Geofutures
@geofutures.bsky.social
Foresight in geopolitics and social issues, with an eye on science fiction
@opentopography.org Seen in the wild, puzzling me --
December 12, 2025 at 7:59 PM
@opentopography.org Seen in the wild, puzzling me --
"The most likely medium-term outcome in the United States is neither entrenched authoritarianism nor a return to stable democracy. Rather, it is regime instability: a protracted struggle between authoritarian impulses and democratic solidarity." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Price of American Authoritarianism
What can reverse democratic decline?
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 12, 2025 at 3:28 PM
"The most likely medium-term outcome in the United States is neither entrenched authoritarianism nor a return to stable democracy. Rather, it is regime instability: a protracted struggle between authoritarian impulses and democratic solidarity." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Midnight Sky," which came out 5 years ago today.
December 11, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Midnight Sky," which came out 5 years ago today.
Fundraising email from the White House Historical Association:
"Thanks to the generosity of supporters like you, our team was able to complete detailed digital scanning and photography of the East Wing and Jacqueline Kennedy Garden prior to their demolition."
"Thanks to the generosity of supporters like you, our team was able to complete detailed digital scanning and photography of the East Wing and Jacqueline Kennedy Garden prior to their demolition."
December 10, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Fundraising email from the White House Historical Association:
"Thanks to the generosity of supporters like you, our team was able to complete detailed digital scanning and photography of the East Wing and Jacqueline Kennedy Garden prior to their demolition."
"Thanks to the generosity of supporters like you, our team was able to complete detailed digital scanning and photography of the East Wing and Jacqueline Kennedy Garden prior to their demolition."
"The danger here is not simply that the United States is behaving in illiberal ways, but that it exports and encourages the erosion of democracy and the rule of law—in short, that America’s dysfunction might be contagious." paxsims.wordpress.com/2025/12/09/g...
Gaming the American challenge after the NSS
Back in March, I wrote a deliberately provocative piece that suggested “wargaming must account for a new and unexpected “Red”: Donald Trump’s new United States of America.” With the rec…
paxsims.wordpress.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:26 PM
"The danger here is not simply that the United States is behaving in illiberal ways, but that it exports and encourages the erosion of democracy and the rule of law—in short, that America’s dysfunction might be contagious." paxsims.wordpress.com/2025/12/09/g...
"Marjorie Prime," now on Broadway, was also one of the best futurist films of 2017. Here's my microreview.
December 9, 2025 at 2:51 PM
"Marjorie Prime," now on Broadway, was also one of the best futurist films of 2017. Here's my microreview.
"This is a strategy that lacks the imagination to anticipate that other countries are already hedging against U.S. power and could well move to construct a post-American order that shields against U.S. influence." foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/08/t...
The Only War the White House Is Ready for Is Culture War
The new U.S. National Security Strategy is a moral and strategic disaster.
foreignpolicy.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:34 PM
"This is a strategy that lacks the imagination to anticipate that other countries are already hedging against U.S. power and could well move to construct a post-American order that shields against U.S. influence." foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/08/t...
"Every company scored D or F on existential safety measures — the ability to prevent loss of control over advanced AI systems." qz.com/ai-companies...
Major AI companies fail safety test for superintelligence
A sweeping safety review shows leading AI companies advancing toward superhuman systems without guardrails to stop catastrophic failure
qz.com
December 8, 2025 at 8:43 PM
"Every company scored D or F on existential safety measures — the ability to prevent loss of control over advanced AI systems." qz.com/ai-companies...
You can see the incoherence of the new Trump National Security Strategy in the W. Hemisphere section, given that the admin is:
-- Promoting worse government by enabling corruption and narco ties
-- Alienating most of the region, making cooperation w/ the US less desirable, China etc more so
-- Promoting worse government by enabling corruption and narco ties
-- Alienating most of the region, making cooperation w/ the US less desirable, China etc more so
December 8, 2025 at 7:32 PM
You can see the incoherence of the new Trump National Security Strategy in the W. Hemisphere section, given that the admin is:
-- Promoting worse government by enabling corruption and narco ties
-- Alienating most of the region, making cooperation w/ the US less desirable, China etc more so
-- Promoting worse government by enabling corruption and narco ties
-- Alienating most of the region, making cooperation w/ the US less desirable, China etc more so
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Superman II," which came out 45 years ago today, in 1980. It does not compare well even to the weak crop of films that year.
December 4, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Superman II," which came out 45 years ago today, in 1980. It does not compare well even to the weak crop of films that year.
"Widely available geothermal power could, by 2050, produce nearly triple the current output of the country’s nuclear power plants (which supply roughly 20% of America’s electricity at present)." #energy #future www.economist.com/interactive/...
Geothermal’s time has finally come
This source of energy could become bigger than nuclear
www.economist.com
December 3, 2025 at 6:24 PM
"Widely available geothermal power could, by 2050, produce nearly triple the current output of the country’s nuclear power plants (which supply roughly 20% of America’s electricity at present)." #energy #future www.economist.com/interactive/...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Tenth Victim," which came out 60 years ago today. Its plot of human hunting as spectacle foreshadowed ideas in The Running Man (a 1982 novel and then movies) and The Hunger Games.
December 3, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Tenth Victim," which came out 60 years ago today. Its plot of human hunting as spectacle foreshadowed ideas in The Running Man (a 1982 novel and then movies) and The Hunger Games.
These kind of universal accounts could be a step toward a lift-all-boats economy. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/b...
