Author | Lightnews

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

Exactly. This why I only include parties that have track record of running in every seat in lower house polls. "Any other candidate" isn't perfect, but its best of the available options prior to close of nominations IMO.

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

FF at 5% while ON does well may not be so crazy. ON doesn't really play in the religious right space. While NSW had the CDP for decades which won 3-6% of the upper house vote and they aren't around anymore, so FF may be able to fill the void.

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

I am open minded on this possibility.

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

Still, we are in a moment where One Nation is shooting up. Essential today has them at 16% nationally (once undec are excluded), Redbridge had them on 14% a few weeks ago. 8-10% swing. A 9% swing in the upper house to them isn't so fanciful.

2

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

The people who don't really want to dwell on politics may be more likely to see elections as a binary major party choice. But this is a theory on my part.

1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

I don't think its an issue with the sampling, because the lower house result is credible IMO.

In terms of the upper house, I think your theory does have some legs, but it may be more in terms of the sorts of people who don't care to be part of internet panels.

2 2

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 2d

Our NSW State Poll out today. VI, PP & Top Issue.

Primaries (change since last election)
ALP 37 (nc)
L/NP 30 (-5.4)
Grn 13 (+3.3)
Oth 20 (+2.1)

TPP: ALP 59-41 (+4.7 to ALP)

Our post here: demosau.com/news/labor-o...

Full report here: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

#auspol #nswpol

Labor opens up big lead in NSW poll - DemosAU

NSW Labor has jumped out to a large lead over the NSW Liberal National Coalition, leading 59 - 41 per cent on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis, according to

demosau.com

3

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 4d

Our Qld State Poll out today. VI, PP & issues.

Primaries (change since last election)
LNP 37 (-4.5)
ALP 29 (-3.6)
ON 14 (+6.0)
Grn 12 (+2.1)
Oth 8 (nc)

TPP: LNP 54-46 (+0.2 to LNP)

Our post here: demosau.com/news/lnp-mai...

Full report here: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

#auspol #qldpol

LNP maintains clear lead over Labor in Queensland – new poll - DemosAU

The Crisafulli Government maintains a clear lead over Labor in Queensland on the eve of its one year anniversary, leading 54-46% on a two-party preferred

demosau.com

1 1 1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · 10d

Our SA state poll in conjunction with Ace Strategies is out today with a headline TPP of 66-34 Labor.

We also have Upper House VI, Issue questions and personal ratings.

Full report: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

demosau.com

Reposted by George Hasanakos

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 10d

#DemosAU/Ace Strategies SA (state) ALP 47 Lib 21 Green 13 others 19
2PP 66-34 to ALP.

Follows a YouGov 67-33 in May.

Insane numbers. An Opposition that should be helped by federal drag is in danger of oblivion.

#saparli

www.indailysa.com.au/news/opinion...

Opinion: SA political poll tells tale of two parties with a crushing blow - News | InDaily, Inside South Australia

The team behind panini shop Aye Frank are bringing its little brother to Flinders Park, corner deli style with coffee, panini and pinball.

www.indailysa.com.au

7 18 51

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Apr 21

Our poll of Green held Brisbane, Griffith & Ryan shows a tight contest for the 3 seats that will have a big impact on the election result.

PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)

n: 1087

mode: internet panel

date: 7-15 Apr 25

Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...

#auspol

The Battle for Inner Brisbane - DemosAU

A new poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats points to a series of close contests, with a moderate swing towards Labor at the expense of the minor party and the

demosau.com

2 1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Apr 11

My comments on why the personality of leaders is important to voters but not the driving force.

"What is driving voters’ intentions is habits of a lifetime, the state of the economy, how well things are going for them, where they come from." #auspol

www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/que...

Politics is a popularity contest, but is it a personality hire?

