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Reposted by Ben Raue

Nick Casmirri @ncasmirri.bsky.social · 2d

Just in time for reference if you're still mulling over registering a political party to contest the election.

Ben Raue @benraue.com · 2d

I've published my full guide to the 2027 NSW state election. Yes, it's a while away, but if you're trying to wrap your head around how it might go, you'll find it useful. www.tallyroom.com.au/62772 #nswpol

NSW election guide now live

As part of my efforts to prepare election guides for all of the upcoming elections, I have now published a guide to the 2027 NSW state election. While that election is still almost a year and a hal…

www.tallyroom.com.au

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 2d

You can read the whole guide if you sign up as a Tally Room donor via Patreon for $8 per month (+GST), but I've unlocked three seat guides as a sample: Camden, Goulburn and Willoughby www.patreon.com/tallyroom

Get more from The Tally Room on Patreon

creating electoral analysis and podcasts

www.patreon.com

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 2d

I've published my full guide to the 2027 NSW state election. Yes, it's a while away, but if you're trying to wrap your head around how it might go, you'll find it useful. www.tallyroom.com.au/62772 #nswpol

NSW election guide now live

As part of my efforts to prepare election guides for all of the upcoming elections, I have now published a guide to the 2027 NSW state election. While that election is still almost a year and a hal…

www.tallyroom.com.au

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 3d

Jonn’s answer is most definitely “no”

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 11d

I am not familiar enough with local geography to know.

Rustie's writings are all from before the boundaries (draft or final) were published but I think he's planning further analysis.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 12d

New Zealand has undergone a redistribution of their electorate boundaries, and I thought I would summarise the changes and estimate the vote margins for the new seats. #nzpol www.tallyroom.com.au/62140

New Zealand’s new electoral map

New Zealand will go to the polls next year at their next general election, and the electoral map of New Zealand has been redrawn in advance of that election. New Zealand’s parliament is elect…

www.tallyroom.com.au

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 14d

Somewhat, but overall it’s still close.

Ben Raue @benraue.com · 15d

you're welcome

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 15d

yep.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 15d

I’m going to be discussing this topic on ABC Radio Sydney in a few minutes.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 15d

Yes I’ve noticed the Nationals were much more enthusiastic about parliamentary expansion than the Liberals when the committee was discussing the issue.

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Reposted by Ben Raue

Travis Jordan @grugstan.bsky.social · 16d

I'm voting in UQ's Senate election today for the three alumni seats and it's a masterclass in terrible electoral design.

For one it uses the terrible perversion that is the FPTP method of election multiple members in a seat.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

Overall the extra Senate seats wouldn’t have changed the left-right balance by much.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

As for the Senate, Brandis claims the Greens would be the main beneficiaries, but this couldn’t be more wrong. The Greens at the moment are over-represented in the Senate. Expanding to 14 or 16 senators would just solidify their current seats. Most seats would go to Labor, the Coaltion or One Nation

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

An expanded parliament would add seats in all five mainland states, but shouldn’t benefit particular parties. If parties benefit from urban areas having an increasing share of seats, that will happen whether or not the parliament is expanded.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

For now I’m just talking about the proposal to increase the number of senators per state, and the increased number of seats in the House as a consequence.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

In response to an error-riddled op-ed from George Brandis yesterday, I’ve written a post about who would benefit from an expanded parliament. www.tallyroom.com.au/62130

Who would benefit from an expanded parliament?

Today’s blog post is inspired by a strange opinion piece in the Nine papers yesterday by former federal Liberal Attorney-General George Brandis. Brandis’ piece (in addition to incorrect…

www.tallyroom.com.au

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

yes I did notice that Thorpe thing. I've got a blog post tomorrow morning on this.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

Here's the op-ed link www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...

A larger parliament makes sense, but that’s not why Albanese wants one

The argument for increasing the size of the parliament is a respectable one. But Labor’s motivation for doing so would be a cold-blooded calculation of political advantage.

www.theage.com.au

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

The article just has a flat-out mistake where he says the parliament was last expanded in 1987. They even re-use that mistake in a pull-out quote! It was 1984.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

It also isn't logical that the Greens would benefit significantly from a Senate increase. Lowering the quota to 11% wouldn't really give the Greens much of a chance of winning extra seats - most of the benefits would go to the majors or smaller parties!

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

If the parliament is expanded, those new seats will be shared around the country proportionally, including in regional area. That will include slow-growing rural areas not losing seats they would have otherwise lost.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 16d

This op-ed from George Brandis is full of holes and I don't know how The Age let it through.

-He claims that "Because most population growth is in city electorates", the ALP would gain most from a House expansion, even though the population growth benefits parties who do well in cities regardless.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 17d

I do think for a particular kind of election postal voting probably works better - depoliticised, not in the public eye, little known about the candidates, non partisan.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 17d

I don't think I've ever had a good dataset on this question. Advocates of postal voting in Victoria pointed to higher turnout - I think there are other issues with turnout. The last election in VIC to feature a mix of methods was in 2016, and turnout was lower on average in attendance councils.

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