@biorealism.bsky.social
Reposted
Pekar 2022 was 1 of 2 key papers supporting a market origin of covid, via multiple spillovers. v3 of my arXiv fixing its math errors in a transparent way is now up, with a new histogram. tl;dr The answer from their model applied to their data is the opposite of their claim. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
November 11, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Pekar 2022 was 1 of 2 key papers supporting a market origin of covid, via multiple spillovers. v3 of my arXiv fixing its math errors in a transparent way is now up, with a new histogram. tl;dr The answer from their model applied to their data is the opposite of their claim. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Reposted
1/23 🚨 New insights into #COVID19Origins! 🔍 In this thread, I reveal previously unreported key aspects:
1️⃣ Direct connections between the CIA and virologist Ralph Baric in U.S.-China virology cooperation and monitoring. 🕵️♂️🇨🇳
2️⃣ The complete ODNI BSEG composition as of Sep 2020—never published
1️⃣ Direct connections between the CIA and virologist Ralph Baric in U.S.-China virology cooperation and monitoring. 🕵️♂️🇨🇳
2️⃣ The complete ODNI BSEG composition as of Sep 2020—never published
November 6, 2025 at 8:00 PM
1/23 🚨 New insights into #COVID19Origins! 🔍 In this thread, I reveal previously unreported key aspects:
1️⃣ Direct connections between the CIA and virologist Ralph Baric in U.S.-China virology cooperation and monitoring. 🕵️♂️🇨🇳
2️⃣ The complete ODNI BSEG composition as of Sep 2020—never published
1️⃣ Direct connections between the CIA and virologist Ralph Baric in U.S.-China virology cooperation and monitoring. 🕵️♂️🇨🇳
2️⃣ The complete ODNI BSEG composition as of Sep 2020—never published
Reposted
This should be very close to the final version, after a few improvements over the last few days.
@SenTomCotton @RandPaul @USRightToKnow
medium.com/@gillesdema...
@SenTomCotton @RandPaul @USRightToKnow
medium.com/@gillesdema...
The ODNI’s “B Group” Meeting: Ralph Baric’s January 2020 Briefing
Exploring a key Intelligence Community advisory session on coronaviruses, and its relevance to COVID-19 Origins, based on declassified…
gillesdemaneuf.medium.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:45 PM
This should be very close to the final version, after a few improvements over the last few days.
@SenTomCotton @RandPaul @USRightToKnow
medium.com/@gillesdema...
@SenTomCotton @RandPaul @USRightToKnow
medium.com/@gillesdema...
Reposted
Mysterious will-o’-the-wisps ignited by microlightning | Science | AAAS www.science.org/content/arti...
Mysterious will-o’-the-wisps ignited by microlightning
Electrical discharge from microscopic bubbles offers a new explanation for fleeting flames of folklore
www.science.org
September 30, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Mysterious will-o’-the-wisps ignited by microlightning | Science | AAAS www.science.org/content/arti...
Reposted
Reposted
'Enough is enough' - New Zealand First wants to ban private fireworks
www.rnz.co.nz
November 4, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Overinterpreting underpowered multi-omics experiments: Betaine, Exercise-in-a-pill, Geroprotection thecodon.substack.com/p/falling-in...
Overinterpreting underpowered multi-omics experiments
Betaine, Exercise-in-a-pill, Geroprotection
thecodon.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Overinterpreting underpowered multi-omics experiments: Betaine, Exercise-in-a-pill, Geroprotection thecodon.substack.com/p/falling-in...
Reposted
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Really interesting insight.
Really interesting insight.
Sex, drugs and the conscious brain: Francis Crick beyond the double helix
A thoroughly researched account of the history and relationships that shaped the scientist who co-discovered the structure of DNA.
www.nature.com
November 3, 2025 at 11:27 PM
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Really interesting insight.
Really interesting insight.
Reposted
Wait- that's all stuff from Pekar 2022, the paper with enormous math errors that you just said was irrelevant. When those errors are fixed, its 2-spill probability becomes low, which undercuts its whole story. Tho P(other zoo stories) is unaffected by market-story errors.
