Gust23
@gust2319.bsky.social
Hello! I like talking about politics on the internet.
While there is a limit of how much one opinion poll can say, this is probably the most staggering Danish poll I have seen in a long time.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
November 28, 2025 at 11:37 AM
While there is a limit of how much one opinion poll can say, this is probably the most staggering Danish poll I have seen in a long time.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
The Danish People's Party (O) wins the position of mayor in Slagelse Municipality after the other right-wing parties ended up offering the position during the negotiations.
November 23, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The Danish People's Party (O) wins the position of mayor in Slagelse Municipality after the other right-wing parties ended up offering the position during the negotiations.
Did two maps of the 2025 Danish municipal (left) and regional (right) elections by polling area.
November 23, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Did two maps of the 2025 Danish municipal (left) and regional (right) elections by polling area.
DR did a cool election map of the Region Østdanmark election, showing the approximate place of residence of each elected councilor. Shows how having an at-large election in a single massive constituency does not mean you can't have a decent geographic representation of places.
November 20, 2025 at 9:04 PM
DR did a cool election map of the Region Østdanmark election, showing the approximate place of residence of each elected councilor. Shows how having an at-large election in a single massive constituency does not mean you can't have a decent geographic representation of places.
Here's the website I made with results/projections of the Danish municipal elections. I wasn't able to get it public last night since I was busy with other things, but check it out if you are interested in viewing the results and seat calculations.
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
Danish municipal election projection
politiskeprognoser.github.io
November 19, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Here's the website I made with results/projections of the Danish municipal elections. I wasn't able to get it public last night since I was busy with other things, but check it out if you are interested in viewing the results and seat calculations.
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
In Middelfart Municipality, where it looked like the Social Democrats (A) would keep onto their mayor, one of their candidates has just defected to Venstre (V) the day after the municipal election. She is now aiming to become mayor for that party, having tipped the majority.
November 19, 2025 at 5:09 PM
In Middelfart Municipality, where it looked like the Social Democrats (A) would keep onto their mayor, one of their candidates has just defected to Venstre (V) the day after the municipal election. She is now aiming to become mayor for that party, having tipped the majority.
I have thought about how to summarize the Danish municipal elections, and the best way of putting it is this: It is a bloodbath for the Social Democrats. Declining in the national vote share and losing MANY mayors. The responsibility will ultimately fall onto Frederiksen.
November 19, 2025 at 6:00 AM
I have thought about how to summarize the Danish municipal elections, and the best way of putting it is this: It is a bloodbath for the Social Democrats. Declining in the national vote share and losing MANY mayors. The responsibility will ultimately fall onto Frederiksen.
Did a map showing the party winning the position of mayor in each Danish municipality. Darker colors indicate it's a flip. Result is to be determined for the ones colored in gray.
November 19, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Did a map showing the party winning the position of mayor in each Danish municipality. Darker colors indicate it's a flip. Result is to be determined for the ones colored in gray.
In the municipality of Copenhagen, in what is quite a notable development, all parties except the Social Democrats (A) and Independent Greens (Q) are negotiating.
November 19, 2025 at 2:02 AM
In the municipality of Copenhagen, in what is quite a notable development, all parties except the Social Democrats (A) and Independent Greens (Q) are negotiating.
In Copenhagen it seems that AFÅ will NOT get a majority of seats. 33.6% counted.
November 18, 2025 at 11:32 PM
In Copenhagen it seems that AFÅ will NOT get a majority of seats. 33.6% counted.
Maybe the most insane result in Køge Municipality. Wtf this is a crushing blow. There was a red bloc majority before today.
November 18, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Maybe the most insane result in Køge Municipality. Wtf this is a crushing blow. There was a red bloc majority before today.
This is a wild result and a bloodbath for the Social Democrats.
November 18, 2025 at 10:40 PM
This is a wild result and a bloodbath for the Social Democrats.
Here is an initial projection of the Copenhagen municipal election with 1 polling place and 1% of votes reported.
