Mike Geruso
@mikegeruso.bsky.social
260 followers 97 following 19 posts
Author of After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People (afterthespike.com); Former Council of Economic Advisers; UT-Austin professor of economics (mikegeruso.com)
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"The question for historians, sociologists, and demographers is whether replacement level fertility is compatible with modern values of individuality, choice, and control, and if so, how." I hope more academics will take up this question, rather than assuming the answer must be "no."
"Even if fertility rates drop as fast as projected, the top of the population spike will be in about 2080. We will only get back down to our current population in about 2150. One way or another, we need accelerated, human-created solutions to climate change."
"Spears and Geruso persuasively argue that a big reduction in world population will not actually solve the problems many of us imagine they will solve... Too many commentators are hoping that a shrinking population will naturally put less pressure on the environment."
Reposted by Mike Geruso
Last night I had the pleasure of interviewing @mikegeruso.bsky.social at a Zoom event about his phenomenal book, AFTER THE SPIKE: POPULATION, PROGRESS, AND THE CASE FOR PEOPLE (a.co/d/if8wE7u). This is a thread on my key takeaways from the conversation 🧵
My piece today in Briefing Book: "The Economic Case for Higher Birth Rates Is Bigger than You Think"

The fiscal challenges of an aging population matter, but the innovation and progress that could be lost in a shrinking world matter even more.
Very much looking forward to this conversation with Katy!
I’m hosting a Zoom chat with @mikegeruso.bsky.social ‬⁩on Wednesday, 9/17 from 8-9 PM ET about his fantastic new book AFTER THE SPIKE. I hope you’ll join us! Register at www.bit.ly/GerusoFANWebinar for this FAN‬⁩ event.
Reposted by Mike Geruso
A new paper by Vincent Rollet at MIT replicates Li's 2022 finding that new construction reduces rents within a 500-foot radius in NYC vrollet.github.io/files/city_s...
Hannah: "After the Spike … explores all of these population issues in more detail. As is quite rare for a book looking at birth choices and reproductive decisions, it’s compassionate rather than preachy or pushy… a very good anchor to inform and open up these conversations."
New substack by ‪@hannahritchie.bsky.social‬ explaining why population decline isn’t a bright spot in our climate future. “Large demographic changes happen over longer timescales than we have to get emissions down.” She reviews findings from our recent NBER working paper. Links in the thread:
Reposted by Mike Geruso
🎉📚 Exciting news!

My new book — Clearing the Air — will be published in the UK in September.

50 of the most common questions I get about how we tackle climate change. 50 short, data-driven answers.

www.penguin.co.uk/books/462676...
Another is we’re looking, in part, at India—which ends up being meaningfully different.
One difference is that Phil and Melissa are looking, in part, at cohort fertility at ages when women haven’t yet completed their fertility. They are previewing a likely future of completed fertility. We’re restricting to cohort parity at age 40. So the past.
Reposted by Mike Geruso
I really enjoyed this. Separate from how you feel about population, I repeatedly had assumptions overturned by their really deep stats. Maybe my favorite pop sci read during the last year.

This is one of those "most of your intuitions are wrong" books.
So excited that this will be out in the world tomorrow! And grateful to everyone who helped make it happen.
So excited that this will be out in the world tomorrow! And grateful to everyone who helped make it happen.
Reposted by Mike Geruso
Good article (based on their forthcoming book!) by my former CEA colleague @mikegeruso.bsky.social

The Population Bust Won’t Solve the Climate Crisis www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/o...
Opinion | Depopulation Is Coming. Don’t Expect It to Solve Our Problems.
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Mike Geruso
Mike Johnson spent the wknd talking up his Medicaid cuts

Once, Medicaid cuts might have been an easy sell to Rs

Today, it’s tougher

New in @briefingbook.bsky.social w @mikegeruso.bsky.social and Daniel Posthumus on the rise of Medicaid in red districts

🧵 👇

www.briefingbook.info/p/cutting-me...
Cutting Medicaid Is A Risky Move for Republicans
Medicaid has grown by 8.46 million or 32% in Red Districts Since 2013
www.briefingbook.info
The idea you could cut almost a trillion dollars from Medicaid without affecting benefits is… really something.
Reposted by Mike Geruso
Researchers, have you applied to the #NIHCMAwards?

There is only one week left to submit an application. Submit today to be recognized for your excellence in health care research.

Deadline: March 28, 2025
Prize: $20,000
Apply now: bit.ly/3ieivm3

@asacarny.bsky.social @mikegeruso.bsky.social
31st Annual NIHCM Awards; Now taking entries for the 2025 NIHCM Awards for excellence in health care research; Deadline: March 28, 2025; NIHCM.org
Reposted by Mike Geruso
Thrilled that this is now 75 miles from my doorstep. Vaccines are a miracle of modern medicine and turning our back on them is madness.
Possible measles exposures happened at various locations in San Antonio on Saturday, Feb. 15, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services.
Breaking News: Possible measles exposures in San Antonio
www.tpr.org
Tim Layton and I talk Medicare Advantage upcoding with Derek.
The DOJ has just opened an investigation in wasteful billing practices, including diagnostic upcoding, at UnitedHealth's Medicare Advantage program.

What's upcoding? When does makes a medical billing practice fraudulent?

All answered on this week's ep —>

open.spotify.com/episode/1lTP...
The Trump-Musk Doctrine: F-ck Around and Find Out
Plain English with Derek Thompson · Episode
open.spotify.com