Hello Bluesky, it's been a while. In the time I've been away from here and Deutschland Dispatches, there's been some exciting developments. I've started a new job at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in London!

Please be sure to give their account a follow & stay tuned for updates! @fes-uk.bsky.social

Meine Lieblingssätze aus dem Koalitionsvertrag:

"Astronautische Weltraummissionen inspirieren die nächste Generation zu Höchstleistungen."

"Auch die Meere sehen wir als digitalen Chancenraum."

"Gesetze, Verordnungen und Regelungen, die nicht gemacht werden müssen, werden wir nicht machen."

As Olaf Scholz crosses his fingers & hopes he *loses* a confidence vote, read my recap of how 🇩🇪 got here, and a preview of the coming election

++: Two big dev'ts in 🇩🇪 and 🇦🇹 energy supply, including a big moment for Gazprom's continuing presence in Europe.
ryanwalshaw.substack.com/p/germany-se...

Shortly before the fall of the Ampel govt, I sat down with Stefanie Middendorf, Prof of Contemporary History at Jena, for a fascinating chat about emergency, memory and consensus, trying to trace the long roots of 🇩🇪's omnicrisis

Read our convo in full here: ryanwalshaw.substack.com/p/state-of-e...

Negotiations on first British-German treaty on ice, future uncertain

🇩🇪 ambitions in chipmaking take another hit as Wolfspeed's $3bn project in the traditional industrial region of Saarland is thrown into jeopardy
Meanwhile Finance Minister Christian Lindner has been appealing to investors in NYC ahead of IMF meeting in Washington
open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

Find out why Germany's Mittelstand is so worried about UniCredit's takeover of Commerzbank + why it might endanger German ability to compete with China for overseas trade

+ Latest from Thuringia, where BSW is insisting on a commitment to 'peace' in coalition talks

open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

This is a very good article by @lukemcgee.bsky.social

Something he doesn’t say is that the far-left BSW in Germany (now being courted by the centre to form anti-AfD coalitions at state level) is also pro-Russian. (I know this thanks to @ryanwalshaw.bsky.social’s excellent German press summary)

New report shows how 🇩🇪 carmakers are suffering from inaction on EV transition. Losses in market shares in 🇺🇸, 🇪🇺 and 🇨🇳 to likes of Tesla, BYD

+ Intelligence chiefs warn B'tag of 🇷🇺 threat, demand greater powers to investigate financial ties, incl to "certain parties"
open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

Econ minister Habeck expected to deliver grim outlook in speech on Weds: 🇩🇪 now expected to end '24 0.2% in recession. He's apparently bullish about '25, tho this assumes a functioning govt(!)

+ Commerzbank's brand-new CEO gives a punchy i/v to Handelsblatt
ryanwalshaw.substack.com/p/habecks-gr...

Some reflections on Germany’s no-vote on European duties on Chinese EVs, that just passed.

Scholz is trying to signal détente to China and protect the interests of car multinationals.

In the long-run, Berlin may end up thanking the Commission and EU partners for avoiding a strategic blunder.

1/

Reports overnight that Scholz is considering a call to Moscow, as BSW plans to hold 'peace demo' in Berlin tmo

+ UAE oil firm's acquisition of Leverkusen-based chemical firm Covestro for €16bn leaves some wondering whether 🇩🇪 is entering an era of mass selloffs
open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

My latest post covers the FDP’s latest threat to the ‘traffic light’, growing speculation about a palace coup in the SPD, personnel changes at Nato, and a deep dive into the nasty impact conflict in the Middle East is having on Berlin’s club scene

ryanwalshaw.substack.com/p/fdp-threat...

Scholz seems to be suggesting that because Commerzbank is a major lender to the Mittelstand it would be dangerous to allow it to fall into ‘foreign’ hands— the Ver.di union has called for it to be classed as critical national infrastructure to stop the takeover!

Thanks for sharing, Iain!

From Brandenburg, to the banks:

I've written up a summary of Berlin's latest episode of impotent rage over 🇮🇹 bank UniCredit's attempted takeover of Commerzbank. Scholz's opposition, while it might make some domestic sense, is the definition of a lose-lose

open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

FDP declares 'autumn of decisions' and say they will make a decision on continued participation 'before Xmas'.

Feels like they now see few advantages to propping up the fed coalition after their drubbing on Sunday

+ BSW hold the cards in Brandenburg talks

open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

Absolutely: they’re chalk and cheese. But there was a not-insignificant CDU-BSW migration. Tho whatever the numbers say I’m not sure Radtke will gain much credit for suggesting greater emphasis on social security given many in the CDU believe benefits have reached unreasonable levels under Scholz

My writeup of the SPD's lucky escape in yday's election in Brandenburg and national press reaction

General impression: this is SPD state leader Woidke's win, def not Scholz's. Spiegel now openly calling for Scholz's replacement as leader by Boris Pistorius

ryanwalshaw.substack.com/p/woidkes-ga...

Also: if you’d like to hear more from me on this, I’m due to appear on the BBC World Service (!!!) at around 9.20 tomorrow morning to discuss the election and what it means for Germany. Please do tune in!

Read my preview of tomorrow’s high-stakes elections in Brandenburg
SPD have been the largest party here in *every election since reunification*. Now Dietmar Woidke, SPD governor for 11 years, has had to gamble his job in an effort to keep the AfD out of 1st place

open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

Today's post on the accusations of 'power politics' being levelled at both Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen, and the very entertaining reactions of those on the receiving end: Markus Söder and Thierry Breton.

open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...

*30bn

How revealing: Intel delays $30m project in Magdeburg, and all Germany's govt can talk about is what it means for the gap in the budget.

+ BREAKING NEWS: Spiegel says Friedrich Merz due to be named CDU/CSU candidate in under an hour's time as Söder steps back

open.substack.com/pub/ryanwals...