leoskyview.bsky.social
@leoskyview.bsky.social
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1\ I asked what the trend in Russian:Ukraine KIA ratio would look like if major open source databases + the new Frontelligence assessment were correct. They imply under 1:1 at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but about 5.3:1 in late 2024.

groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
Andrew Perpetua: "Ukraine investigating corruption is why we support Ukraine. Russia making fun of [that] is why Russia is the enemy...the most black and white, clear cut war you will ever witness. Never have you seen...where one side is so obviously evil and the other is so obviously innocent".
November 28, 2025 at 6:03 PM
I'll up my match: $5k total by 30th Nov. Donate below to get life saving engineering kit to Ukrainians & I'll match you.

Respond with screenshot proof or put "Leo diggers" as PayPal comment.

Post below for link and see how lifesaving this is. Tax deductible US registered charity.
Yesterday 15,000$ was fundraised for the excavators and trucks for Ukraine, a solid result. But we still are 64,000$ short. please consider donating and liking this message. (today's goal is to raise 8000$ and reach 64,000$)

donation link: www.paypal.com/donate?campa...

A small delivery video⤵️
November 27, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Poteru has confirmed 160k Russian war dead by name.

Not all have public proof of death, so real number is higher. Poteru don't count Ukrainians or others that Russia forced to their deaths. They can also take months-years to confirm.

👉2022=15k
👉2023=32k
👉2024=50k
👉2025=63k + more to come.
November 27, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Russia borrowing after 2025-11-26 auction+AP

Total proceeds in 2025 (roubles):
Borrowed = ~6488bn
Goal = ~6981bn

Auctions left = 4
Amount needed = ~493bn
Needed per week = ~123bn
Proceeds this week = ~128bn

Now on course to fund the planned budget deficit. The deficit might be bigger than planned
Russia borrowing after 2025-11-09 auction+AP

Total proceeds in 2025:
Borrowed = ~6357bn
Goal = ~6981bn

Auctions left = 5
Amount needed = ~624bn
Needed per week = ~104bn
Proceeds this week = ~124bn

Early Nov auction was huge (and expensive), it put them on target.
Russia borrowing after 2025-10-19 auction+AP.

Total proceeds in 2025:

Total borrowed = ~4468bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn

Auctions left = 7
Amount needed = ~2513bn
Needed per week = ~359bn
Proceeds this week = ~185bn

Yields ~15.3%, vs ~15.1% last week.
November 26, 2025 at 5:49 PM
1\ Russia's bond placement & revenue/proceeds goals don't quite fit.

They say they aim to sell ~880bn rub more in "face value" for proceeds of ~620bn rub, just over 70% of the face value. Recent results were over 90%.

880bn placed should net ~800bn rub, i.e. ~180bn above alleged plan.
Here is an update on where they are in relation to their goals.

NOTE: Their goals may be inadequate. We don’t know yet if they will actually need more money before the end of the year.
November 26, 2025 at 5:41 PM
1\ Is this Russian repo normal? I looked quickly ay 2005-2018 results to avoid COVID and Russia's latest unprovoked invasion.

👉 This is much bigger than in the 07/08 financial crisis. ~0.26tr was biggest I saw.
👉 There were bigger repos after Russia invaded Crimea and sanctions kicked in.
Here are the results of today’s Russian Central Bank 7 day Repo Auction

2.85 trillion rubles allotted

With bids received for 4.51 trillion rubles

Weighted average rate

👉 16.5174%

www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...
November 25, 2025 at 4:52 PM
1\ Scenarios for Russia's reported year-to-date (YTD) deficit after November.

Tl;dr if the deficit is bigger than 3.8-3.9tr rub then they're off course and would need need bigger changes in December to achieve their budget.

If it's at or below 3.8-3.9tr rub they achieved their goals in November.
November 24, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Reposted
One thing that is not getting enough attention is that Trump has normalized the idea of the United States supporting the transfer of territory and millions of people from a democracy to a dictatorship.
The ending of freedom for millions is now the official US position.
November 24, 2025 at 3:27 PM
I will match up to $2.5k for engineering kit for Ukraine below by 30th Nov.

Reply here with proof, or put "leo diggers" in Paypal donation comment and I will double your impact.

Read Constantine's thread for amazing stories. One digger's emplacements saves dozens of lives and $10 millions of kit.
Hello everyone, friends, followers, and supporters of Ukraine

I'm starting a new fundraiser for $120,000 to help Ukraine with engineering equipment, heavy trucks with cranes, and excavators

Please watch the video and read to understand why this matters

donation link www.paypal.com/donate?campa...
Engineering Equipment for Ukraine
Help Liberty Ukraine Foundation reach their goal by donating or sharing with your friends.
www.paypal.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Looks like: huge concessions to Russia in the European plan, but also it stops Russian victory since it greatly reduces the chance of Russia invading again.

