Robert de Neufville
@deneufville.bsky.social
Superforecaster. Professional forecaster w/ Good Judgment, Metaculus, and The Swift Centre. I write Telling the Future (https://tellingthefuture.substack.com) and host Talking About the Future (https://tellingthefuture.substack.com/podcast).
Pinned
Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...
Can't decide if I'm proud or ashamed of this
December 6, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Can't decide if I'm proud or ashamed of this
Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...
Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...
I just got a letter from HMSA estimating that under current policy my monthly health insurance payments will go up 123% next year @hirono.senate.gov @schatz.bsky.social
Tomorrow, open enrollment will begin for health insurance through the ACA and millions of Americans will be priced out of the health coverage they need.
Reminder: Republicans chose this. Democrats will keep fighting against this.
Reminder: Republicans chose this. Democrats will keep fighting against this.
October 31, 2025 at 11:57 PM
I just got a letter from HMSA estimating that under current policy my monthly health insurance payments will go up 123% next year @hirono.senate.gov @schatz.bsky.social
Hannah Arendt’s description of the conditions that gave rise to totalitarianism sound a lot like the US today tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-t...
American Totalitarianism
Demagogues rise when the social order breaks down
tellingthefuture.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Hannah Arendt’s description of the conditions that gave rise to totalitarianism sound a lot like the US today tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-t...
Hell is empty and all the devils have received commuted sentences
October 19, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Hell is empty and all the devils have received commuted sentences
This will allow Qatar to reach US targets
Hegseth: I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho.
October 10, 2025 at 8:43 PM
This will allow Qatar to reach US targets
The latest ForecastBench results from @research-fri.bsky.social suggest that LLMs could be competitive with superforecasters in as soon as a year forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...
October 9, 2025 at 4:52 AM
The latest ForecastBench results from @research-fri.bsky.social suggest that LLMs could be competitive with superforecasters in as soon as a year forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...
This is just like how if you don't want to be robbed you have to opt out with everyone who might rob you
Exclusive: OpenAI is planning to release a new version of its Sora video generator, which creates videos featuring copyrighted material unless copyright holders opt out of having their work appear.
OpenAI’s New Sora Video Generator to Require Copyright Holders to Opt Out
Executives at the startup notified talent agencies and studios over the last week.
on.wsj.com
October 7, 2025 at 4:01 AM
This is just like how if you don't want to be robbed you have to opt out with everyone who might rob you
My thoughts on Charlie Kirk, Jimmy Kimmel, and the need to live with people with whom we disagree. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/we-must-no...
We Must Not Go Down This Road
Violence multiplies violence
tellingthefuture.substack.com
October 3, 2025 at 12:47 AM
My thoughts on Charlie Kirk, Jimmy Kimmel, and the need to live with people with whom we disagree. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/we-must-no...
I had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting.
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 12:08 AM
I had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting.
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
If I stop a video and scroll down from it, I obviously don't want it popping it up over the text of an article
September 25, 2025 at 11:53 PM
If I stop a video and scroll down from it, I obviously don't want it popping it up over the text of an article
Reposted by Robert de Neufville
🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 3:32 PM
🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
Once again I did not ascend into heaven today
September 24, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Once again I did not ascend into heaven today
What did Trump mean when he wrote that he and Epstein had done “a deed without a name”
September 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
What did Trump mean when he wrote that he and Epstein had done “a deed without a name”
Mike will have talked about his book with Steve Bannon, Michael Kosta, and me
Hey, tomorrow night I’ll be on your TV talking about WE ARE EATING THE EARTH. On the show that airs daily. @michaelkosta.bsky.social @thedailyshow.com @dpmeyer.bsky.social
September 10, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Mike will have talked about his book with Steve Bannon, Michael Kosta, and me
Reposted by Robert de Neufville
I will note that while Harvard's case was incredibly strong, they still quietly enacted many of the exact demands of the Trump administration such as limiting protests, eliminating DEI and supports for minority students, and targeting middle eastern studies curriculum.
bsky.app/profile/esqu...
bsky.app/profile/esqu...
Harvard is no longer committing to funding student affinity groups after closing the office space for the office of LGBTQ life and the Women's Center.
This university is run by craven cowards.
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
This university is run by craven cowards.
