Claire Hartnell
@cjhartnell.bsky.social
Mostly systems thinking, complexity, organisational anthropology but also far too much amygdala hijack stuff
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Pinned
The unkillable bird
Gaussian markets, power laws and the hyper cycle
open.substack.com
I wrote about the ‘unkillable birds’ that have been allowed to take over our system. We see our world as predictable and linear. We think small contingencies will protect us from the worst risks. They won’t. Here's why:
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Every case study like this should be balanced by one such as a 15-year-old with suicidal ideation unable to receive any help because CAMHS has been cut to virtual non-existence.
Huge respect to the papers for finding both an 88 year old worried about the tax bill on her 6 bedroom Kensington house and a 20 year old fretting about only being able to save £12k a year tax free.
Top work all around. These are not easy case studies to find.
Top work all around. These are not easy case studies to find.
November 29, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Every case study like this should be balanced by one such as a 15-year-old with suicidal ideation unable to receive any help because CAMHS has been cut to virtual non-existence.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
I don't see how Tesla's Model 3 can survive if Benz can offer an alternative EV this cheap, with this kind of performance, on top of the 15% tariff that it's charged in the US.
Imagine what this model does to Tesla in Europe, where Benz pays no tariffs.
Imagine what this model does to Tesla in Europe, where Benz pays no tariffs.
November 26, 2025 at 11:15 PM
I don't see how Tesla's Model 3 can survive if Benz can offer an alternative EV this cheap, with this kind of performance, on top of the 15% tariff that it's charged in the US.
Imagine what this model does to Tesla in Europe, where Benz pays no tariffs.
Imagine what this model does to Tesla in Europe, where Benz pays no tariffs.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
"It's amazing what people get so angry about and on that side it's lifting children out of poverty," says Rachel Reeves as Conservative MPs try to shout down her announcement that she is scrapping the two child benefit cap which has pushed hundreds of thousands of children below the poverty line
November 26, 2025 at 1:33 PM
"It's amazing what people get so angry about and on that side it's lifting children out of poverty," says Rachel Reeves as Conservative MPs try to shout down her announcement that she is scrapping the two child benefit cap which has pushed hundreds of thousands of children below the poverty line
Totally agree - honestly, lots of people must be feeling a fraction less helpless at this welcome news:
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Totally agree - honestly, lots of people must be feeling a fraction less helpless at this welcome news:
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Griffin Protome from a Cauldron (Greece, Samos, 650-640 BCE)
Harvard Art Museums, Boston
Harvard Art Museums, Boston
November 25, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Griffin Protome from a Cauldron (Greece, Samos, 650-640 BCE)
Harvard Art Museums, Boston
Harvard Art Museums, Boston
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Chancellor Reeves is hell bent on shrinking the nation’s income with tax increases today. She cut the nation’s ability to invest and spend in the 2024 Budget.
Predictably, the budget deficit rose.
In 2024/25 it was 5.3%, up from 4.8% in 2023/24.
annpettifor.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Predictably, the budget deficit rose.
In 2024/25 it was 5.3%, up from 4.8% in 2023/24.
annpettifor.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Central Banks and Government Budgets - As If Democracy Matters
In Britain Tax austerity threatens to follow monetary and fiscal austerity
annpettifor.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Chancellor Reeves is hell bent on shrinking the nation’s income with tax increases today. She cut the nation’s ability to invest and spend in the 2024 Budget.
Predictably, the budget deficit rose.
In 2024/25 it was 5.3%, up from 4.8% in 2023/24.
annpettifor.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Predictably, the budget deficit rose.
In 2024/25 it was 5.3%, up from 4.8% in 2023/24.
annpettifor.substack.com/p/central-ba...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Trial by jury is a cornerstone of our democracy and an essential safeguard against authoritarianism.
It is truly frightening that such a fundamental freedom is now under attack.
Once rights are lost, they are not easy to win back. We must resist this with all we’ve got.
It is truly frightening that such a fundamental freedom is now under attack.
Once rights are lost, they are not easy to win back. We must resist this with all we’ve got.
MoJ to remove right to trial by jury for thousands of cases in controversial overhaul
MoJ to remove right to trial by jury for thousands of cases in controversial overhaul
Exclusive: Courts minister says change needed to stop criminals opting for juries to delay cases, sometimes by years, and clear huge backlog
*
UK politics live – latest updates
Criminals will be stopped from “gaming the system” by choosing trial by jury in order to increase the chances of proceedings collapsing, the courts minister has said, promising to enact radical changes to limit jury trials by the next election.
Drug dealers and career criminals were “laughing in the dock” knowing cases can take years to come to trial, Sarah Sackman told the Guardian, saying inaction would be a road to “chaos and ruin”. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Trial by jury is a cornerstone of our democracy and an essential safeguard against authoritarianism.
It is truly frightening that such a fundamental freedom is now under attack.
Once rights are lost, they are not easy to win back. We must resist this with all we’ve got.
It is truly frightening that such a fundamental freedom is now under attack.
Once rights are lost, they are not easy to win back. We must resist this with all we’ve got.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Ernst Haeckel. Discomedusae, 1904
November 3, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Ernst Haeckel. Discomedusae, 1904
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Ernst Haeckel, a remarkable German biologist, philosopher and artist who discovered, described and named thousands of new species and mapped a genealogical tree relating all life forms.
from Haeckel's Kunstformen der Natur (1904)
from Haeckel's Kunstformen der Natur (1904)
November 22, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Ernst Haeckel, a remarkable German biologist, philosopher and artist who discovered, described and named thousands of new species and mapped a genealogical tree relating all life forms.
from Haeckel's Kunstformen der Natur (1904)
from Haeckel's Kunstformen der Natur (1904)
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil said it was “very mistaken and very irresponsible” of Trump to “threaten other [countries] on social media”.
