glanced at the first line of raw data from a just completed poll. this persons responses to favorability battery:
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
November 17, 2025 at 11:57 PM
glanced at the first line of raw data from a just completed poll. this persons responses to favorability battery:
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
trump - strong fav
zohran - strong fav
aoc - somewhat fav
stefanik - strong unfav
hochul - unfamiliar
for most pundits the greatest injustice possible is democrats exercising power
Underrated aspect of killing the filibuster is making pundit hacks at Cook Political p-p-p-piss their pants
November 8, 2025 at 8:44 PM
for most pundits the greatest injustice possible is democrats exercising power
Republicans got lucky in upstate ny, dems left a lot of wins on the table by not running candidates.
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
November 8, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Republicans got lucky in upstate ny, dems left a lot of wins on the table by not running candidates.
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
In Onondaga County dems won all 10 county leg seats they had candidates, but probably would have 13 or 14 out of 17 if they had contested every seat
king gizzard and the lizard wizard kinda night
November 5, 2025 at 12:39 AM
king gizzard and the lizard wizard kinda night
i cant just spend all my time eating chicken parm subs
November 4, 2025 at 1:15 AM
i cant just spend all my time eating chicken parm subs
just made a reputational bet that my models are right
November 1, 2025 at 9:04 PM
just made a reputational bet that my models are right
love the google cloud ai "correlation is causation" ads
October 29, 2025 at 12:59 AM
love the google cloud ai "correlation is causation" ads
should i get into oven fries?
October 3, 2025 at 10:39 PM
should i get into oven fries?
there may be some asymmetry to how voters view the parties in this q. i have 2022 down ballot polling in ny with a similar set of qs, and among voters who view both parties as too far in their respective directions dems lead the generic ballot 57-24
If you ask the people whether they think the Democrats or Republicans have moved too far to the left/right, roughly equal shares say yes about each party. It's simply not the case that the American people view Dems as too ideologically extreme compared to Reps www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...
September 29, 2025 at 6:04 PM
there may be some asymmetry to how voters view the parties in this q. i have 2022 down ballot polling in ny with a similar set of qs, and among voters who view both parties as too far in their respective directions dems lead the generic ballot 57-24
not a vest guy, but thanks for asking
September 23, 2025 at 3:43 AM
not a vest guy, but thanks for asking
there is a liberal pathology to always be negotiating against yourself
Let's check in with The Argument, the magazine pitched as a "group of left-leaning writers and journalists... arguing in favor of what liberalism is for, rather than just what it’s against."
Oh.
Oh.
September 16, 2025 at 11:21 PM
there is a liberal pathology to always be negotiating against yourself
am i too old to get really good at karate?
September 4, 2025 at 12:58 AM
am i too old to get really good at karate?
vance going jimmy conway?
August 31, 2025 at 8:27 PM
vance going jimmy conway?
nothing says "plan that is definitely going to work" more than outsourcing your volunteer operation to a superpac
"Centrist DSA" (my term for MainStream, a new volunteer canvassing operation created by the pro-Cuomo super PAC Fix the City) is launching tonight, per Politico.
(screenshot from Politico Playbook)
(screenshot from Politico Playbook)
August 20, 2025 at 10:40 PM
nothing says "plan that is definitely going to work" more than outsourcing your volunteer operation to a superpac
Slightly diminish a band: thankful dead
Slightly diminish a band: Pewter Zepplin
August 13, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Slightly diminish a band: thankful dead
[me doubling down]: i'd like to double down
August 12, 2025 at 1:41 AM
[me doubling down]: i'd like to double down
split ticket has done interesting work. however analyzing data to show what happened in past elections is not the same skill as using data to influence future elections. it can be especially dangerous from people who no actual experience on campaigns.
And we know the centrist consultants favored by D leadership say this b/c @elainegodfrey.bsky.social quoted one.
Swing voters say “Dems don’t fight.”
This consultant argues it’s not REALLY about fight, it’s abt something else!! That’s hooey. But the leadership likes it: it supports the status quo.
Swing voters say “Dems don’t fight.”
This consultant argues it’s not REALLY about fight, it’s abt something else!! That’s hooey. But the leadership likes it: it supports the status quo.
August 10, 2025 at 10:31 PM
split ticket has done interesting work. however analyzing data to show what happened in past elections is not the same skill as using data to influence future elections. it can be especially dangerous from people who no actual experience on campaigns.
individual level generic ballot support is heavily influenced by which party you view more favorably and some nuance is lost not breaking out strength of fav.
these are from over 10k responses in NY 2022 and 2024. when i ran it i was shocked at the consistency
these are from over 10k responses in NY 2022 and 2024. when i ran it i was shocked at the consistency
July 29, 2025 at 10:19 PM
individual level generic ballot support is heavily influenced by which party you view more favorably and some nuance is lost not breaking out strength of fav.
these are from over 10k responses in NY 2022 and 2024. when i ran it i was shocked at the consistency
these are from over 10k responses in NY 2022 and 2024. when i ran it i was shocked at the consistency
cant figure out if i should just try to remember the thing im trying to remember or just look it up
July 18, 2025 at 12:04 AM
cant figure out if i should just try to remember the thing im trying to remember or just look it up
interesting in the syracuse and albany dem primaries for mayor, white voters increased their share of the electorate from 2021 to 2025 while comfortably nominating black women.
syracuse 62% -> 69%
albany 74% -> 77%
syracuse 62% -> 69%
albany 74% -> 77%
July 14, 2025 at 10:27 PM
interesting in the syracuse and albany dem primaries for mayor, white voters increased their share of the electorate from 2021 to 2025 while comfortably nominating black women.
syracuse 62% -> 69%
albany 74% -> 77%
syracuse 62% -> 69%
albany 74% -> 77%
a bit more breakdown tracking age by borough and ev day (still only first 7 days)
June 23, 2025 at 10:23 PM
a bit more breakdown tracking age by borough and ev day (still only first 7 days)
interesting age chart for early voting in nyc among dems (first 7 days only though) in raw numbers 29 and 30 had the highest numbers
June 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM
interesting age chart for early voting in nyc among dems (first 7 days only though) in raw numbers 29 and 30 had the highest numbers
big night for the special election overperformance model
May 21, 2025 at 1:12 AM
big night for the special election overperformance model
please put a tariff on the term "median voter"
May 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
please put a tariff on the term "median voter"