Sarah Kirchberger
@sarahkirchberger.bsky.social
Director, Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (@ispk.bsky.social) | Vice President, German Maritime Institute (DMI) | Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council | ex-naval analyst @TKMS & ex-Sinology professor @Uni Hamburg.
Pinned
🧵 Am updating once more my PLA Navy type & age structure graphs. Been doing these occasionally since ca. 2010 as they help me keep a grip on #PLAN fleet development; perhaps others find them useful too.
Starting this new round with the aircraft carriers. Let me know in case of typos/mistakes pls!
Starting this new round with the aircraft carriers. Let me know in case of typos/mistakes pls!
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
Surprise! The “peace plan” is really just a plan for Trump, Witkoff, Don Junior and their friends to get rich.
Everything is a grift. (And the Hunter hunters are silent)
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Everything is a grift. (And the Hunter hunters are silent)
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
November 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Surprise! The “peace plan” is really just a plan for Trump, Witkoff, Don Junior and their friends to get rich.
Everything is a grift. (And the Hunter hunters are silent)
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Everything is a grift. (And the Hunter hunters are silent)
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
'Ukraine hit two tankers used by Russia to export oil while skirting Western sanctions with marine drones in the Black Sea, an official from the SBU security service said on Saturday.' www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Ukraine hit two 'shadow fleet' tankers with drones in Black Sea, security official says
Ukraine hit two tankers used by Russia to export oil while skirting Western sanctions with marine drones in the Black Sea, an official from the SBU security service said on Saturday.
www.reuters.com
November 29, 2025 at 1:43 PM
'Ukraine hit two tankers used by Russia to export oil while skirting Western sanctions with marine drones in the Black Sea, an official from the SBU security service said on Saturday.' www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
Upcoming missile firing activity in the Barents and White Seas:
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
November 29, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Upcoming missile firing activity in the Barents and White Seas:
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
Ukrainian approach to combatting the shadow fleet
Ukrainian forces released videos of the operation against the two oilers Kairo and Virat in the Black Sea which tried to reach the Russian coast.
The message is clear:
If you are a shipowner trying to get Russian oil, expect that you will lose your whole ship.
The message is clear:
If you are a shipowner trying to get Russian oil, expect that you will lose your whole ship.
November 29, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Ukrainian approach to combatting the shadow fleet
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
Ukrainian forces released videos of the operation against the two oilers Kairo and Virat in the Black Sea which tried to reach the Russian coast.
The message is clear:
If you are a shipowner trying to get Russian oil, expect that you will lose your whole ship.
The message is clear:
If you are a shipowner trying to get Russian oil, expect that you will lose your whole ship.
November 29, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Ukrainian forces released videos of the operation against the two oilers Kairo and Virat in the Black Sea which tried to reach the Russian coast.
The message is clear:
If you are a shipowner trying to get Russian oil, expect that you will lose your whole ship.
The message is clear:
If you are a shipowner trying to get Russian oil, expect that you will lose your whole ship.
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
Read a transcript of an Oct. 29 phone call between Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s most senior foreign-policy adviser, and Kirill Dmitriev, an economic adviser to the Russian president
Putin Advisers Discuss Plans for Dealing With Trump: Transcript
The following is a transcript of an Oct. 29 phone call between Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s most senior foreign-policy adviser, and Kirill Dmitriev, an economic adviser to the Russian president.
bloom.bg
November 25, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Read a transcript of an Oct. 29 phone call between Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s most senior foreign-policy adviser, and Kirill Dmitriev, an economic adviser to the Russian president
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
Brutal examination, agree fully: "Putin has just made one of his most cherished dreams come true: he has compromised the United States in his efforts to demolish international law. This is the primary objective of the Witkoff/Dmitriev peace plan".
desk-russie.info/2025/11/27/t...
desk-russie.info/2025/11/27/t...