November 18, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Here is an initial projection of the Copenhagen municipal election with 1 polling place and 1% of votes reported.
Here's a projection of the municipal elections at the national level
November 18, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Here's a projection of the municipal elections at the national level
Turnout so far in the Danish municipal election:
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
November 18, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Turnout so far in the Danish municipal election:
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
Today Danish voters are voting across the entire country in the municipal and regional elections. It will be a quite consequential election that will set the tone for the parliamentary election coming up in 2026. Here is how it works and what to watch out for. 🧵
November 18, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Today Danish voters are voting across the entire country in the municipal and regional elections. It will be a quite consequential election that will set the tone for the parliamentary election coming up in 2026. Here is how it works and what to watch out for. 🧵
Here is a map of the probability that the incumbent party in each municipality in Denmark keeps the position of mayor after the 18 November election, according to betting odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
November 2, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Here is a map of the probability that the incumbent party in each municipality in Denmark keeps the position of mayor after the 18 November election, according to betting odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
I have been following the Dutch election, and it basically will come down to the very last reported votes, what majorities are possible. D66 is very close a 27th seat, which would make D66-VVD-CDA-JA21 just exactly have a majority of 76 seats.
October 30, 2025 at 12:59 PM
I have been following the Dutch election, and it basically will come down to the very last reported votes, what majorities are possible. D66 is very close a 27th seat, which would make D66-VVD-CDA-JA21 just exactly have a majority of 76 seats.
The Danish pollster Epinion just did a massive poll for the municipal election with more than 100,000 respondents. Here's a map showing what party, according to the poll, would get a plurality of the vote in each municipality and region.
October 22, 2025 at 6:40 AM
The Danish pollster Epinion just did a massive poll for the municipal election with more than 100,000 respondents. Here's a map showing what party, according to the poll, would get a plurality of the vote in each municipality and region.
Here is the one image that explains why Mette Frederiksen is currently in a lot of trouble. She is currently set to lose the left-wing parliamentary majority, which could threaten her position of Prime Minister after the next election.
October 20, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Here is the one image that explains why Mette Frederiksen is currently in a lot of trouble. She is currently set to lose the left-wing parliamentary majority, which could threaten her position of Prime Minister after the next election.
Here's the overview of the number of candidate lists and number of candidates corresponding to each party letter at the Danish municipal election. Parties with national ballot access (A, B, C, etc.) are uniquely assigned its corresponding letter. The remaining are not reserved.
October 7, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Here's the overview of the number of candidate lists and number of candidates corresponding to each party letter at the Danish municipal election. Parties with national ballot access (A, B, C, etc.) are uniquely assigned its corresponding letter. The remaining are not reserved.
I was asked about the rise of the Danish People's Party (O) in a DM, and thought I would share my response as to why the party is gaining in the polls.
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
October 7, 2025 at 12:15 PM
I was asked about the rise of the Danish People's Party (O) in a DM, and thought I would share my response as to why the party is gaining in the polls.
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
Now that the deadline has just passed, Danish municipalities are starting to release the candidate lists and electoral alliances.
You can view it all on valg.dk
You can view it all on valg.dk
October 6, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Now that the deadline has just passed, Danish municipalities are starting to release the candidate lists and electoral alliances.
You can view it all on valg.dk
You can view it all on valg.dk
Here are the electoral alliances announced for the municipal election in Copenhagen. It is one of the most high profile ones in years because its outcome is open.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
October 5, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Here are the electoral alliances announced for the municipal election in Copenhagen. It is one of the most high profile ones in years because its outcome is open.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
By the way, if anyone thinks PPDA is pro-European, go check out its facebook profile. It has posts saying that the Sandu government is "Sorosist" and supported by globalists.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
September 28, 2025 at 8:18 PM
By the way, if anyone thinks PPDA is pro-European, go check out its facebook profile. It has posts saying that the Sandu government is "Sorosist" and supported by globalists.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.