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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 19h

I was the blissed out 48 year old

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 1d

In a non-free scenario I prefer OnShape, and it’s all web based.

nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

is "doesn't hold water" a reference to the piss tape

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

And I'm currently out of town, doing this from a hotel room, streaming my home desktop via Parsec. Home connection is 2 gig fiber and even with mediocre hotel wifi I'm getting only 60ms latency end to end at 3440x1440 4:4:4 h265. What a world.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

So I'm currently day trading 7 different accounts over 4 different platforms: 1 IBKR Trader Workstation, 1 Tradier Pro, 1 ThinkOrSwim, 4 Robinhood Legends.

Each are on a separate virtual desktop I can quickly switch between.

I've found that this really helps me to not overtrade my accounts.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

So my take is that the 30-year interest rate will be over 10%. Like these guys can fuck around with the system and wall street can put the blinders on and pretend everything is fine, but there are places where it will always show through.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

I've been stocking up on OTM long-dated TLT puts, especially now when TLT is rising. Same story as gold, really. What yield would a 30 year bond need if a $100 face value has the buying power of $10? A 30 year product only works during extremely stable times. (not fin. advice, these likely go to 0)

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

Macro and market history has always been my strength, but I was a TERRIBLE trader. Chasing things, buying high, panic selling, holding paper options gains too long. Now I learn to look the opposite way. And looking for the next thing.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

And great VIX trading too. Bought call spreads, then bought out the short calls when volatility fell. Wait for the pop, roll the long call to a strike 3 points higher for $1.50 cash, sell another short call to make a spread again.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

And I've done some of my best trading with SLV. It had a 6% range one day recently, and I rolled up an ITM call to a higher strike, bought a put, took a bunch of cash. It drops 6%, roll the put down, buy another call, take cash out. Pops 3 or 4 percent, repeat. Been rolling those calls for weeks.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

I had the macro right: they were one of the 3 main banks for crypto and at one point had Ivanka Trump on their board. Obvious short after FTX blowup.

But this one, I had the timing right, the macro right, and got into position when it was cheap. Then it just works itself out.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

I'm finally understanding what it means to be in position on a trade. This is my best one yet because I puzzled over it for months, did a ton of research, and this outcome seemed inescapable.

My best trade was when SBNY went to zero, but those puts were down 99% with 1 week left. That was luck.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

I had my mom start dollar cost averaging into GLD and IAU in May, then added some LEAP call spreads and cheap leveraged put protection, then some KRE LEAP put spreads, and some VIX starting 2 weeks ago. She's up 90% in that account with very little daily risk. Was in perfect position for this run.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

A couple weeks ago I opened up robinhood accounts for my mom and my kids with $100 balances. bought GLD and IAU calls and call spreads. kids are up 500%, mom's is up 750% (bought closer-dated ones in hers). Not just up, but taking profits, rolling out and up, so kids accounts are at $300 cash.

nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 24d

it's parabolic even when viewing on log scale. insane. i am very long gold obvi

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 2d

When I said someday, maybe I meant "19 days"

nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 22d

One day we will know the names of every single person involved in every single one of these crimes. They're creating as much of a digital paper trail as anyone else.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 5d

And since the only option is to shut your account down, brigading is equivalent to a dos attack at the account level.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 5d

The G in AGI stands for gooner

Tuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · 5d

The pivot from “I’m building god” to “I’m building a jerkoff tool” is pretty funny

Reuters @reuters.com · 5d

OpenAI to allow mature content on ChatGPT for adult verified users starting December reut.rs/3J8NTAi

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 5d

It still boils down to exactly what Brooks argued in No Silver Bullet in 1986. Essential complexity is irreducible and accounts for the bulk of software engineering time.

And I've yet to see anyone argue otherwise.

No Silver Bullet
—Essence and Accident in Software Engineering
Frederick P. Brooks, Jr.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
There is no single development, in either technology or management
technique, which by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude
improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity.
Abstract1
All software construction involves essential tasks, the fashioning of the complex
conceptual structures that compose the abstract software entity, and accidental tasks, the
representation of these abstract entities in programming languages and the mapping of
these onto machine languages within space and speed constraints. Most of the big past
gains in software productivity have come from removing artificial barriers that have
made the accidental tasks inordinately hard, such as severe hardware constraints,
awkward programming languages, lack of machine time. How much of what software
engineers now do is still devoted to the accidental, as opposed to the essential? Unless it
is more than 9/10 of all effort, shrinking all the accidental activities to zero time will not
give an order of magnitude improvement.
Therefore it appears that the time has come to address the essential parts of the
software task, those concerned with fashioning abstract conceptual structures of great
complexity. I suggest:
•
•
•
•
Exploiting the mass market to avoid constructing what can be bought.
Using rapid prototyping as part of a planned iteration in establishing software
requirements.
Growing software organically, adding more and more function to systems as they are
run, used, and tested.
Identifying and developing the great conceptual designers of the rising generation

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 5d

1 boils down to "developer tooling". Pre-AI Jetbrains does $300M in revenue, so even if you give it an order of magnitude we're talking like $5B. In my experience most companies do not like spending on dev tools, even ones that bring more productivity gains than LLMs.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 6d

klarna is even offering "margin loans" at 0% interest lol. you could buy gold/silver bars, buy GLD/IAU/SLV puts to protect them and sell bars when payments come due, pocket the difference.

(this is absolutely not financial advice)

screenshot of 1 kilo silver bar on jm bullion website with klarna 0% interest offer.

nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 6d

went to my friend's show last night and I was standing next to a guy beforehand who looked cool and when I left I was like "damn why didn't I talk to that guy??" and today my friend said "did you know you were standing next to Mike D all night?"

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 8d

Wild that one internet money will still buy you 28 ounces of pure gold. 1.75 pounds of it. 0,8 kilos

Stock chart showing the price of a bitcoin divided by the price of an ounce of gold.

nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 8d

It was my best investment. Bought $400 worth (1.7btc) to buy weed but chickened out and lost the paper-only private key for 5 years. Lmk if you want to invest in my hedge fund.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 8d

The unregulated markets people sure love to complain about unregulated markets.

The Securities Exchange Act exists for extremely good reasons.

Ed Burmila @edburmila.bsky.social · 8d

Oh shit. President Crimes and his crimes friends are committing crimes with the fake money for doing crimes. Have you guys seen this.

August J. Pollak @augustjpollak.bsky.social · 8d

I love how the big news on Trump’s tariff announcement is how moments before he made it a bunch of people made insanely profitable shorts on crypto, a thing that Bitcoin Bros are all astounded to see happening in a completely unregulated market of a fake currency primarily used by criminals.

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nick @caveatruptur.bsky.social · 8d

Could shareholder derivative lawsuits work here?

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