The Witkoff/Dmitriev Peace Plan: Stupidity or Betrayal? • russian desk
Putin has just made one of his most cherished dreams come true: he has compromised the United States in his efforts to demolish international law. This is the
desk-russie.info
November 29, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Brutal examination, agree fully: "Putin has just made one of his most cherished dreams come true: he has compromised the United States in his efforts to demolish international law. This is the primary objective of the Witkoff/Dmitriev peace plan".
desk-russie.info/2025/11/27/t...
desk-russie.info/2025/11/27/t...
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
It is really quite striking that Witkoff sounds 100% like the German advocates of Nord Stream and business deals with the Kremlin as a bridge to peace and stability.
With the only difference that those doing the deals are now supposed to be Americans not Germans.
With the only difference that those doing the deals are now supposed to be Americans not Germans.
November 29, 2025 at 6:45 AM
It is really quite striking that Witkoff sounds 100% like the German advocates of Nord Stream and business deals with the Kremlin as a bridge to peace and stability.
With the only difference that those doing the deals are now supposed to be Americans not Germans.
With the only difference that those doing the deals are now supposed to be Americans not Germans.
Incredible Baltic Sea story! 🔱
Ideologically motivated mutiny aboard Soviet frigate made the Soviet Air Force wrongly bomb several own ships & almost led to them launching a ☢️ nuclear strike on rogue frigate. Swedish intelligence recorded all of it.
Even better than the famous ‘Whisky on the Rocks’!
Ideologically motivated mutiny aboard Soviet frigate made the Soviet Air Force wrongly bomb several own ships & almost led to them launching a ☢️ nuclear strike on rogue frigate. Swedish intelligence recorded all of it.
Even better than the famous ‘Whisky on the Rocks’!
Jeebus... I knew none of this...
The Real-Life Hunt For Red October Happened 50 Years Ago www.twz.com/sea/the-real...
The Real-Life Hunt For Red October Happened 50 Years Ago www.twz.com/sea/the-real...
The Real-Life Hunt For Red October Happened 50 Years Ago
The mutiny aboard a Soviet warship in November 1975 led to a chase across the Baltic Sea, involving nuclear-armed bombers.
www.twz.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Incredible Baltic Sea story! 🔱
Ideologically motivated mutiny aboard Soviet frigate made the Soviet Air Force wrongly bomb several own ships & almost led to them launching a ☢️ nuclear strike on rogue frigate. Swedish intelligence recorded all of it.
Even better than the famous ‘Whisky on the Rocks’!
Ideologically motivated mutiny aboard Soviet frigate made the Soviet Air Force wrongly bomb several own ships & almost led to them launching a ☢️ nuclear strike on rogue frigate. Swedish intelligence recorded all of it.
Even better than the famous ‘Whisky on the Rocks’!
🤖 Oh no, ”smart toys”🧸 now…
Last week, “an AI-equipped teddy bear started discussing sexually explicit topics. The product, FoloToy’s Kumma, ran on an OpenAI model and responded to questions about kink.
Products like the teddy bear are part of a global smart-toy market valued at $16.7bn in 2023.”
Last week, “an AI-equipped teddy bear started discussing sexually explicit topics. The product, FoloToy’s Kumma, ran on an OpenAI model and responded to questions about kink.
Products like the teddy bear are part of a global smart-toy market valued at $16.7bn in 2023.”
After a teddy bear talked about kink, AI watchdogs are warning parents against smart toys
Advocates are fighting against the $16.7bn global smart-toy market, decrying surveillance and a lack of regulation
www.theguardian.com
November 28, 2025 at 8:42 PM
🤖 Oh no, ”smart toys”🧸 now…
Last week, “an AI-equipped teddy bear started discussing sexually explicit topics. The product, FoloToy’s Kumma, ran on an OpenAI model and responded to questions about kink.
Products like the teddy bear are part of a global smart-toy market valued at $16.7bn in 2023.”
Last week, “an AI-equipped teddy bear started discussing sexually explicit topics. The product, FoloToy’s Kumma, ran on an OpenAI model and responded to questions about kink.
Products like the teddy bear are part of a global smart-toy market valued at $16.7bn in 2023.”
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
A central issue at trial for the My Lai massacre in Vietnam was whether an Army lieutenant, or the Army captain who was his superior, was responsible for the order to leave no survivors.
