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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 5h

You are nothing but a fascist!

Reposted by Dr. James H. Gundlach

🌸 Ariesian 🌸 アリエシアン 🌸 @ariesian.bsky.social · 1d

Quick little #portfolioday bump- help me get on VGEN by liking a d reposting the original post quoted here! I need 25 likes (got it!) and 100 reports (so close)!

#art #sciart #birds #vgen #code #colorpencil #nature #petportraits

🌸 Ariesian 🌸 アリエシアン 🌸 @ariesian.bsky.social · 15d

Hey y'all, help me out here? I'm trying to get on #vgen, but to do so I need to get this post to 100 likes and at least 20 reposts. Would you be willing to share my art to help me?

My VGen Profile URL is: vgen.co/Ariesian

#colorpencil #art #sciart #birds #bigcats #nature #promotions

A tricolor heron stands in the shallows at sunset, a wing extended to shade the water while he hunts for his dinner. He has one leg up in the traditional 'water bird' stance. His feathers are blue, fading to purples and greys, with bright flashes of yellow underneath.

Color pencil on drafting film. 2025.

A black lab stares at the viewer, she has a blue collar on and deep, soulful brown eyes. Her name is Millie and I got to meet her when I delivered this commission. It was very good.

Color Pencil on Drafting Film, 2024.

A big ol' crow, with shades of blue and purple irridescence in his feathers. He's landed on a tree with little small sprigs of leaves coming off of it. This was a gift to my Brother and Sister-In-Law, at the birth of my niece, who's middle name is Morrigan.

Color Pencil on Drafting Film. 2024.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 1d

I just zoomed in on the picture, the top of the vertical shaft is shaped to fit the curve of the top rod so it has to be accessed by a separate screw. The only way I can think that it will be done is the screw is at to bottom, or top if you will, of the hole in the bottom of that vertical shaft

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 1d

I really can't tell from the picture, but does it look like to top of the poles are curved to fit the top bar? If so, there has to a smaller screw reachable through the hole for the screw that holds the bottom. If so, it might use a hex L wrench.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 1d

One more idea, can there be a small screw with it's head in the bottom of the hole that the other screw came out of?

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 1d

If you take long pliers and squeeze the rolls of tape to make the holes long and narrow, will they come off and go on?

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 2d

One problem is the life expectancy is so often used, it is often abused. For example Hawaii is the only state with a life expectancy longer than what the CIA reports as the United States Life Expectancy. Working with data is not always easy.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 2d

I would like to see this tested as a lie detector. Imagine Trump on this camera if it worked.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 3d

This is a complex graph that I will explain how to look at it in the text accompanying the graph. Click ALT to see more. 🧪💡☠️ #Sociology #Population #Think #News

The most likely response upon seeing this is "What the hell?". Each line of the same dots displays that years death rates as a percent of 1999. The middle dark blue diamonds is for the next year so it is very close to the 100% line in the middle of the graph.

The most important thing is look at the changes in the general pattern by age. First not that the vertical arrangement of the different lines of dots are the same for the age 0-16 and 65-84. If the United States had the same general changes for all ages like the rest of the economically developed countries that general pattern would have ran very consistently all the way across the graph. In the United States the young are primarily covered by private health insurance but in almost all the states have some back up socialized health care to provide care for our uninsured young. Then as we age into the middle aged, we have health care dominated by capitalist health insurance that has a highly varied prior approval requirement before health care is administered. Then the age group 55 through 64 provides optional Medicare coverage for many of the people in this group that are in serious need of health care that capitalist insurance does not adequately cover. Then for age 65+ Medicare and the private health insurance policy called Medicaid provides treatment.

In general the most consistent declining death rates are among the 65+ followed by the age 0-16 with a complex pattern of death rates that increase in different amount and different time periods in that messy middle of the graph. This pattern in death rate changes among our middle aged has several consequences:

One is that our CIA says people who live in 48 other countries live longer than we do even though we pay the most for health care.

A second is we pay more for health care than any other country. For example Canada pays a little over half as much as we do for health care and their life expectancy is 3.3 years longer.

