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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 1h

I wrote about my logo and my recent experiment with some topologically-accurate swag over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/posts/logo-h....

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 1h

On Wed Dec 10 join me to learn about what a regression model is, and what a regression model is not, while raising funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. For details on how to register, sponsored registration possibilities, and more see betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

A slide with the text “Predicting a missing variate for a fully observed covariate, however, is not always the relevant predictive task.”, a probabilistic graphical model for predicting a missing variate given a partially observed covariate, and a corresponding equation for the posterior prediction distribution.

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 19h

👀👀👀

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 13h

“Black box modeling assumptions.”

🏰meg⚔️ @Birthright Audiobook! @impavid.us · 3d

In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand

I'll go first: Six page commercial lease.

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 13h

Zeroeth-order jet, first-order jet, and second-order jet is alphabetical if you just reverse cycle the alphabet by one character…

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 18h

Agreed! If you're don't find derivatives useful then you're just differentiating the wrong thing. :-p

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 19h

👀👀👀

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 19h

An explicit target functional, of course, would make this all much less confusing, which nicely builds off of your initial joint modeling comment!

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 19h

I think the missing gap is that people are implicitly smoothing/mean-fielding the simulation output, but because it's implicit it's not obvious that the same should be applied to derivatives.

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 19h

The push back I had from my limited conversations with people doing weather/climate forecasting in particular is that the systems tend to be so chaotic that point derivatives aren't that meaningful.

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Konsta Happonen @konsta.happonen.eu · 5d

Relatedly, ages ago @betanalpha.bsky.social wrote "Remember that using Bayes' Theorem doesn't make you a Bayesian. Quantifying uncertainty with probability makes you a Bayesian". I still think about this regularly.

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

L @banalplay.bsky.social · 6d

When your custom character appears in a cut scene

The Portland frog backing down an army of jackboots

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 7d

Friendly reminder that on Dec 10 I will be offering my Bayesian regression modeling course at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. Details about the course and registration process can be found on my website, betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Courses

betanalpha.github.io

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 6d

> git check —retro

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Steve Horton is writing a graphic novel @stevehorton.mst3k.fan · 6d

fuck the moon @fuckthem00n
FUCK THE MOON
fly me to the moon let me kick it's fucking ass let me show it what i learned
in my moon jujitsu class
3:05 PM • 10/17/19 • Twitter for Android
28K Retweets 111K Likes
FUCK THE MOON
fuck the moon @fuckthem00n • 1d wow this blew up. wish the moon would.
29
LX238
4,182
V

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 7d

Friendly reminder that on Dec 10 I will be offering my Bayesian regression modeling course at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. Details about the course and registration process can be found on my website, betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Courses

betanalpha.github.io

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 7d

Good news! There’s nothing predictive about them. Functions like that implement _retrodictive_ comparisons, making them PR checks which is slightly less embarrassing to say.

<steps off soapbox>

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Dragon Moll Z 🎃 @dopestatistics.bsky.social · 8d

Telling my professor I cant turn in my homework because my expected value is now sentient

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Almost Sure @almostsure.bsky.social · 8d

Helter skelter

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Carlos Scheidegger @cscheid.net · 10d

In case it isn't clear: it's obviously the right thing because

1) one of those two options is easy to undo.
2) Given the choice, a command that is easy to undo should always be the easiest to reach for.

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

ChûgFromABigHûgMûg @bghgmg.bsky.social · 10d

gender norms admit the existence of gender metrics which can be abstracted to gender topologies which, here, we categorify into gender locales, also known as pointless genders

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Poorly Drawn Lines @poorlydrawnlines.bsky.social · 10d

smarter

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Chelsea Parlett @chelseaparlett.bsky.social · 11d

HMC: *has lots of divergent transitions*

Me: *fixing it*

Russel from up saying “the target distribution must be explored”

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Reposted by Michael Boo-tancourt

Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 11d

On Wed, Dec 10 I will be offering my comprehensive introduction to regression modeling at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. Details about the course and registration process can be found on my website, betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Courses

betanalpha.github.io

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Michael Boo-tancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 11d

On Wed, Dec 10 I will be offering my comprehensive introduction to regression modeling at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. Details about the course and registration process can be found on my website, betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Courses

betanalpha.github.io

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