Michael and Susan Dell to Put $250 in 25 Million Children’s Accounts
www.nytimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 4:48 PM
These kind of universal accounts could be a step toward a lift-all-boats economy. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/b...
"We've offered 1,000 African families UBI if they live at the bottom of a well for one year!" www.rockefellerfoundation.org/news/beast-p...
Beast Philanthropy and Rockefeller Foundation Launch Strategic Partnership
GREENVILLE, NC; NEW YORK | November 24, 2025 — Beast Philanthropy, the charitable organization founded by Jimmy Donaldson, the world’s #1 creator known
www.rockefellerfoundation.org
December 2, 2025 at 3:21 PM
"We've offered 1,000 African families UBI if they live at the bottom of a well for one year!" www.rockefellerfoundation.org/news/beast-p...
"'This action would be nothing short of catastrophic and would destroy the credibility of the U.S. in the international community,' Mr. Vigil said" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/w...
Trump Announces Pardon for Honduran Ex-President Convicted in Drug Case
www.nytimes.com
December 1, 2025 at 4:59 PM
"'This action would be nothing short of catastrophic and would destroy the credibility of the U.S. in the international community,' Mr. Vigil said" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/w...
An astronomer and a skeptic bet $1,000 over whether the existence of advanced aliens will be confirmed in the next 5 years -- www.skeptic.com/article/harv...
Harvard Astronomer Takes Up Skeptic Publisher’s $1,000 Bet on Alien Disclosure by 2030
Skeptic magazine publisher and historian of science Dr. Michael Shermer has issued a $1000 bet that discovery or disclosure of alien visitation to Earth will not happen by December 31, 2030. Taking hi...
www.skeptic.com
December 1, 2025 at 3:19 PM
An astronomer and a skeptic bet $1,000 over whether the existence of advanced aliens will be confirmed in the next 5 years -- www.skeptic.com/article/harv...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Superintelligence," which came out 5 years ago today.
November 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Superintelligence," which came out 5 years ago today.
"AI-enabled power concentration would mean the political disempowerment of almost all humans. For the vast majority of people, this would mean having no meaningful say in decisions that shape their lives and futures." 80000hours.org/problem-prof...
Extreme power concentration
Advanced AI technology may enable its creators, or others who control it, to attempt and achieve unprecedented societal power grabs. Under certain circumstances, they could use these systems to take c...
80000hours.org
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
"AI-enabled power concentration would mean the political disempowerment of almost all humans. For the vast majority of people, this would mean having no meaningful say in decisions that shape their lives and futures." 80000hours.org/problem-prof...
"A majority of Americans (53%) now think artificial intelligence is likely to “destroy humanity” someday" www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Poll: Most Americans think AI will 'destroy humanity' someday
A new Yahoo/YouGov survey finds that real people are much more pessimistic about artificial intelligence — and its potential impact on their lives — than Silicon Valley and Wall Street.
www.yahoo.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:50 PM
"A majority of Americans (53%) now think artificial intelligence is likely to “destroy humanity” someday" www.yahoo.com/news/article...
"Emigration rises as countries approach around $5,000 in income per person, peaks at around $10,000 and declines thereafter." "Meanwhile 94% of sub-Saharan Africans—1.1bn people—live in countries with a GDP per person of less than $10,000." www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Emigration from Africa will change the world
As other countries age, they will need African youth
www.economist.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM
"Emigration rises as countries approach around $5,000 in income per person, peaks at around $10,000 and declines thereafter." "Meanwhile 94% of sub-Saharan Africans—1.1bn people—live in countries with a GDP per person of less than $10,000." www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Mockingjay II," which came out today in 2015. This Hunger Games sequel was another in the standout crop of 2015 futurist films.
November 20, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Mockingjay II," which came out today in 2015. This Hunger Games sequel was another in the standout crop of 2015 futurist films.
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Ghost in the Shell," which came out 30 years ago today, and is the best of 1995's futurist films, and one of the best of the decade.
November 18, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Ghost in the Shell," which came out 30 years ago today, and is the best of 1995's futurist films, and one of the best of the decade.
"China is helping governments not only combat crime, but also control their citizens and stay in power—and that is proving stunningly popular." www.economist.com/internationa...
China’s creepiest export surge
Countries are queuing to buy the tools and techniques of the CCP’s security state
www.economist.com
November 18, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"China is helping governments not only combat crime, but also control their citizens and stay in power—and that is proving stunningly popular." www.economist.com/internationa...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The 6th Day," which came out 25 years ago today. Even regular human cloning has (probably) not happened yet, much less this adult insta-cloning. But we do now have self-driving cars.
November 17, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The 6th Day," which came out 25 years ago today. Even regular human cloning has (probably) not happened yet, much less this adult insta-cloning. But we do now have self-driving cars.
"To understand the task before them, Democrats must trace how the terms “liberalism” and “conservatism” have diminished profoundly in their capacity to reflect the preferences, aspirations, and fears shaping the post-Great Recession electorate." www.liberalpatriot.com/p/liberalism...
Liberalism Failed to Stop the Trump Realignment. Is There A Way Back?
It is a common assumption of the Trump era that America is undergoing a turbulent and protracted political realignment that could reverberate for decades.
www.liberalpatriot.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:50 PM
"To understand the task before them, Democrats must trace how the terms “liberalism” and “conservatism” have diminished profoundly in their capacity to reflect the preferences, aspirations, and fears shaping the post-Great Recession electorate." www.liberalpatriot.com/p/liberalism...