Shane Oliver
@shaneoliver.bsky.social
Chief Economist & Head of Inv Strategy, AMP. Into boats, pop music, nature, economics, investing, my family…& being nice. I don’t solicit funds or spruik trading schemes.
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
December 6, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
US Uni Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly but remains weak
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
December 5, 2025 at 10:09 PM
US Uni Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly but remains weak
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US Sept real personal spending slowed to flat (mkt was +0.1%mom)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
December 5, 2025 at 10:06 PM
US Sept real personal spending slowed to flat (mkt was +0.1%mom)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Eurozone shares +0.1% (+0.7% wk)
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
December 5, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Eurozone shares +0.1% (+0.7% wk)
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
Weekly economic and market update - the Santa Rally; Aust econ stronger; cut public spending to ease capacity constraints; RBA to hold but sound hawkish; rate hike talk is premature but we now expect RBA on hold next year
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Weekly market update - 05-12-2025 - AMP
Global shares saw modest gains over the last week, as the markets digested the rebound from November’s low but with optimism about a Fed rate cut providing support.
www.amp.com.au
December 5, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Weekly economic and market update - the Santa Rally; Aust econ stronger; cut public spending to ease capacity constraints; RBA to hold but sound hawkish; rate hike talk is premature but we now expect RBA on hold next year
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Eurozone shares +0.4%
US shares +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.1%
Oil +1.1% to $59.7
Gold flat at 4208.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $108
Bitcoin $92.4k
ASX futures +0.2%
$A 0.6612 with $US flat
US shares +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.1%
Oil +1.1% to $59.7
Gold flat at 4208.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $108
Bitcoin $92.4k
ASX futures +0.2%
$A 0.6612 with $US flat
December 4, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Eurozone shares +0.4%
US shares +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.1%
Oil +1.1% to $59.7
Gold flat at 4208.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $108
Bitcoin $92.4k
ASX futures +0.2%
$A 0.6612 with $US flat
US shares +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.1%
Oil +1.1% to $59.7
Gold flat at 4208.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $108
Bitcoin $92.4k
ASX futures +0.2%
$A 0.6612 with $US flat
Australia’s goods trade surplus widened in October to $4.4bn with stronger exports (+3.4%mom) versus imports (+2%mom).
December 4, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Australia’s goods trade surplus widened in October to $4.4bn with stronger exports (+3.4%mom) versus imports (+2%mom).
Australian household spending rose a stronger than expected 1.3%mom/5.6%yoy reflecting a pick up in discretionary spending on clothing & furnishings reflecting promotional events & on hospitality thanks to cultural events. No need for a rate cut here (at least for now)
December 4, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Australian household spending rose a stronger than expected 1.3%mom/5.6%yoy reflecting a pick up in discretionary spending on clothing & furnishings reflecting promotional events & on hospitality thanks to cultural events. No need for a rate cut here (at least for now)
Eurozone shares +0.2%
US shares +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2% as soft ADP emp reinforces Fed rate cut expectations
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.06%
Oil +0.8% to $59.1
Gold +0.1% to $4208.2
Iron ore +0.8% to $108.2
Bitcoin $92.96k
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6601 with $US index -0.3%
US shares +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2% as soft ADP emp reinforces Fed rate cut expectations
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.06%
Oil +0.8% to $59.1
Gold +0.1% to $4208.2
Iron ore +0.8% to $108.2
Bitcoin $92.96k
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6601 with $US index -0.3%
December 3, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Eurozone shares +0.2%
US shares +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2% as soft ADP emp reinforces Fed rate cut expectations
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.06%
Oil +0.8% to $59.1
Gold +0.1% to $4208.2
Iron ore +0.8% to $108.2
Bitcoin $92.96k
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6601 with $US index -0.3%
US shares +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2% as soft ADP emp reinforces Fed rate cut expectations
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.06%
Oil +0.8% to $59.1
Gold +0.1% to $4208.2
Iron ore +0.8% to $108.2
Bitcoin $92.96k
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6601 with $US index -0.3%
Real household disp income is up from its recent lows helped by real wages grth & rate cuts but income tax is back to being a drag again.
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
December 3, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Real household disp income is up from its recent lows helped by real wages grth & rate cuts but income tax is back to being a drag again.
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
…the bad news is domestic price growth was high at +0.8%qoq driven by higher consumer prices (confirming the Q3 CPI)
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
December 3, 2025 at 1:36 AM
…the bad news is domestic price growth was high at +0.8%qoq driven by higher consumer prices (confirming the Q3 CPI)
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
Aust Sept qtr GDP +0.4%q <exp but +2.1%y due to revisions.
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
December 3, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Aust Sept qtr GDP +0.4%q <exp but +2.1%y due to revisions.