“The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor. We are sovereign countries”
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
“The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor. We are sovereign countries”
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
July 10, 2025 at 3:13 AM
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil said it was “very mistaken and very irresponsible” of Trump to “threaten other [countries] on social media”.
“The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor. We are sovereign countries”
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
“The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor. We are sovereign countries”
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
I wrote about the flatness of the digital world and why the singularity isn't going to happen:
November 20, 2025 at 7:26 PM
I wrote about the flatness of the digital world and why the singularity isn't going to happen:
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
"Fluffy stuff"? In the #HouseofLords my response to this claim that focusing on anything but profits is wrong
November 20, 2025 at 6:17 PM
"Fluffy stuff"? In the #HouseofLords my response to this claim that focusing on anything but profits is wrong
The right to trial by jury is one of the most foundational aspects of our society. It’s not just a service, it has philosophical & moral resonance. I’m beginning to wonder whether any member of this government has ever entertained a genuine thought in their lives?
November 20, 2025 at 3:42 PM
The right to trial by jury is one of the most foundational aspects of our society. It’s not just a service, it has philosophical & moral resonance. I’m beginning to wonder whether any member of this government has ever entertained a genuine thought in their lives?
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
This is the real black hole in sovereign budgets. Just start seizing all assets registered to offshore LLCs.
Total offshore assets (bank deposits, securities, real‑estate)
10-17 Trillion dollars.
That amount sits outside normal tax systems, so governments can’t collect revenue on it.
10-17 Trillion dollars.
That amount sits outside normal tax systems, so governments can’t collect revenue on it.
November 19, 2025 at 8:38 AM
This is the real black hole in sovereign budgets. Just start seizing all assets registered to offshore LLCs.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
The i Paper is reporting that once the changes are brought in, the 20 year route will be applied to refugees who are already here.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
November 19, 2025 at 8:06 AM
The i Paper is reporting that once the changes are brought in, the 20 year route will be applied to refugees who are already here.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
1/8
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
Poor Countries Got $1 Trillion From China. So Did Rich Ones.
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:53 AM
1/8
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
A new Harvard study—the first large-scale comparison of Amazon, UPS & FedEx drivers—shows what worker power really means:
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
November 17, 2025 at 4:57 PM
A new Harvard study—the first large-scale comparison of Amazon, UPS & FedEx drivers—shows what worker power really means:
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
Will they be yanking out their Gold teeth? This is too appalling for words👇
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum seekers’ jewellery could be seized to pay for processing costs, says Home Office minister
Idea borrowed from Denmark is latest attempt to reduce number of people seeking asylum in UK
www.theguardian.com
November 17, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Will they be yanking out their Gold teeth? This is too appalling for words👇
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
The golden age of diversity and democracy in Oz.
November 16, 2025 at 7:04 AM
The golden age of diversity and democracy in Oz.
This is exactly right. Pettis takes such a beating because it’s comforting to think: global trade⬆️. Must be good. But open capital accounts undermine Ricardo. CA *should* rebalance the cost of labour through currency price. Instead labour is suppressed, currencies rise without exports, $$ debased:
10/10
Economists insist that "free trade" benefits a country whether or not its trade partners engage in free trade, but that's only because they assume balanced trade. Few understand that the arithmetic of comparative advantage only works when exports are used to pay for imports.
Economists insist that "free trade" benefits a country whether or not its trade partners engage in free trade, but that's only because they assume balanced trade. Few understand that the arithmetic of comparative advantage only works when exports are used to pay for imports.
November 16, 2025 at 7:39 AM
This is exactly right. Pettis takes such a beating because it’s comforting to think: global trade⬆️. Must be good. But open capital accounts undermine Ricardo. CA *should* rebalance the cost of labour through currency price. Instead labour is suppressed, currencies rise without exports, $$ debased:
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
7/10
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
November 16, 2025 at 5:56 AM
7/10
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
2/10
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
November 16, 2025 at 5:56 AM
2/10
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
There was unauthorised movement out of Nazi Germany by Jews, there is unauthorised movement out of North Korea, so there is always going to be some unauthorised movement - you can reduce it by increasing the risk of doing it (we've done this quite a bit - we stopped the lorries, hence the boats).
November 16, 2025 at 12:47 AM
There was unauthorised movement out of Nazi Germany by Jews, there is unauthorised movement out of North Korea, so there is always going to be some unauthorised movement - you can reduce it by increasing the risk of doing it (we've done this quite a bit - we stopped the lorries, hence the boats).
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
3/The mistreatment of women in economics has long been an open secret. I have felt the obligation to discuss sexism in the profession with every female graduate student I have had starting as an Assistant Professor to this day.
November 15, 2025 at 4:32 PM
3/The mistreatment of women in economics has long been an open secret. I have felt the obligation to discuss sexism in the profession with every female graduate student I have had starting as an Assistant Professor to this day.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
“Interested in my commentary on her outfits.” I absolutely guarantee she was not.
November 15, 2025 at 11:15 PM
“Interested in my commentary on her outfits.” I absolutely guarantee she was not.