Shane Oliver
@shaneoliver.bsky.social
Chief Economist & Head of Inv Strategy, AMP. Into boats, pop music, nature, economics, investing, my family…& being nice. I don’t solicit funds or spruik trading schemes.
RBA held at 3.6% & is more hawkish noting some of the pick up in infl may be temporary but it was broad based, labour mkt a little tight, improving priv demand could add to capacity pressure & infl risks tilted to upside. We see rates on hold next yr. Dec qtr CPI will be key initially
December 9, 2025 at 3:51 AM
RBA held at 3.6% & is more hawkish noting some of the pick up in infl may be temporary but it was broad based, labour mkt a little tight, improving priv demand could add to capacity pressure & infl risks tilted to upside. We see rates on hold next yr. Dec qtr CPI will be key initially
Aust Oct NAB biz survey showed a fall in confidence (lowest since Apr) & conditions with softer orders.
Employment continues to point to slightly softer jobs grth.
Cost pressures still trending down, with final product prices at a benign 0.6%qoq rate suggesting CPI inflation may slow
Employment continues to point to slightly softer jobs grth.
Cost pressures still trending down, with final product prices at a benign 0.6%qoq rate suggesting CPI inflation may slow
December 9, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Aust Oct NAB biz survey showed a fall in confidence (lowest since Apr) & conditions with softer orders.
Employment continues to point to slightly softer jobs grth.
Cost pressures still trending down, with final product prices at a benign 0.6%qoq rate suggesting CPI inflation may slow
Employment continues to point to slightly softer jobs grth.
Cost pressures still trending down, with final product prices at a benign 0.6%qoq rate suggesting CPI inflation may slow
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
December 6, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
Syd 59%=final ~59%,Dec avg 56
Mel 64%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Clearances are continuing to slide reflecting increasing talk of rate hikes & rising listings on a yr ago suggesting a slowing in the property mkt, but it’s also partly seasonal.
#ausecon
US Uni Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly but remains weak
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
December 5, 2025 at 10:09 PM
US Uni Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly but remains weak
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
1 year ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.1%
5-10 yr ahead inflation expectations fell back to 3.2% which is around the top of the range of the last few decades
(EvercoreISI and Bloomberg charts)
US Sept real personal spending slowed to flat (mkt was +0.1%mom)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
December 5, 2025 at 10:06 PM
US Sept real personal spending slowed to flat (mkt was +0.1%mom)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Core PCE deflation rose 0.2%mom/2.8%yoy down from 2.9%yoy in Aug which was in line with expectations
A Fed rate cut next week is a 95% probability according to the US money mkt.
(EvercoreISI charts)
Eurozone shares +0.1% (+0.7% wk)
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
December 5, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Eurozone shares +0.1% (+0.7% wk)
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
US shares +0.2% (+0.3% wk)..after earlier +0.6%, Nas +0.3% with core PCE in line with expectations
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.14%
Oil +0.8% to $60.1
Gold -0.3% to $4195.7
Iron ore -0.8% to $107.05
Bitcoin $89.2k
ASX futures -0.15%
$A 0.6641 w $US flat
Australia’s goods trade surplus widened in October to $4.4bn with stronger exports (+3.4%mom) versus imports (+2%mom).
December 4, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Australia’s goods trade surplus widened in October to $4.4bn with stronger exports (+3.4%mom) versus imports (+2%mom).
Australian household spending rose a stronger than expected 1.3%mom/5.6%yoy reflecting a pick up in discretionary spending on clothing & furnishings reflecting promotional events & on hospitality thanks to cultural events. No need for a rate cut here (at least for now)
December 4, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Australian household spending rose a stronger than expected 1.3%mom/5.6%yoy reflecting a pick up in discretionary spending on clothing & furnishings reflecting promotional events & on hospitality thanks to cultural events. No need for a rate cut here (at least for now)
Real household disp income is up from its recent lows helped by real wages grth & rate cuts but income tax is back to being a drag again.
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
December 3, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Real household disp income is up from its recent lows helped by real wages grth & rate cuts but income tax is back to being a drag again.