Politicians aren’t known for their warmth and rizz, but surely character traits have some sway on voting habits.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Apr 1

State Politics Poll (Change vs 2023 state election)

TPP: ALP 54 (-0.3) L/NP 46 (+0.3)

PV: L/NP 34 (-1.4) ALP 33 (-4.0) Grn 14 (+4.3) Oth 19 (+1.1)

Preferred Premier: Minns 42 Speakman 24

NSW going in right direction: Yes 38 No 43

#auspol #nswpol

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Apr 1

Federal Politics Poll - NSW (Change vs 2022 fed election)

TPP: L/NP 51 (+2.4) ALP 49 (-2.4)

PV: L/NP 38 (+1.5) ALP 30 (-3.4) Grn 12 (+2.0) ONP 9 (+4.1) Oth 11 (-4.2)

Preferred PM: Albanese 39 Dutton 38

Australia going in right direction: Yes 31 No 52

1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Apr 1

Our NSW poll has a 2.4% TPP swing for the Fed L/NP.

State Labor is in decent position thanks to Minns and Greens absorbing vote losses

Federal TPP: L/NP 51-49

State TPP: ALP 54-46

Date: 24-26 Mar n: 1013

Full report and methodology statement here: demosau.com/news/nsw-pol...

#auspol #nswpol

NSW Poll: Coalition has Edge Over Labor in Federal Contest

The Liberal National Coalition holds an 51% to 49% lead over Federal Labor, according to DemosAU's latest NSW Poll.

demosau.com

1 1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 25

The full Trustwatch report is at this link: demosau.com/wp-content/u...

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 25

6. High Court (27%)
7. ABC (24%)
8. Reserve Bank of Australia (12%)
9. House of Representatives (8%)
10. Australian Senate (5%)
11. Australian Energy Market Operator (-8%)
12. The criminal justice system (-10%).
Source: DemosAU Trust Watch poll of 1,238 Australians.

1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 25

Which public institutions are trusted the highest to the lowest in Australia?

1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol

1 1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

Federal Politics Poll - Vic (Change vs 2022 fed election)

TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)

PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)

Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37

Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55

#auspol #vicpol

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

State Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: L/NP 52 (+7) ALP 48 (-7)

PV: L/NP 39 (+4.5) ALP 25 (-11.7) Grn 15 (+3.5) Oth 21 (+3.7)

Preferred Premier: Battin 43 Allan 30

Victoria going in right direction: Yes 25 No 60

#auspol #vicpol

1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

Our Vic poll provides hope for Fed Labor and the State Libs.

The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.

State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.

State TPP: L/NP 52-48

Federal TPP: ALP 51-49

Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006

More here: demosau.com/news/victori...

#auspol #vicpol

Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Fed Labor

DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring

demosau.com

1 2

Reposted by George Hasanakos

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

DemosAU Victoria Poll - Date: 17-21 March Sample: 1006

State TPP: L/NP 52 ALP 48

Federal TPP: ALP 51 L/NP 49

More details here: demosau.com/news/victori...

Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Fed Labor

DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring

demosau.com

1 6 5

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

Federal Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: ALP 51 (-3.8) L/NP 49 (+3.8)

PV: L/NP 34 (+0.9) ALP 29 (-3.9) Grn 15 (+1.2) ONP 8 (+4.2) Oth 14 (-2.5)

Preferred PM: Albanese 40 Dutton 37

Australia going in right direction: Yes 30 No 55

2

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

State Politics Poll (Change vs 2022 state election)

TPP: L/NP 52 (+7) ALP 48 (-7)

PV: L/NP 39 (+4.5) ALP 25 (-11.7) Grn 15 (+3.5) Oth 21 (+3.7)

Preferred Premier: Battin 43 Allan 30

Victoria going in right direction: Yes 25 No 60

1 1

George Hasanakos @georgehasanakos.bsky.social · Mar 24

DemosAU Victoria Poll - Date: 17-21 March Sample: 1006

State TPP: L/NP 52 ALP 48

Federal TPP: ALP 51 L/NP 49

More details here: demosau.com/news/victori...

Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Fed Labor

DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring

demosau.com

1 6 5