November 3, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Wait- that's all stuff from Pekar 2022, the paper with enormous math errors that you just said was irrelevant. When those errors are fixed, its 2-spill probability becomes low, which undercuts its whole story. Tho P(other zoo stories) is unaffected by market-story errors.
Reposted
By that token anything by anyone who cites anything by any of the 29 authors of Pekar et al. 2022 would have to be presumed false. Let's stick to the specific points. Here the only relevant one is whether leaving RE sites in eases making a series of partial new clones.
November 3, 2025 at 6:48 PM
By that token anything by anyone who cites anything by any of the 29 authors of Pekar et al. 2022 would have to be presumed false. Let's stick to the specific points. Here the only relevant one is whether leaving RE sites in eases making a series of partial new clones.
Reposted
It was, in fact, a very good job by Brookings.
See michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconve... for a (long) systematic summary of the evidence. For bite-size published refutations of the key zoonotic claims:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
academic.oup.com/ve/article/1...
See michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconve... for a (long) systematic summary of the evidence. For bite-size published refutations of the key zoonotic claims:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
academic.oup.com/ve/article/1...
Importance of quantifying the number of viral reads in metagenomic sequencing of environmental samples from the Huanan Seafood Market
Abstract. In March 2023, the Chinese CDC publicly released raw metagenomic sequencing data for environmental samples collected in early 2020 from the Huana
academic.oup.com
October 28, 2025 at 2:13 AM
It was, in fact, a very good job by Brookings.
See michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconve... for a (long) systematic summary of the evidence. For bite-size published refutations of the key zoonotic claims:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
academic.oup.com/ve/article/1...
See michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconve... for a (long) systematic summary of the evidence. For bite-size published refutations of the key zoonotic claims:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
academic.oup.com/ve/article/1...
Reposted
Dinosaurs were thriving until asteroid struck, research suggests
Dinosaurs were thriving until asteroid struck, research suggests
Dating of rock formation in New Mexico casts doubt on theory that species was already in decline
Dinosaurs would not have become extinct had it not been for a catastrophic asteroid strike, researchers have said, challenging the idea the animals were already in decline.
About 66m years ago, during the late Cretaceous period, a huge space rock crashed into Earth, triggering a mass extinction that wiped out all dinosaurs except birds. However, some experts have argued the dinosaurs were already in decline. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Dinosaurs were thriving until asteroid struck, research suggests
Reposted
Week in wildlife: a ferocious wildcat, a cheeky seal and a disgruntled lioness
Week in wildlife: a ferocious wildcat, a cheeky seal and a disgruntled lioness
The best of this week’s wildlife photographs from around the world
www.theguardian.com
October 24, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Week in wildlife: a ferocious wildcat, a cheeky seal and a disgruntled lioness
Reposted
Bloom again on evidence of bias in the early sequences and why the root of the SARS-CoV-2 tree cannot be conclusively resolved with the current data.
academic.oup.com/mbe/article/...
academic.oup.com/mbe/article/...
October 22, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Bloom again on evidence of bias in the early sequences and why the root of the SARS-CoV-2 tree cannot be conclusively resolved with the current data.
academic.oup.com/mbe/article/...
academic.oup.com/mbe/article/...
Reposted
Who is conflicted in this scenario? There are obviously significant limitations with early case data which George Gao acknowledged was biased towards the market. The multiple spillover theory rests on a flawed analysis at odds with the analyses of Bloom, Kumar and Lv et al.
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to human...
arxiv.org
October 22, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Who is conflicted in this scenario? There are obviously significant limitations with early case data which George Gao acknowledged was biased towards the market. The multiple spillover theory rests on a flawed analysis at odds with the analyses of Bloom, Kumar and Lv et al.
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Reposted
Very interesting. “one of the greatest lessons of the last five years is that public health needs to step up its game in dealing with uncertainty.”
October 22, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Very interesting. “one of the greatest lessons of the last five years is that public health needs to step up its game in dealing with uncertainty.”