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
Productivity is also up from its lows but needs to improve more to sustain the recovery in real incomes.
Real unit labour cost growth -0.1%qoq
…the bad news is domestic price growth was high at +0.8%qoq driven by higher consumer prices (confirming the Q3 CPI)
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
December 3, 2025 at 1:36 AM
…the bad news is domestic price growth was high at +0.8%qoq driven by higher consumer prices (confirming the Q3 CPI)
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
Some good news was that productivity +0.2%q & is up 4 qtrs in a row at +0.8%y
And the household saving rate rose to 6.4% & is up from its recent low
ABS charts
Aust Sept qtr GDP +0.4%q <exp but +2.1%y due to revisions.
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
December 3, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Aust Sept qtr GDP +0.4%q <exp but +2.1%y due to revisions.
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
Consumer spending Just 0.5%q, but dwelling inv +1.8%q, biz inv +3.2% & public spending +1.2%q with drags from trade & inventory. Per capita GDP was flat & just +0.4%y. Overall slightly >RBA forecasts but neutral for rates
(ABS charts)
Aust Q3 current account deficit flat at 2.3% of GDP
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
December 2, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Aust Q3 current account deficit flat at 2.3% of GDP
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
Export volumes +1%q, imports +1.5%q
Net exports to cut -0.1%pt from Q3 GDP but offset by public spending +1.2%q which adds 0.4%pts. Taken together with softer biz data yesterday this leaves our Q3 GDP forecast at +0.7%q/2.2%y
Oct building approvals -6.4%m after +11%m in Sep with volatile units -13%m
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
December 2, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Oct building approvals -6.4%m after +11%m in Sep with volatile units -13%m
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
Approvals are running ~190k pa which, slightly > our current estimate of underlying housing demand at 185k pa but well below the Housing Accord target of 240k pa & not enuf to cut the 200-300k housing shortage by much
The ANZ Indeed job ads indicator fell again in November and continues to point to slower jobs growth ahead.
December 1, 2025 at 3:40 AM
The ANZ Indeed job ads indicator fell again in November and continues to point to slower jobs growth ahead.
The Nov MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.3%mom/3.2%yoy
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
December 1, 2025 at 3:38 AM
The Nov MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.3%mom/3.2%yoy
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
The trimmed mean rose 0.3%mom whcih is on the high side but is only running a bit above 2%yoy suggesting downside for the ABS’ trimmed mean. That said the MI version has tended to run below the ABS’ for much of the last 2 decades.
Aust Nov home prices up 1%mom with Bri,Per & Ade still booming but Syd & Mel slowing a bit. The rate cuts,housing shortfall & FHB support will likely keep prices rising in 2026 but gains may slow given rate uncertainty,worsening affordability & APRA moves to slow investors
December 1, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Aust Nov home prices up 1%mom with Bri,Per & Ade still booming but Syd & Mel slowing a bit. The rate cuts,housing shortfall & FHB support will likely keep prices rising in 2026 but gains may slow given rate uncertainty,worsening affordability & APRA moves to slow investors
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
November 29, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
Syd 62%=final ~61%,Nov avg 60
Mel 68%=final ~65%,Nov avg 61
Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd, but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting.
#ausecon
Eurozone shares +0.3% (+2.8% wk)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
November 28, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Eurozone shares +0.3% (+2.8% wk)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
US shares +0.5% (+3.7% wk, +0.1% mth), Nasdaq +0.65%
US 10 yr yld +2bp to 4.01%
Oil -0.6% to $58.55
Gold +2% to $4239.4
Iron ore +0.8% to $105.7
Bitcoin $91.1k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.655 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)
Aust credit growth accelerated further to 0.7%m/7.3%y with a pick up in biz lending, slower personal lending and a further slight acceleration in housing lending. The latter was driven by yet another surge in investor lending which explains APRAs move & it may have to do more.
November 28, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Aust credit growth accelerated further to 0.7%m/7.3%y with a pick up in biz lending, slower personal lending and a further slight acceleration in housing lending. The latter was driven by yet another surge in investor lending which explains APRAs move & it may have to do more.