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
Eurozone shares +0.3%
US shares +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.6%
US 10 yr yld flat at 4.09%
Oil -1.4% to $58.6
Gold -0.8% to $4205.8
Iron ore +0.8% to $107.3
Bitcoin $91.6k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.6565 with $US index flat
US shares +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.6%
US 10 yr yld flat at 4.09%
Oil -1.4% to $58.6
Gold -0.8% to $4205.8
Iron ore +0.8% to $107.3
Bitcoin $91.6k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.6565 with $US index flat
December 2, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Eurozone shares +0.3%
US shares +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.6%
US 10 yr yld flat at 4.09%
Oil -1.4% to $58.6
Gold -0.8% to $4205.8
Iron ore +0.8% to $107.3
Bitcoin $91.6k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.6565 with $US index flat
US shares +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.6%
US 10 yr yld flat at 4.09%
Oil -1.4% to $58.6
Gold -0.8% to $4205.8
Iron ore +0.8% to $107.3
Bitcoin $91.6k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.6565 with $US index flat
Aust Q3 current account deficit flat at 2.3% of GDP
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
December 2, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Aust Q3 current account deficit flat at 2.3% of GDP
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
Oct building approvals -6.4%m after +11%m in Sep with volatile units -13%m
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
December 2, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Oct building approvals -6.4%m after +11%m in Sep with volatile units -13%m
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
Eurozone shares flat
US shares -0.5%, Nas -0.4%
US 10 yr yld +8bp to 4.09%…as Japan ylds up as Dec BoJ hike firms and Hassett firms in betting odds for Fed Chair
Oil +1.6% to $59.5
Gold flat at $4238.9
Iron ore +0.8% to $106.5
Bitcoin $85.8k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.654 w $US flat
US shares -0.5%, Nas -0.4%
US 10 yr yld +8bp to 4.09%…as Japan ylds up as Dec BoJ hike firms and Hassett firms in betting odds for Fed Chair
Oil +1.6% to $59.5
Gold flat at $4238.9
Iron ore +0.8% to $106.5
Bitcoin $85.8k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.654 w $US flat
December 1, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Eurozone shares flat
US shares -0.5%, Nas -0.4%
US 10 yr yld +8bp to 4.09%…as Japan ylds up as Dec BoJ hike firms and Hassett firms in betting odds for Fed Chair
Oil +1.6% to $59.5
Gold flat at $4238.9
Iron ore +0.8% to $106.5
Bitcoin $85.8k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.654 w $US flat
US shares -0.5%, Nas -0.4%
US 10 yr yld +8bp to 4.09%…as Japan ylds up as Dec BoJ hike firms and Hassett firms in betting odds for Fed Chair
Oil +1.6% to $59.5
Gold flat at $4238.9
Iron ore +0.8% to $106.5
Bitcoin $85.8k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.654 w $US flat
The ANZ Indeed job ads indicator fell again in November and continues to point to slower jobs growth ahead.
December 1, 2025 at 3:40 AM
The ANZ Indeed job ads indicator fell again in November and continues to point to slower jobs growth ahead.
The Nov MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.3%mom/3.2%yoy
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
December 1, 2025 at 3:38 AM
The Nov MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.3%mom/3.2%yoy
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
Aust Nov home prices up 1%mom with Bri,Per & Ade still booming but Syd & Mel slowing a bit. The rate cuts,housing shortfall & FHB support will likely keep prices rising in 2026 but gains may slow given rate uncertainty,worsening affordability & APRA moves to slow investors
December 1, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Aust Nov home prices up 1%mom with Bri,Per & Ade still booming but Syd & Mel slowing a bit. The rate cuts,housing shortfall & FHB support will likely keep prices rising in 2026 but gains may slow given rate uncertainty,worsening affordability & APRA moves to slow investors
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
November 29, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
Eurozone shares +0.3% (+2.8% wk)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
November 28, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Eurozone shares +0.3% (+2.8% wk)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
Here’s our latest podcast looking at: bitcoins plunge; Trump’s tariff roller coaster and what’s it achieved; the Fed; the Santa rally; and housing affordability.
youtube.com/watch?v=Zv9I...
youtube.com/watch?v=Zv9I...
Markets, Midterms & Money Moves Explained: Episode #164
YouTube video by Simplifying Investing Podcast
youtube.com
November 28, 2025 at 5:19 AM
Here’s our latest podcast looking at: bitcoins plunge; Trump’s tariff roller coaster and what’s it achieved; the Fed; the Santa rally; and housing affordability.
youtube.com/watch?v=Zv9I...
youtube.com/watch?v=Zv9I...
Aust credit growth accelerated further to 0.7%m/7.3%y with a pick up in biz lending, slower personal lending and a further slight acceleration in housing lending. The latter was driven by yet another surge in investor lending which explains APRAs move & it may have to do more.
November 28, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Aust credit growth accelerated further to 0.7%m/7.3%y with a pick up in biz lending, slower personal lending and a further slight acceleration in housing lending. The latter was driven by yet another surge in investor lending which explains APRAs move & it may have to do more.