Sunset Shazz
@sunsetshazz.bsky.social
Football, decision theory, and economics. Model pluralist.
Pinned
Sunset Shazz
@sunsetshazz.bsky.social
· Feb 10
Band at Fritzel’s on Bourbon St playing Fly Eagles Fly in the wee hours, with @denizselman33.bsky.social, no big deal.
Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.
November 28, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
#Eagles offensive consistency metrics
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
#Eagles offensive consistency metrics
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
I think the sample size is sufficient that Mr. Lurie should make the switch (back) to Kelly Green permanent.
November 23, 2025 at 10:13 PM
I think the sample size is sufficient that Mr. Lurie should make the switch (back) to Kelly Green permanent.
The 2025 Eagles play a brand of conservative, boring offense, built around minimizing turnovers. I guess they looked at the analytics and realized it is unlikely for Jalen Hurts to reach, let alone win, a Super Bowl. They need to protect him.
#Eagles offense is...
- not consistent like 2024 (suffering most zero or negative yard plays of Sirianni/Hurts era)
- not explosive like 2022 (producing fewest 10+ yard plays of era)
Is it just the tough schedule? We will begin to see in the next few weeks, against bad defenses.
- not consistent like 2024 (suffering most zero or negative yard plays of Sirianni/Hurts era)
- not explosive like 2022 (producing fewest 10+ yard plays of era)
Is it just the tough schedule? We will begin to see in the next few weeks, against bad defenses.
November 21, 2025 at 11:42 PM
The 2025 Eagles play a brand of conservative, boring offense, built around minimizing turnovers. I guess they looked at the analytics and realized it is unlikely for Jalen Hurts to reach, let alone win, a Super Bowl. They need to protect him.
I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:
November 19, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:
I have been reading/watching the judicious Fran Duffy for over a decade. When he speaks in such stark terms (about the Eagles offense), you should pay attention.
November 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
I have been reading/watching the judicious Fran Duffy for over a decade. When he speaks in such stark terms (about the Eagles offense), you should pay attention.
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
I would describe Fran's review of the passing game in this one as "genuinely distressing."
November 18, 2025 at 7:47 PM
I would describe Fran's review of the passing game in this one as "genuinely distressing."
In 2023, the Eagles ran "The Gauntlet" of top teams and faded down the stretch. This year, they have faced the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th ranked teams on Inpredictable, emerging 4-0 in those games, in pole position for the 1 seed in the NFC.
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
NFL Betting Market Rankings
stats.inpredictable.com
November 17, 2025 at 5:43 PM
In 2023, the Eagles ran "The Gauntlet" of top teams and faded down the stretch. This year, they have faced the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th ranked teams on Inpredictable, emerging 4-0 in those games, in pole position for the 1 seed in the NFC.
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
Henceforth, we shall call this The Janky Rondo game.
November 17, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Henceforth, we shall call this The Janky Rondo game.
Most organizations strive for mediocrity. Few seek to be great. I have worked in both types, and from my experience, a truly great organization needs an AJ Brown who is vocal about pushing through the inexorable gravitational pull of mediocrity.
November 15, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Most organizations strive for mediocrity. Few seek to be great. I have worked in both types, and from my experience, a truly great organization needs an AJ Brown who is vocal about pushing through the inexorable gravitational pull of mediocrity.
@sheilkapadia.bsky.social @daboulciff.bsky.social
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
November 14, 2025 at 1:16 AM
@sheilkapadia.bsky.social @daboulciff.bsky.social
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
Homer was famous for epithets, eg “fleet-footed Achilles” or “wily Odysseus”. Henceforth, irrespective of win-loss record, we should refer to him as “embattled head coach Nick Sirianni”.
November 12, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Homer was famous for epithets, eg “fleet-footed Achilles” or “wily Odysseus”. Henceforth, irrespective of win-loss record, we should refer to him as “embattled head coach Nick Sirianni”.
Jaire Alexander played as many snaps for the Eagles as Frank Gore. Legends, both.
November 12, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Jaire Alexander played as many snaps for the Eagles as Frank Gore. Legends, both.
Thaaaaaaaaat’s right…
The 'ALL NFL Draft Podcast' is here!
This week I'm joined by my friend @danebrugler.bsky.social to look at the 2026 #NFLDraft class position-by-position
- Should QBs stay or go?
- The value of the RB/LB/S
- The strength of the OL class
- Versatile front 7 pieces
Join us!
(Link below 👇)
This week I'm joined by my friend @danebrugler.bsky.social to look at the 2026 #NFLDraft class position-by-position
- Should QBs stay or go?
- The value of the RB/LB/S
- The strength of the OL class
- Versatile front 7 pieces
Join us!
(Link below 👇)
The ALL NFL Draft Podcast with Fran Duffy
Football Podcast · Updated Daily · Anthony Gargano and Brian Baldinger breakdown the NFL in the way that only ALLCITY Network can. Live five times a week throughout the season the ALL NFL Podcast brin...
podcasts.apple.com
November 8, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Thaaaaaaaaat’s right…
Howie Roseman: "If you win $100, it's not like you have $100 that's found [and thus treated differently from the initial endowment], it's still your $100."
