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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes
@jacobstokes.bsky.social
1.2K followers 560 following 96 posts

Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Previously White House & U.S. Congress. China, East Asian security, US foreign policy. Views mine.

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Source: Wikipedia
Law 41%
Political science 31%
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 18
My newest CNAS report: Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses

I identify 3 lenses through which to view how Beijing makes decisions related to nukes: leadership, weapons systems & military organizations, & official policies & doctrine.

www.cnas.org/publications...
Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making
China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons.
www.cnas.org
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Aug 6
One of the key questions of the new nuclear age is how big China's nuclear arsenal will ultimately grow. I game out potential endpoints in a new piece. www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/0...
How big will China’s nuclear arsenal get?
No one knows, but we can game out potential endpoints of Beijing’s buildup.
www.defenseone.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Jun 6
"The most dangerous occupation in Washington these days is being an expert."

A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...
It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington
www.nytimes.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Jun 5
"it was not clear why the information about the DF-5, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was made public." www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
Chinese state media releases key details about DF-5 nuclear weapons
Rare disclosure may signal that the country has ‘far more powerful capabilities it has not shown the world’, according to one analyst.
www.scmp.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · May 21
I'm delighted to share my newest @cnas.bsky.social report:

Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire

It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency
A contingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment.
www.cnas.org
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · May 6
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August apnews.com/article/russ...
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August
The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.
apnews.com

Reposted by Stokes

lilipike.bsky.social
Lili Pike @lilipike.bsky.social · May 5
“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs, especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,”
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.
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Reposted by Stokes

senatepress.bsky.social
Senate Press Gallery @senatepress.bsky.social · Apr 29
By a vote of 67 to 29, the #Senate confirmed David Perdue to be the Ambassador to the People's Republic of China.

Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.

Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.
Home - U.S. Senate Daily Press
Senate ScheduleThe Senate began a series of two votes at 11:29 a.m. There are two votes at 2:15 p.m. and further votes expected. Senate Hearings & Meetings
dailypress.senate.gov
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 25
Schrödinger's leaders call between Trump and Xi. Apparently, it happened and didn't happen simultaneously. www.ft.com/content/0192...
Donald Trump claims to have received call from Xi Jinping and to have cut ‘200 deals’ on trade
Beijing says there are no active talks and Washington should ‘stop creating confusion’
www.ft.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 24
"Mr. Trump is the latest commander in chief to arrive at the White House with an eye toward China, only to be diverted." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/o...
Opinion | Pete Hegseth Blunders Into His Forever War (Gift Article)
The operation in Yemen has sent the Trump administration into an exorbitant, potentially escalatory spiral.
www.nytimes.com
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shashj.bsky.social
Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Apr 16
"To help negotiators work out how...Xi Jinping, might react to a scenario...an AI alter ego, dubbed “Xibot”, is being developed...His team has produced three such AI “advisers” that reason in the distinct styles of George Patton, Genghis Khan and Sun Tzu." www.economist.com/science-and-...
AI models could help negotiators secure peace deals
Some are being developed to help end the war in Ukraine
www.economist.com
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Reposted by Stokes

cnas.bsky.social
The Center for a New American Security @cnas.bsky.social · Apr 16
NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.

www.cnas.org/press/press-...
CNAS Launches New National Security Human Capital Program to Safeguard America’s Warfighting Edge
Military personnel, political appointees, and civil servants meet the demands of the National Security Strategy by providing the nation with the…
www.cnas.org
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 16
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China www.axios.com/2025/04/16/t...
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China
"What the f**k is Elon doing there? Make sure he doesn't go," Trump said.
www.axios.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 13
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance

Extensively reported Reuters piece.

www.reuters.com/markets/how-...
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance
The combative approach marked a hard turn for Beijing, which had tried to avoid a spiraling trade war.
www.reuters.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 10
In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Exclusive | In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks
A senior Chinese official linked intrusions to escalating U.S. support for Taiwan.
www.wsj.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 9
Not huge numbers, but still interesting and symbolically meaningful (if confirmed).

kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...
Over 160 Chinese nationals fight for Russia, obtained documents show
The documents, obtained by the Kyiv Independent, list the names, personal data, brigades, and ranks of Chinese nationals fighting for Russia.
kyivindependent.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 7
I was pleased to share some thoughts with @afpfr.bsky.social on how Trump's tariffs will shape broader US-China relations and Beijing's approach to the rest of the world. www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Trump tariffs offer opportunity for China
In unleashing global tariffs, President Donald Trump has vowed to remake the world to benefit US workers. One beneficiary could be the country he sees as the primary adversary -- China.
www.france24.com
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Reposted by Stokes

jfallows.bsky.social
James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · Apr 3
For some other time: issues where people, including me, have disagreed w Larry Summers.

For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...
Quote about universities standing up. "Each act of capitulation makes the next one more likely." Op-ed text about Harvard and other rich institutions. "If they do not or cannot resist the arbitrary application of government power, who else can?" Op-ed saying that the resources of rich universities are not there just to be admired.
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 3
"Sources said those fired include Brian Walsh, senior director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, another senior director."

Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...
Trump National Security Council staffers purged, U.S. officials say
One source said the firings come after Laura Loomer presented President Trump with opposition research on NSC staffers she views as neoconservatives or not sufficiently loyal to him.
www.cbsnews.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Apr 3
"the source familiar said they were 'being labeled as an anti-neocon move.'"

www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...
Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit
A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"
www.axios.com

Reposted by Stokes

nickkodama.bsky.social
Nick Kodama 🌲👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · Mar 31
If we're looking at the big picture, Abe embracing the US as much as he did is more of an exception than the norm. It's always been about hedging.
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Reposted by Stokes

fbermingham.bsky.social
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Mar 31
The US has sanctioned a handful of police, national security and government figures in Hong Kong, for actions that "threaten to further erode the autonomy of Hong Kong"

www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...
U.S. Sanctions Six Individuals for Undermining Hong Kong’s Autonomy - United States Department of State
Beijing and Hong Kong officials have used Hong Kong national security laws extraterritorially to intimidate, silence, and harass 19 pro-democracy activists who were forced to flee overseas, including ...
www.state.gov
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 28
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China
Four Taiwanese soldiers have been jailed for passing information to China in a case that analysts say shows the extent of Beijing’s infiltration of Taipei.
www.washingtonpost.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 26
"A review committee said the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence and another company, the Beijing Innovation Wisdom Technology Co. were judged to have developed large AI models and advanced computer chips for military purposes." apnews.com/article/chin...
US adds Chinese tech firms to its export control list, says they sought US knowhow for military use
The U.S. has added dozens of companies to its export control, including more than 50 based in China that it says sought advanced knowhow in supercomputing, artificial intelligence and quantum technolo...
apnews.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 26
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China www.propublica.org/article/elon...
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China
As a U.S. military contractor, SpaceX sees allowing Chinese ownership as fraught. But it will allow the investment if it comes through secrecy hubs like the Cayman Islands, court records say. “It is c...
www.propublica.org
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 25
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community:

"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."

www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
www.dni.gov
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 25
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secretsandlaws.bsky.social
Secrets and Laws @secretsandlaws.bsky.social · Mar 24
One under-appreciated feature of classified government computer networks is that you never accidentally add a reporter to the email thread.
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Reposted by Stokes

secretsandlaws.bsky.social
Secrets and Laws @secretsandlaws.bsky.social · Mar 24
One under-appreciated feature of classified government computer networks is that you never accidentally add a reporter to the email thread.
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 24
Pentagon changed course for Musk visit after report about him viewing China war plans: Officials abcnews.go.com/Politics/tru...
Pentagon changed course for Musk visit after report about him viewing China war plans: Officials
A U.S. official had told ABC News that Musk was expected to attend a meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff that, among its topics, would touch on China.
abcnews.go.com
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jacobstokes.bsky.social
Jacob Stokes @jacobstokes.bsky.social · Mar 17
Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit the US in ‘not too distant future’ www.ft.com/content/a0f0...
Donald Trump says China’s Xi Jinping to visit the US in ‘not too distant future’
Hint at future summit comes amid escalating trade conflict between Washington and Beijing
www.ft.com
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