Not my goat 😭😭😭
In between things I've been checking in on the emails that mention "university" and uhh did we all know about this connection?
![Screenshot from the Epstein Document Search which reads: House_Oversight_029401
From: Donald Rubin
Sent: 1/22/2017 7:31:32 PM
To: jeffrey E. [jeeyacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Republican health care experts dismiss Donald Trump's ideas
Importance: High
https://www.statnews.com/20 1 6/03/04/trump -repub cans-health-care/? s camp aign=trendmd
Jeffrey,
This cannot be true, can it? This guy must be as dumb about this stuff as a tampon laced with arsenic!!
HELP!
Great meeting yesterday — really enjoyed it.
And happy birthday again, Don
Donald B. Rubin
John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics
Department of Statistics, Harvard University
1 Oxford Street
Cambridge MA 02138
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 029401](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ozma3timm5c32fa7bimb4zaj/bafkreiezajc6f2rgwxrdx2242izbelpumkgdruc52pzu236rhovlcyfmde@jpeg)
November 13, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Not my goat 😭😭😭
The CJCS who was purged in the first month is out on podcasts now talking about his vision for a defense industrial enterprise and refusing to discuss the purge. Coming to think our military leadership might not be prepared for the current moment.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-co...
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-co...
November 7, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The CJCS who was purged in the first month is out on podcasts now talking about his vision for a defense industrial enterprise and refusing to discuss the purge. Coming to think our military leadership might not be prepared for the current moment.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-co...
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-co...
I’m very tired of admin officials resigning quietly. If you’re not going to be a vocal critic of the admin then resigning is not just ineffective, it’s actively helping them. They get to replace you with a loyalist and avoid any political cost. You’re just relieving yourself of a moral burden.
"One current and one former U.S. official, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Admiral Holsey had raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats" near Venezuela
Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down, Officials Say
www.nytimes.com
October 17, 2025 at 2:21 AM
I’m very tired of admin officials resigning quietly. If you’re not going to be a vocal critic of the admin then resigning is not just ineffective, it’s actively helping them. They get to replace you with a loyalist and avoid any political cost. You’re just relieving yourself of a moral burden.
If you’re gonna use this framing you also need to publish “Trumps fails to deliver on his promise to lock up Hillary Clinton”
September 26, 2025 at 6:54 PM
If you’re gonna use this framing you also need to publish “Trumps fails to deliver on his promise to lock up Hillary Clinton”
I’m losing my fucking mind here
September 26, 2025 at 6:47 PM
I’m losing my fucking mind here
The disincentive against politicizing the DOJ was always political, not legal. Trump v US had all sorts of terrible ramifications but this isn’t one of them
They’re literally giving prosecutors the names of people and organizations, and telling them to go find crimes. It’s clear from the NYT that the directive came from Trump.
This is a direct consequence of Roberts explicitly immunizing weaponization of DOJ in Trump v. US.
This is a direct consequence of Roberts explicitly immunizing weaponization of DOJ in Trump v. US.
We’ve created a system in which there’s no disincentive stopping a shameless, power mad administration from doing this. At worst, they get struck down in court and they get to ruin a lot of people in the process. But civil, criminal liability for this sort of abuse of power are nonstarters.
September 25, 2025 at 9:18 PM
The disincentive against politicizing the DOJ was always political, not legal. Trump v US had all sorts of terrible ramifications but this isn’t one of them
Reposted by Matt Malis
Breaking: Texas A&M University President Mark A. Welsh III will resign after more than a week of turmoil sparked by a viral video of a student confronting a professor over gender content in a children’s literature course.
Texas A&M President Mark A. Welsh III to resign after a week of turmoil over viral classroom video
Calls for Welsh’s ousting intensified over his handling of a student’s complaints about gender identity discussions in a children’s literature class.
www.texastribune.org
September 18, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Breaking: Texas A&M University President Mark A. Welsh III will resign after more than a week of turmoil sparked by a viral video of a student confronting a professor over gender content in a children’s literature course.
Feel free to get in touch with any questions (and definitely if you notice any errors!)
July 24, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Feel free to get in touch with any questions (and definitely if you notice any errors!)
I've posted my PhD level Quant I slides, in case they're useful for anyone else:
www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/ysvgl...
The material follows texts by Aronow & Miller, Hansen, and @mattblackwell.bsky.social, covering basic probability through OLS, with a brief intro to causal inference
#polisky
www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/ysvgl...
The material follows texts by Aronow & Miller, Hansen, and @mattblackwell.bsky.social, covering basic probability through OLS, with a brief intro to causal inference
#polisky
July 24, 2025 at 8:39 PM
I've posted my PhD level Quant I slides, in case they're useful for anyone else:
www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/ysvgl...
The material follows texts by Aronow & Miller, Hansen, and @mattblackwell.bsky.social, covering basic probability through OLS, with a brief intro to causal inference
#polisky
www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/ysvgl...
The material follows texts by Aronow & Miller, Hansen, and @mattblackwell.bsky.social, covering basic probability through OLS, with a brief intro to causal inference
#polisky
Here's an overview of the paper's findings.
We're planning to release the Key Officers dataset soon, so keep an eye out for that, and feel free to get in touch if you have any questions about it.
We're planning to release the Key Officers dataset soon, so keep an eye out for that, and feel free to get in touch if you have any questions about it.
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Here's an overview of the paper's findings.
We're planning to release the Key Officers dataset soon, so keep an eye out for that, and feel free to get in touch if you have any questions about it.
We're planning to release the Key Officers dataset soon, so keep an eye out for that, and feel free to get in touch if you have any questions about it.
Another finding: there seems to be an implicit "quota" system in effect, preventing multiple women from serving in leadership roles in the same embassy.
(As one female FSO describes: "I have never heard anyone complain about too many men in the embassy.")
(As one female FSO describes: "I have never heard anyone complain about too many men in the embassy.")
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Another finding: there seems to be an implicit "quota" system in effect, preventing multiple women from serving in leadership roles in the same embassy.
(As one female FSO describes: "I have never heard anyone complain about too many men in the embassy.")
(As one female FSO describes: "I have never heard anyone complain about too many men in the embassy.")
We also find, at all levels, women are assigned to smaller and less important posts.
We find no relationship between host-country gender equality conditions and the gender distribution of US diplomats assigned there.
We find no relationship between host-country gender equality conditions and the gender distribution of US diplomats assigned there.
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
We also find, at all levels, women are assigned to smaller and less important posts.
We find no relationship between host-country gender equality conditions and the gender distribution of US diplomats assigned there.
We find no relationship between host-country gender equality conditions and the gender distribution of US diplomats assigned there.
Women face a large disadvantage in promotion to the low-visibility DCM position, but not the higher-visibility CG. Then, among DCMs, women are more likely to reach ambassador (high viz), but no more likely to reach DAS (low viz).
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Women face a large disadvantage in promotion to the low-visibility DCM position, but not the higher-visibility CG. Then, among DCMs, women are more likely to reach ambassador (high viz), but no more likely to reach DAS (low viz).
But our data allow us to look more closely at individual appointment decisions, focusing on 1997-2017.
We compare appointments to two pairs of positions that are equal in status, but differ in visibility: Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) vs. CG, and Ambassador vs. Deputy Assistant Secretary (DAS)
We compare appointments to two pairs of positions that are equal in status, but differ in visibility: Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) vs. CG, and Ambassador vs. Deputy Assistant Secretary (DAS)
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
But our data allow us to look more closely at individual appointment decisions, focusing on 1997-2017.
We compare appointments to two pairs of positions that are equal in status, but differ in visibility: Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) vs. CG, and Ambassador vs. Deputy Assistant Secretary (DAS)
We compare appointments to two pairs of positions that are equal in status, but differ in visibility: Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) vs. CG, and Ambassador vs. Deputy Assistant Secretary (DAS)
Top-line finding: women face substantial penalties in promotion into the middle and upper ranks, but only in low-visibility positions.
Looking only at representation in the aggregate, things seem to be trending in a positive direction:
Looking only at representation in the aggregate, things seem to be trending in a positive direction:
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Top-line finding: women face substantial penalties in promotion into the middle and upper ranks, but only in low-visibility positions.
Looking only at representation in the aggregate, things seem to be trending in a positive direction:
Looking only at representation in the aggregate, things seem to be trending in a positive direction:
New working paper!
with @calvin-thrall.bsky.social and David Lindsey, we collect the largest existing dataset on diplomatic personnel, and use it to analyze gender disparities in U.S. Foreign Service assignments
draft here: mattmalis.github.io/files/pdf/LM...
🧵 below
with @calvin-thrall.bsky.social and David Lindsey, we collect the largest existing dataset on diplomatic personnel, and use it to analyze gender disparities in U.S. Foreign Service assignments
draft here: mattmalis.github.io/files/pdf/LM...
🧵 below
June 17, 2025 at 3:07 PM
New working paper!
with @calvin-thrall.bsky.social and David Lindsey, we collect the largest existing dataset on diplomatic personnel, and use it to analyze gender disparities in U.S. Foreign Service assignments
draft here: mattmalis.github.io/files/pdf/LM...
🧵 below
with @calvin-thrall.bsky.social and David Lindsey, we collect the largest existing dataset on diplomatic personnel, and use it to analyze gender disparities in U.S. Foreign Service assignments
draft here: mattmalis.github.io/files/pdf/LM...
🧵 below
Just curious, could you say a bit more? I can see simulations revealing e.g. you’re underpowered or you’re using the wrong SEs, but not obvious to me what sort of “mistake” you would make in the analysis that you wouldn’t also make when simulating the analysis
June 4, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Just curious, could you say a bit more? I can see simulations revealing e.g. you’re underpowered or you’re using the wrong SEs, but not obvious to me what sort of “mistake” you would make in the analysis that you wouldn’t also make when simulating the analysis
bluesky is a funny name for the most depressing fucking place on the internet
June 1, 2025 at 2:42 PM
bluesky is a funny name for the most depressing fucking place on the internet
If the causal chain is X -> Y -> Z, then a regression of Z on X while conditioning on Y is problematic because of collider bias / conditioning on a post-treatment variable. Lots of relevant cites, eg onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
May 29, 2025 at 7:34 PM
If the causal chain is X -> Y -> Z, then a regression of Z on X while conditioning on Y is problematic because of collider bias / conditioning on a post-treatment variable. Lots of relevant cites, eg onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
so proud to live in a country where no one serves more than two months in prison for an op-ed 🥲
BREAKING: Rumeysa OZTURK must be released from detention, a federal judge ruled Friday, describing her incarceration as an egregious First Amendment violation that could chill the speech of millions.
May 9, 2025 at 5:47 PM
so proud to live in a country where no one serves more than two months in prison for an op-ed 🥲
It’s hilarious and sort of endearing watching this grown man, whose full time job is just thinking and talking ideas, come to a profound realization about rights and civil liberties that most of us arrived at sometime in high school
Joe Rogan explains to his audience why due process is important and quotes Ben Franklin — "it is better 100 guilty persons should escape than that one innocent person should suffer.”
He argues against shipping people to a prison in El Salvador without trial because we think they’re gang members.
He argues against shipping people to a prison in El Salvador without trial because we think they’re gang members.
April 21, 2025 at 12:34 AM
It’s hilarious and sort of endearing watching this grown man, whose full time job is just thinking and talking ideas, come to a profound realization about rights and civil liberties that most of us arrived at sometime in high school
Glad to see that the what Gorka said in the clip is not quite as bad as @meidastouch.com describes. Exaggerating the danger people face for just speaking out about these issues is good social media fodder but it is counterproductive to mounting an effective opposition.
JUST IN: Deputy Assistant to the President and "Counterterrorism Czar" Sebastian Gorka says anyone advocating for due process for Kilmar Abrego Garcia could be viewed as "aiding and abetting a terrorist" and be federally charged. (h/t Philip Germain)
April 17, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Glad to see that the what Gorka said in the clip is not quite as bad as @meidastouch.com describes. Exaggerating the danger people face for just speaking out about these issues is good social media fodder but it is counterproductive to mounting an effective opposition.
Has anyone collected and published data from the president’s daily diaries? Seems like something a lot of Americanists would be interested in but I can’t find anything on it…
#polisky
#polisky
January 30, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Has anyone collected and published data from the president’s daily diaries? Seems like something a lot of Americanists would be interested in but I can’t find anything on it…
#polisky
#polisky
But have you considered that this creates disadvantages for certain groups of scholars (people who like to p-hack)
December 5, 2024 at 4:46 AM
But have you considered that this creates disadvantages for certain groups of scholars (people who like to p-hack)
If “doesn’t” means “doesn’t and never will again”, then sure, I guess, but it seems like any meaningful concept of a “norm” has to entail expectations that survive despite short-term deviations
If the other side doesn't follow the norm, it's not a norm. That is like the DEFINITION of a norm
December 3, 2024 at 5:10 AM
If “doesn’t” means “doesn’t and never will again”, then sure, I guess, but it seems like any meaningful concept of a “norm” has to entail expectations that survive despite short-term deviations