This refers to the "house money effect" on risk-taking, and how it can lead to suboptimal decisions.
This refers to the "house money effect" on risk-taking, and how it can lead to suboptimal decisions.
November 4, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Howie Roseman: "If you win $100, it's not like you have $100 that's found [and thus treated differently from the initial endowment], it's still your $100."
This refers to the "house money effect" on risk-taking, and how it can lead to suboptimal decisions.
This refers to the "house money effect" on risk-taking, and how it can lead to suboptimal decisions.
In 2023 the Niners bragged that their practices are more intense, longer and more frequent (in terms of padded practice) than the other 31 teams. Before this season, they were 32nd in adjusted games lost over Shanahan’s 8 seasons, 23rd or worse in 7 out of 8 seasons.
November 3, 2025 at 7:02 PM
In 2023 the Niners bragged that their practices are more intense, longer and more frequent (in terms of padded practice) than the other 31 teams. Before this season, they were 32nd in adjusted games lost over Shanahan’s 8 seasons, 23rd or worse in 7 out of 8 seasons.
Internet please get me a gif of apoplectic Daboll.
October 26, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Internet please get me a gif of apoplectic Daboll.
Thinking about this paper by Atanasov et al. The best forecasters make frequent, incremental updates to their beliefs.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters
Laboratory research has shown that both underreaction and overreaction to new information pose threats to forecasting accuracy. This article explores …
www.sciencedirect.com
October 25, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Thinking about this paper by Atanasov et al. The best forecasters make frequent, incremental updates to their beliefs.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
SB (min. 2 GS)
1. Russell Wilson (0.40)
2. Jalen Hurts (0.39)
3. Eli Manning (0.22)
4. Tom Brady (0.19)
5. Kurt Warner (0.05)
1. Russell Wilson (0.40)
2. Jalen Hurts (0.39)
3. Eli Manning (0.22)
4. Tom Brady (0.19)
5. Kurt Warner (0.05)
October 22, 2025 at 6:28 PM
SB (min. 2 GS)
1. Russell Wilson (0.40)
2. Jalen Hurts (0.39)
3. Eli Manning (0.22)
4. Tom Brady (0.19)
5. Kurt Warner (0.05)
1. Russell Wilson (0.40)
2. Jalen Hurts (0.39)
3. Eli Manning (0.22)
4. Tom Brady (0.19)
5. Kurt Warner (0.05)
The coaches need to let their killers do their thing. Pass the f’ing ball. (0.65 epa/dropback, -0.2 / rush)
Old and busted: Run the ball, Andy.
New hotness: Pass the ball, Kevin & Nick.
New hotness: Pass the ball, Kevin & Nick.
October 19, 2025 at 7:42 PM
The coaches need to let their killers do their thing. Pass the f’ing ball. (0.65 epa/dropback, -0.2 / rush)
Who had the more memorable Eagles career: Z’Darius Smith or Frank Gore?
October 13, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Who had the more memorable Eagles career: Z’Darius Smith or Frank Gore?
I have never been to the Linc, but Philadelphia sports fans should be knowledgeable enough to STFU when the offense is lining up for a play. Come on.
The #Eagles having to use silent cadence at home has been annoying me for a few years now.
First play: Steen is clearly slowed down by having to do the tap thing... (1/2)
First play: Steen is clearly slowed down by having to do the tap thing... (1/2)
October 6, 2025 at 8:39 PM
I have never been to the Linc, but Philadelphia sports fans should be knowledgeable enough to STFU when the offense is lining up for a play. Come on.
Eagles benefited from an iffy DPI call on Patrick Surtain. But that’s why you take a shot! Sometimes you get a completion, sometimes you get a flag! Aggressiveness pays off when you have talented QB and receivers.
October 5, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Eagles benefited from an iffy DPI call on Patrick Surtain. But that’s why you take a shot! Sometimes you get a completion, sometimes you get a flag! Aggressiveness pays off when you have talented QB and receivers.
The vast majority of professional athletes have nothing interesting or insightful to say. BG is not that guy, he is awesome. And over the years, Bo has built a level of trust and comfort where you get a “two dads talking” level podcast.
Latest episode of Unblocked with Brandon Graham
* Is unretirement on the table?
* Locker room drama
* The NFC East team he almost signed with
* Dave Fipp’s warning
* Howie’s hat confusion
And a lot more
youtu.be/oRTPDGTFAo0?...
* Is unretirement on the table?
* Locker room drama
* The NFC East team he almost signed with
* Dave Fipp’s warning
* Howie’s hat confusion
And a lot more
youtu.be/oRTPDGTFAo0?...
Brandon Graham on Possible Eagles Return, A.J. Brown’s Frustration & More | Unblocked Ep. 4
YouTube video by Brandon Graham Unblocked
youtu.be
October 5, 2025 at 12:42 AM
The vast majority of professional athletes have nothing interesting or insightful to say. BG is not that guy, he is awesome. And over the years, Bo has built a level of trust and comfort where you get a “two dads talking” level podcast.