Neither suggested the SecDef would have given such a command.
Neither suggested the SecDef would have given such a command.
If the U.S. was at war, Pete Hegseth's order would be a war crime, a military lawyer said. Instead, it might just be murder. wapo.st/49KbUJ1
Hegseth order on first Caribbean boat strike, officials say: Kill them all
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a verbal order to kill all crew members in the Sept. 2 strike on a suspected drug boat. Navy SEALs fired a second missile.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 28, 2025 at 6:47 PM
A central issue at trial for the My Lai massacre in Vietnam was whether an Army lieutenant, or the Army captain who was his superior, was responsible for the order to leave no survivors.
Neither suggested the SecDef would have given such a command.
Neither suggested the SecDef would have given such a command.
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
Two Russian shadow fleet tankers caught fire in the Black Sea off Turkey after explosions, with all 25 crew evacuated from KAIROS heading to Novorossiysk and 20 safe aboard VIRAT struck 35 miles offshore, Turkish Transport Ministry reported.
November 28, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Two Russian shadow fleet tankers caught fire in the Black Sea off Turkey after explosions, with all 25 crew evacuated from KAIROS heading to Novorossiysk and 20 safe aboard VIRAT struck 35 miles offshore, Turkish Transport Ministry reported.
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
It is unfathomable that the USG lawyers would sign off on a no-survivors boat strike (no get of jail free card).
There's clear precedent dating back to World War II trial of Germans for that very act, which lawyers know well.
The Peleus World War II War Crimes Trial
www.usni.org/magazines/na...
There's clear precedent dating back to World War II trial of Germans for that very act, which lawyers know well.
The Peleus World War II War Crimes Trial
www.usni.org/magazines/na...
November 28, 2025 at 7:22 PM
It is unfathomable that the USG lawyers would sign off on a no-survivors boat strike (no get of jail free card).
There's clear precedent dating back to World War II trial of Germans for that very act, which lawyers know well.
The Peleus World War II War Crimes Trial
www.usni.org/magazines/na...
There's clear precedent dating back to World War II trial of Germans for that very act, which lawyers know well.
The Peleus World War II War Crimes Trial
www.usni.org/magazines/na...
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
In Trump admin's first strike on an alleged drug boat in Sept, Hegseth ordered everyone be killed, prompting a 2nd hit to finish off survivors in a mission led by SEAL Team 6. Gov lawyers warned such acts may violate murder laws.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Hegseth order on first Caribbean boat strike, officials say: Kill them all
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a verbal order to kill all crew members in the Sept. 2 strike on a suspected drug boat. Navy SEALs fired a second missile.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:44 PM
In Trump admin's first strike on an alleged drug boat in Sept, Hegseth ordered everyone be killed, prompting a 2nd hit to finish off survivors in a mission led by SEAL Team 6. Gov lawyers warned such acts may violate murder laws.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
What a time to be alive... 🫠
Your universe is a photocopy of a photocopy of a…
on.ft.com/4ahkNKa
on.ft.com/4ahkNKa
November 28, 2025 at 9:19 AM
What a time to be alive... 🫠
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
1/
🇸🇪🇺🇦 "Monday is not a bad day to die": Swedish politician turned Ukrainian soldier
Caroline Nurdengrip, a former member of the Swedish parliament, left her job and returned her party badge to volunteer in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion began.
🇸🇪🇺🇦 "Monday is not a bad day to die": Swedish politician turned Ukrainian soldier
Caroline Nurdengrip, a former member of the Swedish parliament, left her job and returned her party badge to volunteer in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion began.
November 27, 2025 at 11:23 PM
1/
🇸🇪🇺🇦 "Monday is not a bad day to die": Swedish politician turned Ukrainian soldier
Caroline Nurdengrip, a former member of the Swedish parliament, left her job and returned her party badge to volunteer in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion began.
🇸🇪🇺🇦 "Monday is not a bad day to die": Swedish politician turned Ukrainian soldier
Caroline Nurdengrip, a former member of the Swedish parliament, left her job and returned her party badge to volunteer in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion began.