More like a peace plan vs the Republican-Russian war pause plan.
The Telegraph published a 24-point European counter-plan proposing ceasefire at current lines, NATO-style US security guarantees for Ukraine, return of abducted children and prisoners, Ukrainian control of Zaporizhzhia plant and Kakhovka dam, plus reconstruction funded by frozen Russian assets.
November 23, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Reposted
Of course not. Because TACO.
For the 1000th time, how to deal with Trump: Show strength. Shape events. Make him react to your move rather than jumping like a scared rabbit whenever he says something nuts.
Europe’s consistent failure to do so only encourages more American madness.
November 23, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Reposted
Hi All, just released my free weekend update. Its fascinating who backed the Trump-Putin 28 point plan, and what it means about the US government being a mouthpiece for Russia. Plus, you cannot back Trump and Ukraine--if you back Trump, you can only have one master open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #160: The US Becomes A Mouthpiece To Pass On Putin's Demands
Vance To The Fore; The 28 Points—Is It More Interesting Who Backed Them?
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 1:35 PM
1\ A while ago, Prune talked about Russia having a special savings account for refilling their National Wealth Fund.

Interpretation is for later but here are some numbers for people to play with and reference later.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Reposted
A new video from @CovertCabal and @Jonpy99 about Russia pulling a lot of old tanks from storage

www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ft...
Russia Has Began a MASSIVE withdraw of ancient T-72 Ural and A variant tanks
YouTube video by Covert Cabal
www.youtube.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Russia's daily expenses so far in Nov vs last year.

- 2024 Nov = 105m rub/day
- 2025 Nov 1-20th = 89m rub/day

Over 15% cuts vs 2024 - helping their budget.

Daily expenses are "lumpy", & there can be big end-of-month payments. Upcoming bond payments will also add 3-4m/day to the average.
The electronic budget system shows a 5.82 trillion ruble deficit as of 20 November 2025
November 22, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Reposted
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2

There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
November 21, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Reposted
We need to stop calling it a ‘peace plan,’ even with sarcastic quotes around it. Call it the US-Kremlin plan or similar.
‘US-Kremlin plan’ shames the US and makes it sound deeply unappealing to the broader US and European publics.
November 21, 2025 at 9:18 PM
1\ Why are the Republicans and Russia trying to force Ukraine to surrender now?

There's a chance it's because Russia knows it cannot finance the war much longer.

The Republicans & Russians could be pushing hard to lock in odds of Ukraine's future extermination before Russia's failure is obvious.
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Phillips saw this coming because he spends less time trying to believe what politicians say, and more time watching what they do.

If you don't want to be constantly falling for lies and getting screwed over, it's a good approach IMO.
Latest piece out in @theatlantic.com . Trump's "peace" plan for Ukraine, which he at this very moment trying to force on the country with threats and intimidation, is grotesque. The US president is admitting what too many refused to admit, he wants Putin to win. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump’s Devastating Plan for Ukraine
The White House is giving Putin permission to try again.
www.theatlantic.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Donation match up to $2.5k by 30th Nov to registered charity for equipment for Ukraine to dig life-saving protection. Constantine explains how effective this aid is here:
bsky.app/profile/teoy...

Respond below or DM proof, or put "leo" in paypal message. I'll match total donations after 30th...
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.

Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.

Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
November 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.

Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.

Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
November 21, 2025 at 4:55 AM
The details of the Republican-Russian surrender plan for Ukraine look designed to divert Russia's financial path away from catastrophe.

My first guess is that this would save Russian finances and set them up to prepare for their next European invasion. Depending on what happens.
The full leaked text of the proposed US-Russia agreement on Ukraine (translated from Russian):
November 21, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Almost 300 Russian war obituaries being found per day by Poteru.

1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.

Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
November 20, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Reposted
Folks! You have managed to gather 75% of a needed sum (3000/4000$). My team and I are very thankful that you find time and efforts to continue supporting us.

And I ask you to do one more step to close our needs. It will help our drone operators to protect themselves.
It happens rarely nowadays — to find and strike Russian tanks and IFVs. But we managed to🔥

Nights became longer and our team needs your help to be able to see Russian infantry — 2 thermal imaging.

They are costly: 4000$

PP: [email protected]

WFP: secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
November 20, 2025 at 3:32 PM
1\ Russia's daily spending so far in Nov is much lower than the final for Nov 2024.

👉Nov 2024 = 105m rub/day
👉1st-14th Nov 2025 = 89m rub/day

Those are the sorts of cuts they need to hit budget goals, but daily spending is variable.

Bond payments + end-of-month spending could push it back up.
The electronic budget system shows a 5.39 trillion ruble deficit as of 14 November 2025
November 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM