Straight onto my reading list
The defenders of British Values, having completed their work assaulting police officers, have returned home, leaving London a Dystopian Hellscape once again
September 15, 2025 at 8:33 AM
The defenders of British Values, having completed their work assaulting police officers, have returned home, leaving London a Dystopian Hellscape once again
Why does everyone who picks up the mic at this conference feel they have to mention this talk, whether grudgingly or positively??
September 11, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Why does everyone who picks up the mic at this conference feel they have to mention this talk, whether grudgingly or positively??
Miguel Hernán is presenting at EFSPI and giving a frankly embarrassing rant about (addendum-style) estimands. While lots of people are constructively using it to complement causal inference, he is sticking to basic & straw-man gripes that are easily addressed by thinking or listening to others.
September 10, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Miguel Hernán is presenting at EFSPI and giving a frankly embarrassing rant about (addendum-style) estimands. While lots of people are constructively using it to complement causal inference, he is sticking to basic & straw-man gripes that are easily addressed by thinking or listening to others.
Interesting discussion with collaborators about whether it’s acceptable to say anything negative about PPI.
They showed a quote that seems like a huge “therefore” lurch!
1/
researchinvolvement.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
They showed a quote that seems like a huge “therefore” lurch!
1/
researchinvolvement.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
September 5, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Interesting discussion with collaborators about whether it’s acceptable to say anything negative about PPI.
They showed a quote that seems like a huge “therefore” lurch!
1/
researchinvolvement.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
They showed a quote that seems like a huge “therefore” lurch!
1/
researchinvolvement.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....