Total population of Finland is 5.6 million, by the way.
Those 🇫🇮Finns who have completed their conscription service, “regardless of rank, [will have] to carry on as reservists until age 65.
Over a 5-year period, the change is projected to boost the number of reservists by around 125,000 members, bringing the total to approximately one million by 2031.”
Over a 5-year period, the change is projected to boost the number of reservists by around 125,000 members, bringing the total to approximately one million by 2031.”
Finland's Defence Committee supports increasing reservist numbers
The change would expand Finland's military reserve to around a million people by the year 2031.
yle.fi
November 27, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Total population of Finland is 5.6 million, by the way.
Those 🇫🇮Finns who have completed their conscription service, “regardless of rank, [will have] to carry on as reservists until age 65.
Over a 5-year period, the change is projected to boost the number of reservists by around 125,000 members, bringing the total to approximately one million by 2031.”
Over a 5-year period, the change is projected to boost the number of reservists by around 125,000 members, bringing the total to approximately one million by 2031.”
Finland's Defence Committee supports increasing reservist numbers
The change would expand Finland's military reserve to around a million people by the year 2031.
yle.fi
November 27, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Those 🇫🇮Finns who have completed their conscription service, “regardless of rank, [will have] to carry on as reservists until age 65.
Over a 5-year period, the change is projected to boost the number of reservists by around 125,000 members, bringing the total to approximately one million by 2031.”
Over a 5-year period, the change is projected to boost the number of reservists by around 125,000 members, bringing the total to approximately one million by 2031.”
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
#Finland ‘s parliamentary #defence committee has okayed raising the age limit of all FDF reservists to 65 years. This will increase the nominal reserve from about 900 000 to over one million men and women.
However, the main reason is to hold on to specialist skills for longer.
yle.fi/a/74-20196497
However, the main reason is to hold on to specialist skills for longer.
yle.fi/a/74-20196497
Puolustusvaliokunta kannattaa reserviläisiän nostamista
Muutosten myötä kaikki varusmiespalveluksen suorittaneet kuuluisivat jatkossa reserviin sotilasarvostaan riippumatta sen vuoden loppuun, jona he täyttävät 65 vuotta.
yle.fi
November 27, 2025 at 8:34 PM
#Finland ‘s parliamentary #defence committee has okayed raising the age limit of all FDF reservists to 65 years. This will increase the nominal reserve from about 900 000 to over one million men and women.
However, the main reason is to hold on to specialist skills for longer.
yle.fi/a/74-20196497
However, the main reason is to hold on to specialist skills for longer.
yle.fi/a/74-20196497
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
We were neutral when the Soviet Union invaded us.
We were invaded a couple of months after Poland was occupied by Germany and the Soviet Union.
Poland had allies.
Stalin gave the Red Army two weeks to march to Helsinki.
A puppet government was set up in Karelia, ready to take over. It never did.
We were invaded a couple of months after Poland was occupied by Germany and the Soviet Union.
Poland had allies.
Stalin gave the Red Army two weeks to march to Helsinki.
A puppet government was set up in Karelia, ready to take over. It never did.
November 27, 2025 at 8:33 PM
We were neutral when the Soviet Union invaded us.
We were invaded a couple of months after Poland was occupied by Germany and the Soviet Union.
Poland had allies.
Stalin gave the Red Army two weeks to march to Helsinki.
A puppet government was set up in Karelia, ready to take over. It never did.
We were invaded a couple of months after Poland was occupied by Germany and the Soviet Union.
Poland had allies.
Stalin gave the Red Army two weeks to march to Helsinki.
A puppet government was set up in Karelia, ready to take over. It never did.
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
⚡️ A 12-year-old girl wounded in Russia’s strike on Ternopil has died in the hospital.
Her death brings the toll to 35 people killed in the attack, including seven children.
🧵 1/3 ⬇️
Her death brings the toll to 35 people killed in the attack, including seven children.