Enough said.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 3d

The driving force is that the national Southern Baptist organization takes half of all the money donated by about 1.9 million members to the local churches every week. That plus profits from the fake health insurance they sell puts their political power right up next to the billionaires.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 4d

I took my first programming course when we only got to submit 15 programs with no more than 30 cards each during the semester. we got graded on our best ten. I had a solid B when I had three runs left and I tried to make the computer write a poem. The only people without problems are dead.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 4d

A while back I discovered that my computer was automatically saving all the scatter plots I had produced while trying to explain our uniquely unexplained death rates. I quit counting at 3,000. Back in the 1960's I was calculating regressions with calculators that worked when I pulled the lever.

Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 4d

At one point, I started with a collection. of 14 independent variables, running with several mixed sets of independent variables I let the X's compete for strength. The strongest after controlling for others is percent smoking the second, percent Southern Baptist. This is about improving the 2nd.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 4d

In trying to see what the effects of religious beliefs are on death rates, I have found indications that religious fundamentalism, especially Southern Baptist, are a major driver of high death rates. The problem is quality of data. See ALT for more. 🧪💡☠️ #Sociology #Demography #Think #News

Looking for measures of state percent Southern Baptist I found measures for the years 1980, 1990, 2020, 2010 and 2020 in:

https://www.usreligioncensus.org/index.php/reports_analyses

Given that in working with hard to get data I regularly look for data problems and when I found all these ten year apart measures correlated at .99 or higher, I concluded that this was a problem. I kept coming back to the problem and around 4:00 one morning I had time on my hand and decided to search the on line Yellow Pages. I ran a search for "Southern Baptist church" for each state and at the bottom of the first page of listing was the total number for the state search. One problem was that Texas, Florida and Georgia turned up with the number 3,000 which looks like the system's maxim number it will report. Alabama only hit 2,946.

I went ahead and recorded the number of each state and after running several years of data I kept finding the Yellow Pages count was more strongly related to the state age 20-64 death rates, the average r for the survey data was 0.60 and the average r for the Yellow Pages number was 0.77. The values of all 112 r's are displayed on the graph.

Given how well this graph of age 20-64 showed things, I went ahead and repeated it for ages 65-84.

Here I show the same 112 possible correlations for the same independent variables, the decade percent Southern Baptist and the 2025 Yellow Pages listing for Southern Baptist Churches. The relative distance between the two lines of dots are very similar in the degree of running together and relative distance and position between them. But this line of dots shows much more of an increase over time than the middle age graph.

Here the r's for the survey data increase from a -0.07 to 0.71 from 1966 to 2023 with an average of 0.38. The same numbers for the Yellow Pages data are an increase from 0.16 to 0.82 with an average of 0.57.

This tells me a few things. First, that the Southern Baptist churches have more substantially increased their elder's relying on prayer for health care than their middle aged. Second, the Yellow Pages measure is consistently a better measure, and cheaper, than the survey data. Third, I need to see how these relationships hold up controlling for other variables, especially the only other variable that I have found is stronger than percent Southern Baptist, percent who smoke cigarettes.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 4d

I am afraid not. I use the CIA World Fact Book to get basic life expectancy and I go to Canada's web sites to get their data. Almost all the health care in industrialized countries are highly socialized.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 4d

Here I compare the percent changes in single year age deaths rates from 1999 to 2019, the last year before COVID, for non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks as well as Hispanics of all races. Click ALT to see more: 🧪💡☠️ #Sociology #Population #Auburn #Think #News

I think this graph shows some of the most unique in the United States changes in death rates. I usually include the data used to create graphs but that is not possible here with as much data I used to produce this graph.

The graph starts with a lot of scattered dots showing little racial and ethnic differences among the young. The health care for the young in the United States is primarily covered by capitalist health insurance but almost all the states have socialist health care for the uninsured young. Much of the differences in the height of the dots among the young is due to the random effects showing up in data with small n's. But in general, our young experienced fairly consistent declines. Even the high Hispanic dot at age 6 is for a one percent decline.

The worst part of our unique death rates hist in young adulthood. Our middle aged health care is dominated by capitalist health insurance. The United States is unique in the economically developed world in that we allow the capitalist health insurance to delay care as they decide if they will cover particular health care. This practice was put in place after software was developed that allowed the health insurance industry to predict who they would lose money on based on early adult health problems. Those upward slopes in the three lines of dots are produced by some of the people being uninsured and the health insurance industry denying care. The main thing this graph shows is that this increase in death rates in the private health insurance covered population is strongest in the most insured group, non-Hispanic Whites.