Reposted
Sample read now available at Amazon.
Kindle version shares Front matter, Introduction, and Part of chapter 1.
www.amazon.com/Darwins-Peop...
Kindle version shares Front matter, Introduction, and Part of chapter 1.
www.amazon.com/Darwins-Peop...
Darwin's People: How Naturalists Explain Our Behavior
Darwin's People: How Naturalists Explain Our Behavior - Kindle edition by Moon, Brian. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading Darwin's People: How Naturalists Explain Our Behavior.
www.amazon.com
October 21, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Sample read now available at Amazon.
Kindle version shares Front matter, Introduction, and Part of chapter 1.
www.amazon.com/Darwins-Peop...
Kindle version shares Front matter, Introduction, and Part of chapter 1.
www.amazon.com/Darwins-Peop...
Reposted
Michael B. Weissman: Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.01484 https://arxiv.org/html/2510.01484
October 3, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Michael B. Weissman: Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.01484 https://arxiv.org/html/2510.01484
Reposted
The corrections to the Pekar 2022 Science paper claiming multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions are factorizable and simple, using data contained in the paper and minimal assumptions. Their data and model imply that a single introduction was more likely.
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to human...
arxiv.org
October 3, 2025 at 2:20 AM
The corrections to the Pekar 2022 Science paper claiming multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions are factorizable and simple, using data contained in the paper and minimal assumptions. Their data and model imply that a single introduction was more likely.
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
"Here I show that after correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning [by Pekar et al] the results in that paper give larger likelihood for a single introduction than for two."
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to human...
arxiv.org
October 4, 2025 at 1:02 AM
"Here I show that after correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning [by Pekar et al] the results in that paper give larger likelihood for a single introduction than for two."
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Reposted
NIH committee green-lighted Wuhan coronavirus experiments despite concerns, emails show
Via @lewiskamb.bsky.social @usrighttoknow.bsky.social
usrtk.org/covid-19-ori...
Via @lewiskamb.bsky.social @usrighttoknow.bsky.social
usrtk.org/covid-19-ori...
NIH committee green-lighted Wuhan coronavirus experiments despite concerns, emails show
Public records for the first time show the NIH "gain-of-function" review committee's informal vetting of a controversial project in Wuhan.
usrtk.org
September 30, 2025 at 1:04 PM
NIH committee green-lighted Wuhan coronavirus experiments despite concerns, emails show
Via @lewiskamb.bsky.social @usrighttoknow.bsky.social
usrtk.org/covid-19-ori...
Via @lewiskamb.bsky.social @usrighttoknow.bsky.social
usrtk.org/covid-19-ori...
Reposted
I'm at #datajconf in Athens this week and one very cool thing we've done is take a tour of the library of Journalists' Union of Athens Daily Newspapers, where they've kept a history of Greek news outlets. This is one of the oldest prints they have of, I believe, a paper called Neos Aristophanes.
September 9, 2025 at 5:26 AM
I'm at #datajconf in Athens this week and one very cool thing we've done is take a tour of the library of Journalists' Union of Athens Daily Newspapers, where they've kept a history of Greek news outlets. This is one of the oldest prints they have of, I believe, a paper called Neos Aristophanes.
Reposted
Co-discoverer of reverse transcriptase at 32, Nobel Prize at 37, played a key role at the 1975 Asilomar comference.
David Baltimore, Nobel-Winning Molecular Biologist, Dies at 87
www.nytimes.com
September 7, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Co-discoverer of reverse transcriptase at 32, Nobel Prize at 37, played a key role at the 1975 Asilomar comference.
Reposted
What you just wrote is untrue, in many dimensions. Anyone who thinks the origins debate is settled in favor of zoonosis on the basis of current evidence is not attending to the evidence.
September 6, 2025 at 5:47 PM
What you just wrote is untrue, in many dimensions. Anyone who thinks the origins debate is settled in favor of zoonosis on the basis of current evidence is not attending to the evidence.