Australian business investment surged 6.4%qoq in Sept qtr with bldings +2.1%q & equipment +11.5%q on the back of surging IT investment in data centres & transport inv (aircraft). We now expect Sept qtr GDP growth of 0.7%q/2.2%y.
Capex plans for 2025-26 are now solid at +7.1%y
Capex plans for 2025-26 are now solid at +7.1%y
November 27, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Australian business investment surged 6.4%qoq in Sept qtr with bldings +2.1%q & equipment +11.5%q on the back of surging IT investment in data centres & transport inv (aircraft). We now expect Sept qtr GDP growth of 0.7%q/2.2%y.
Capex plans for 2025-26 are now solid at +7.1%y
Capex plans for 2025-26 are now solid at +7.1%y
..regarding the APRA move to limit hi DTI loans to 20% of each bank’s lending from 1 Feb…the aggregate ratio at present is well below that suggesting it may be a while before it has much impact. It’s really a shot across the bows of the lenders not to let things heat up too much
November 27, 2025 at 12:19 AM
..regarding the APRA move to limit hi DTI loans to 20% of each bank’s lending from 1 Feb…the aggregate ratio at present is well below that suggesting it may be a while before it has much impact. It’s really a shot across the bows of the lenders not to let things heat up too much
As foreshadowed APRA will cap high debt to income lending from 1 Feb at 20% of home loans. While APRA says the aggregate is below that the move is pre-emptive & designed to cool investor activity before it gets too hot. This & less rate cuts will constrain home price grth next yr (APRA statement)
November 26, 2025 at 10:07 PM
As foreshadowed APRA will cap high debt to income lending from 1 Feb at 20% of home loans. While APRA says the aggregate is below that the move is pre-emptive & designed to cool investor activity before it gets too hot. This & less rate cuts will constrain home price grth next yr (APRA statement)
US initial jobless claims -6k and remaining low, but continuing claims +7k with rising trend…“low firing but low hiring”
Sep durable goods orders +0.5%mom (as exp) but capital goods orders & shipments ex aircraft and defence both up 0.9%mom and trending higher
(Bloomberg chart)
Sep durable goods orders +0.5%mom (as exp) but capital goods orders & shipments ex aircraft and defence both up 0.9%mom and trending higher
(Bloomberg chart)
November 26, 2025 at 8:44 PM
US initial jobless claims -6k and remaining low, but continuing claims +7k with rising trend…“low firing but low hiring”
Sep durable goods orders +0.5%mom (as exp) but capital goods orders & shipments ex aircraft and defence both up 0.9%mom and trending higher
(Bloomberg chart)
Sep durable goods orders +0.5%mom (as exp) but capital goods orders & shipments ex aircraft and defence both up 0.9%mom and trending higher
(Bloomberg chart)
..and guess where a lot of the inflation is coming from!
Market related price inflation has picked up to 2.8%yoy…
…but prices which are largely govt administered or indexed under govt regulation are up 7.8%yoy
Market related price inflation has picked up to 2.8%yoy…
…but prices which are largely govt administered or indexed under govt regulation are up 7.8%yoy
November 26, 2025 at 2:16 AM
..and guess where a lot of the inflation is coming from!
Market related price inflation has picked up to 2.8%yoy…
…but prices which are largely govt administered or indexed under govt regulation are up 7.8%yoy
Market related price inflation has picked up to 2.8%yoy…
…but prices which are largely govt administered or indexed under govt regulation are up 7.8%yoy
Electricity prices are +37%yoy due to the roll off of state rebates a year ago, but -10%mom as NSW and ACT got catch up Fed rebates. Electricity prices are roughly 21% below where they would be without the rebates. Which means pressure on Fed Gov to extend them beyond this yr
November 26, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Electricity prices are +37%yoy due to the roll off of state rebates a year ago, but -10%mom as NSW and ACT got catch up Fed rebates. Electricity prices are roughly 21% below where they would be without the rebates. Which means pressure on Fed Gov to extend them beyond this yr