The last part of the graph shows that Medicare coverage produces the best protection against unnecessary early deaths, We simply wait for people to get too old for civilized health care to have a life expectancy among the longest.

I will end repeating my most repeated line. Canada has a life expectancy that is 3.3 years longer than we in the United States does.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

Ah, air pollution is heavier in areas with more Blacks and Hispanics!

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

My parent-less mother and her two brothers lived on a farm when WWII started. Instead of one of them claiming draft exemption they sold the farm to a rich non-farming guy. One of my uncles died in the war.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

It is interesting to compare individual level data with aggregate level data. Aggregate data shows stronger relationship than individual data. I think this is because a lot of the anti-vaccine idiots lie in surveys.

Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

People without empathy are the draft dodgers, Trump is a classical example.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

Empathy is a human trait that is not universal but contributes to the survival of all. If it did not exist, people would not be willing to die for their country or their loved ones. Populations run without empathy are what do not survive. Our Republican voting states people die earlier.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

I will conduct an exploratory analysis to see where I can find the shift in differences. One difference is this is the first detailed analysis of the 2023 data, Changes are taking place but I haven\t figured them out yet.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

I am afraid I did not discover this pattern in the data until a couple of hours before I posted it. In general the mixed party and Republican voting states have higher death rates for two main reasons. 1st high % Southern Baptist who use prayer for health care. 2nd health insurance denies care.

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 6d

Here is a detailed single year of age by political party graph that I have put together in an attempt to make differences in death rates understandable. Click alt to see more: 🧪💡☠️ #Sociology #Population #Think #News

This graph compares the single year age death rates in the Mixed Party and Republican voting states with same statistic in Democratic voting states. The last dot, for age group 85+ is essentially equal because nobody out lives the + sign.

The graph starts with the very young in Mixed Party states a little above 130. That means those death rates are a little over 30% higher than the same age death rates in Democratic voting states. Both lines become more level for almost twenty years before moving down together until about age 40. From there the Republican voting states average about 108%, 8% higher says the same thing, of Democratic voting states while the mixed party states average close to 105%.

Now the standard measure of death rates is life expectancy, the age by which half the people die. I find life expectancy a hard to understand measure communicating to anyone without a degree in demography when describing death rates. Here are the 2023 life expediencies for the three groups: Democratic voting states is 77.9 and the other two are the same at 76.5. That simply does not tell me much about the differences. The fact that the two lines of dots showing different death rates in mixed party and Republican voting states have the. same life expectancy shows that the don't measure everything.

Here are the state abbreviations for the three groups:
Dem Mix Rep
CA AZ AL
CO GA AK
CT IA AR
DE MI FL
DC MN ID
HI NH IN
IL NC KS
ME OH KY
MD PA LA
MA TX MS
NV WI MO
NJ MI MT
NM NE
NY ND
OR OK
RI SC
VT SD
TN
UT
WV
WY

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Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim.bsky.social · 7d

This graph presents the total deaths rates of states from 1999 through 2023 for states grouped by the party they voted for. See text for more information: 🧪💡☠️ #Sociology #Population #News #Think

This graph shows that Republican voting states consistently has had higher death rates than mixed party states which have consistently had higher death rates than the Democratic voting States from 1999 through 2023. This pattern is so stable that the only noticeable difference is for the first and second years of the COVID epidemic. The Democratic voting states being higher is primarily due to COVID hitting the east and west coast states, among which Democrats make up a very high percent, where COVID hit first. The pattern reverses the second year because when COVID vaccine became. available Democrats were much more likely to get vaccinated during the first year. The slower to learn and less scientific findings accepting non-Democrats were less likely to accept vaccinations and as a result they experienced an increase in death rates in 2021 while the Democratic voting states experienced a decline.

Out of the little more than 200 graphs I have posed here, I think this one is the simplest and easiest to read. What I don't have is data to show is how much better the Democratic voters in the Republican voting states did than their mixed party and Republican voting neighbors.

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