🧵 1/3 ⬇️
November 27, 2025 at 9:05 PM
⚡️ A 12-year-old girl wounded in Russia’s strike on Ternopil has died in the hospital.
Her death brings the toll to 35 people killed in the attack, including seven children.
🧵 1/3 ⬇️
Her death brings the toll to 35 people killed in the attack, including seven children.
🧵 1/3 ⬇️
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
We can do stuff in Europe: a Lithuanian start-up (Astrolight) with funding from ESA, is building an Optical Ground Station with Denmark being project manager and it will serve much more than just NATO purposes.
Expect a lot more of this stuff after the big budget increase that ESA got today at CM25
Expect a lot more of this stuff after the big budget increase that ESA got today at CM25
⚡️“A new base being built by NATO countries in Greenland will use incredibly narrow laser beams to ensure fast & voluminous data download from satellites, as Western nations move to secure comms from disruption by adversaries such as 🇷🇺 Russia or 🇨🇳 China, the company behind the project told Newsweek.”
New NATO allies' Arctic laser base will counter Russia and China
A new laser base in Greenland will download data from satellites, as NATO seeks to protect communications from Russia and China.
www.newsweek.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:50 PM
We can do stuff in Europe: a Lithuanian start-up (Astrolight) with funding from ESA, is building an Optical Ground Station with Denmark being project manager and it will serve much more than just NATO purposes.
Expect a lot more of this stuff after the big budget increase that ESA got today at CM25
Expect a lot more of this stuff after the big budget increase that ESA got today at CM25
“The 🇩🇰Danish government has set up a “night watch” in the foreign ministry, not to keep out the wildlings and White Walkers like the Night’s Watch of Game of Thrones, but rather to monitor 🇺🇸Donald Trump’s pronouncements and movements while Copenhagen sleeps. The night watch starts at 5pm each day.”
Denmark sets up ‘night watch’ to monitor Trump after Greenland row
US president’s threat to seize territory prompts intelligence briefings reminiscent of Game of Thrones patrol
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:17 PM
“The 🇩🇰Danish government has set up a “night watch” in the foreign ministry, not to keep out the wildlings and White Walkers like the Night’s Watch of Game of Thrones, but rather to monitor 🇺🇸Donald Trump’s pronouncements and movements while Copenhagen sleeps. The night watch starts at 5pm each day.”
⚡️“A new base being built by NATO countries in Greenland will use incredibly narrow laser beams to ensure fast & voluminous data download from satellites, as Western nations move to secure comms from disruption by adversaries such as 🇷🇺 Russia or 🇨🇳 China, the company behind the project told Newsweek.”
New NATO allies' Arctic laser base will counter Russia and China
A new laser base in Greenland will download data from satellites, as NATO seeks to protect communications from Russia and China.
www.newsweek.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:52 PM
⚡️“A new base being built by NATO countries in Greenland will use incredibly narrow laser beams to ensure fast & voluminous data download from satellites, as Western nations move to secure comms from disruption by adversaries such as 🇷🇺 Russia or 🇨🇳 China, the company behind the project told Newsweek.”
Reposted by Sarah Kirchberger
#russiaiscollapsing AvtoVAZ switched to a 4-day work week from September 29, reusults YoY?
Tractors: -47%
Elevators: -35%
Internal combustion engines: -42%
Passenger cars: -47%
Buses: -25...-40%
There's shortage of all those items on the market
Data via @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social
Tractors: -47%
Elevators: -35%
Internal combustion engines: -42%
Passenger cars: -47%
Buses: -25...-40%
There's shortage of all those items on the market
Data via @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social
November 27, 2025 at 12:32 PM
#russiaiscollapsing AvtoVAZ switched to a 4-day work week from September 29, reusults YoY?
Tractors: -47%
Elevators: -35%
Internal combustion engines: -42%
Passenger cars: -47%
Buses: -25...-40%
There's shortage of all those items on the market
Data via @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social
Tractors: -47%
Elevators: -35%
Internal combustion engines: -42%
Passenger cars: -47%
Buses: -25...-40%
There's shortage of all those items on the market
Data via @evgen-istrebin.bsky.social