George Hasanakos
georgehasanakos.bsky.social
George Hasanakos
@georgehasanakos.bsky.social
92 followers 55 following 49 posts
Polling and elections commentator. Director of Research at DemosAU. Follow for election and polling analysis.
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Exactly. This why I only include parties that have track record of running in every seat in lower house polls. "Any other candidate" isn't perfect, but its best of the available options prior to close of nominations IMO.
FF at 5% while ON does well may not be so crazy. ON doesn't really play in the religious right space. While NSW had the CDP for decades which won 3-6% of the upper house vote and they aren't around anymore, so FF may be able to fill the void.
I am open minded on this possibility.
Still, we are in a moment where One Nation is shooting up. Essential today has them at 16% nationally (once undec are excluded), Redbridge had them on 14% a few weeks ago. 8-10% swing. A 9% swing in the upper house to them isn't so fanciful.
The people who don't really want to dwell on politics may be more likely to see elections as a binary major party choice. But this is a theory on my part.
I don't think its an issue with the sampling, because the lower house result is credible IMO.

In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.
Our SA state poll in conjunction with Ace Strategies is out today with a headline TPP of 66-34 Labor.

We also have Upper House VI, Issue questions and personal ratings.

Full report: demosau.com/wp-content/u...
demosau.com
Our poll of Green held Brisbane, Griffith & Ryan shows a tight contest for the 3 seats that will have a big impact on the election result.

PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)

n: 1087

mode: internet panel

date: 7-15 Apr 25

Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...

#auspol
The Battle for Inner Brisbane - DemosAU
A new poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats points to a series of close contests, with a moderate swing towards Labor at the expense of the minor party and the
demosau.com
My comments on why the personality of leaders is important to voters but not the driving force.

"What is driving voters’ intentions is habits of a lifetime, the state of the economy, how well things are going for them, where they come from." #auspol

www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/que...
Politics is a popularity contest, but is it a personality hire?
Politicians aren’t known for their warmth and rizz, but surely character traits have some sway on voting habits.
www.brisbanetimes.com.au
State Politics Poll (Change vs 2023 state election)

TPP: ALP 54 (-0.3) L/NP 46 (+0.3)

PV: L/NP 34 (-1.4) ALP 33 (-4.0) Grn 14 (+4.3) Oth 19 (+1.1)

Preferred Premier: Minns 42 Speakman 24

NSW going in right direction: Yes 38 No 43

#auspol #nswpol
Federal Politics Poll - NSW (Change vs 2022 fed election)

TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)

PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)

Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38

Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52
Our NSW poll has a 2.4% TPP swing for the Fed L/NP.

State Labor is in decent position thanks to Minns and Greens absorbing vote losses

Federal TPP: L/NP 51-49

State TPP: ALP 54-46

Date: 24-26 Mar n: 1013

Full report and methodology statement here: demosau.com/news/nsw-pol...

#auspol #nswpol
NSW Poll: Coalition has Edge Over Labor in Federal Contest
The Liberal National Coalition holds an 51% to 49% lead over Federal Labor, according to DemosAU's latest NSW Poll.
demosau.com
The full Trustwatch report is at this link: demosau.com/wp-content/u...
6. High Court (27%)
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.
Which public institutions are trusted the highest to the lowest in Australia?

1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol
Federal Politics Poll - Vic (Change vs 2022 fed election)

TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)

PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)

Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37

Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55

#auspol #vicpol
State Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: L/NP 52 (+7) ALP 48 (-7)

PV: L/NP 39 (+4.5) ALP 25 (-11.7) Grn 15 (+3.5) Oth 21 (+3.7)

Preferred Premier: Battin 43 Allan 30

Victoria going in right direction: Yes 25 No 60

#auspol #vicpol
Our Vic poll provides hope for Fed Labor and the State Libs.

The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.

State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.

State TPP: L/NP 52-48

Federal TPP: ALP 51-49

Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006

More here: demosau.com/news/victori...

#auspol #vicpol
Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Fed Labor
DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring
demosau.com
Federal Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)

PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)

Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37

Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55
State Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: L/NP 52 (+7) ALP 48 (-7)

PV: L/NP 39 (+4.5) ALP 25 (-11.7) Grn 15 (+3.5) Oth 21 (+3.7)

Preferred Premier: Battin 43 Allan 30

Victoria going in right direction: Yes 25 No 60