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pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social
Pennsylvania Maps
@pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social
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Maps of Pennsylvania with weird numbers of districts, and election analysis
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Mirror image of their run this time last year
PENNSYLVANIA is now the first state with multiple Democratic House members to have the majority of its House Democratic caucus cosponsor the Block the Bombs Act (Lee, Scanlon, Dean, and Evans)
www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...
www.congress.gov
*Taps the sign* Being good at data does not make one a good pundit
Not that they deserve primary blame, but Biden/Harris were the ones who framed the election as being about democracy, and I think that's contributed to how it's been interpreted after the fact
Consumer protection should be in the mix
I will not stand for ABWH slander on my timeline
Reenergizing for sure. What gives me pause is that his charisma is not easily replicable. But his campaign is a proof of concept regardless.
With 35% of precincts reporting, Krasner looks to be replicating his 2021 coalition powered by Black voters across the city plus white neighborhoods outside the Northeast
The last time Lancaster County elected a Democrat to the Pennsylvania Senate was in 1889, when John S. Hoover won a special election.

136 years later, James Malone joins the club.
With all precincts reporting, Democrat James Malone leads by 0.89%.

Keep in mind, SD-36 completely excludes the City of Lancaster. It's the once reliably-red suburbs, exurbs, and small towns that have flipped this district.
As of this post there were a few, now just 1 left.
I'm ready to call it: Democrat James Malone has FLIPPED SD-36.

It will be the first time in who knows how long that Lancaster County has elected a Democrat to the State Senate.
Solid batch for Dem. James Malone. 89/120 precincts in and he's beating his benchmarks by about 1% on average. Rep. Josh Parsons needs to do several points better the rest of the way to catch up.
With 68/120 precincts reporting in SD-36, Democrat James Malone is beating his benchmarks in 42 precincts, and Republican Josh Parsons is beating his in 26. My model says we're headed for a close race, with Malone having a slight edge at the moment.
Another way I'm looking at PA SD-36 results so far:

Dems lost this district by 12% in the 2023 Supreme Court race. In the 5% of precincts reporting election day votes so far, the Dem is overperforming that result by 15%.
6/120 precincts reporting election-day votes, and Democrat James Malone is beating his benchmarks in 5 of them.
No comment until we see e-day numbers
Today's special election in northern Lancaster County presents the tantalizing but longshot possibility that the R-friendly incumbentmander of Pennsylvania's senatorial map could fail. I'll be following along just in case this gets interesting.
Thank you for this recommendation (and belatedly for your recommendation of Rethinking Statehood in Palestine which I've since read cover to cover)
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Out of the three Harris district Republicans in Congress, one has clearly proven himself as the best (when it comes to overperforming), Brian Fitzpatrick in #PA01.

Despite Harris carrying his suburban Philly district, Fitzpatrick easily won re-election last year, winning by 13!
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Last year in #PA08, we saw Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright lose re-election to Republican Rob Bresnahan by about two points.

This NEPA district has been trending to the right in the Trump era and Trump winning this district by 8 was probably enough to cost Cartwright.
As a progressive I find this analysis compelling on the congressional district level. But after this Presidential election I wonder if putting together a winning national/electoral college coalition is just a categorically different task than winning a congressional race.