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
Harvard College To Remove Designated Spaces for Women’s Center, Office for BGLTQ Student Life | News | The Harvard Crimson
Harvard College will close the designated spaces that previously housed the Women’s Center and the Office for BGLTQ Student Life, following a July decision to shutter those offices — along with one fo...
www.thecrimson.com
September 3, 2025 at 8:44 PM
I will note that while Harvard's case was incredibly strong, they still quietly enacted many of the exact demands of the Trump administration such as limiting protests, eliminating DEI and supports for minority students, and targeting middle eastern studies curriculum.
bsky.app/profile/esqu...
bsky.app/profile/esqu...
Reposted by Robert de Neufville
JUST IN: Harvard won summary judgment against the Trump administration with the court finding that the admin violated Harvard's 1st amend. rights. The court has vacated the funding freeze orders and termination letters and issued a permanent injunction.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
![[cite_start]A screenshot of the first page of a court document from the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts[cite: 3]. [cite_start]The document is titled "MEMORANDUM AND ORDER" [cite: 43] [cite_start]and was filed on September 3, 2025[cite: 1].
The document lists two related civil actions:
* [cite_start]**Civil Action No. 25-cv-11048-ADB**: President and Fellows of Harvard College, et al., Plaintiffs, v. United States Department of Health and Human Services, et al., Defendants[cite: 4, 5, 14, 17, 21].
* [cite_start]**Civil Action No. 25-cv-10910-ADB**: American Association of University Professors - Harvard Chapter, et al., Plaintiffs, v. United States Department of Justice, et al., Defendants[cite: 22, 23, 24, 26, 27, 36].
[cite_start]The order is from Judge Burroughs, D.J.[cite: 44]. [cite_start]The text begins by identifying the plaintiffs in the consolidated cases[cite: 45].](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:sefgphqp2xqwh2hawaixykwz/bafkreiaefziiwcjq4laze5iymzn45j4qfm3lc226u27qrdhlxqxjixzxae@jpeg)
September 3, 2025 at 8:35 PM
JUST IN: Harvard won summary judgment against the Trump administration with the court finding that the admin violated Harvard's 1st amend. rights. The court has vacated the funding freeze orders and termination letters and issued a permanent injunction.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
This has gone too far www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/o...?
Opinion | We Ran the C.D.C.: Kennedy Is Endangering Every American’s Health
www.nytimes.com
September 1, 2025 at 10:01 PM
This has gone too far www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/o...?
I wish someone at Safeway would tell me what I should do if I have my club card
August 31, 2025 at 9:39 PM
I wish someone at Safeway would tell me what I should do if I have my club card
This is absolutely insane
Over 30 countries suspended or restricted shipments to US. Here's a list.
The pauses are in response to President Donald Trump's decision to end a trade agreement that for years allowed low-value packages to avoid duties.
www.usatoday.com
August 31, 2025 at 2:35 AM
This is absolutely insane
We're making AI in our own image. It's not always pretty.
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/through-ai...
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/through-ai...
Through AI, Darkly
We taught it language, now it knows how to curse
tellingthefuture.substack.com
August 30, 2025 at 12:34 AM
We're making AI in our own image. It's not always pretty.
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/through-ai...
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/through-ai...
"I didn’t really get it until I lay helpless on the floor of my apartment waiting for paramedics to arrive; I didn’t really feel it until I needed help to use a walker to shuffle across the neurology ward." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/reflection...
Reflections on Surviving Strokes
I never realized how much I love walking
tellingthefuture.substack.com
August 14, 2025 at 9:46 PM
"I didn’t really get it until I lay helpless on the floor of my apartment waiting for paramedics to arrive; I didn’t really feel it until I needed help to use a walker to shuffle across the neurology ward." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/reflection...
"Probabilistic forecasting is a challenge for AI because future events aren’t part of any training data; AI can’t memorize answers that are still unknown."
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/language-m...
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/language-m...
Language Models Still Can't Forecast
All my forecasts are hand produced by humans
tellingthefuture.substack.com
July 31, 2025 at 11:49 PM
"Probabilistic forecasting is a challenge for AI because future events aren’t part of any training data; AI can’t memorize answers that are still unknown."
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/language-m...
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/language-m...
Reposted by Robert de Neufville
This was, uh, memorable! I was on after MTG and before Alex Jones. Highlight was Bannon saying: "Man, Grunwald, everyone's gonna hate your book!"
I'm sure you're already listening to the Steve Bannon War Room, but if not please tune in, I'm on next!
July 17, 2025 at 3:36 PM
This was, uh, memorable! I was on after MTG and before Alex Jones. Highlight was Bannon saying: "Man, Grunwald, everyone's gonna hate your book!"