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Amni Rusli

@amnirusli.bsky.social

2K followers 2.9K following 570 posts

Quant, Economist. I write about the US monetary policy at eightateeight.substack.com and about trade at https://eighttradeeight.substack.com/ 🇨🇭

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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · Mar 18

Hello #econsky I write about monetary policy at eightateeight.substack.com and about trade at eighttradeeight.substack.com Do visit and subscribe, both are free!

EightateEight | amni rusli | Substack

Economics and Finance. Click to read EightateEight, by amni rusli, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

eightateeight.substack.com

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 14h

GS

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 17h

Good evening

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 2d

on.ft.com/3W6emBv Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief

Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief

Takeover of Nexperia plunges Netherlands into US-China tech war

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 2d

Tariffs Rig Up Markets Purposefully

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 3d

How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution

Vast battery units are shoring up grids and extending the use of clean power

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 4d

Bill Nelson

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 7d

on.ft.com/4mUsSqI The Davos set in decline: can the World Economic Forum save itself?

The Davos set in decline: can the World Economic Forum save itself?

Battered by scandal, the Swiss organisation behind the annual summit faces a moment of crisis. Insiders say its future may depend on the success of next year’s meeting

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10d

on.ft.com/4mQqLEE Confronting the limits of monetary policy

Confronting the limits of monetary policy

The ability of interest rates to guide prices and the economy is diminishing

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10d

Human beings are members of a whole, in creation of one essence and soul. If one member is afflicted with pain, other members uneasy will remain. If you have no sympathy for human pain, the name of human you cannot retain. ~Sa’adi

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 12d

#EconSky Wealth effects are enhancing annualised consumption growth, primarily among higher-income households; though will vary under alternative asset prices (equity and home) scenarios, providing either a boost or a drag.

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

come at the expense of real household income. Either way, it suggests softer demand conditions ahead as the economy continues to adjust to the new tariff regime. // MS

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

through August suggests we may see a larger positive change in unit prices in the second half of the year. This could create a narrative of moderately firmer hiring and better profitability, though it would

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

costs into payrolls and margins, it may contribute to an environment where passing on tariff costs to consumer prices becomes more difficult. The outlook though, calls for greater pass-through to prices in coming quarters; recent firming in consumer prices from June

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

Lack of tariff pass-through to consumer prices doesn't automatically boost domestic demand; less employment or layoffs could slow consumer demand while lower profitability weighs on business spending. Indeed, if nonfinancial companies continue absorbing tariff-related

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

Efforts to cut unit labour costs included slower hiring, reduced hours worked, boosting productivity in the quarter. If firms persist in absorbing via lower profits and labour costs over prices, earnings for tariff-exposed sectors may suffer, with downside risks to employment.

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

prices suggesting tariffs began filtering into prices from June, with Q3 data possibly showing a different mix. Non-labour costs rose due to higher taxes on production and imports, less subsidies and transfer payments, contrasting last year when taxes fell and fixed capital consumption rose.

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

largely absorbed tariffs through higher unit non-labour costs, partially offset by lower unit labour costs, nudging profitability lower. Firms didn't initially push prices higher; relative to 2024, unit price increases were dramatically less in 2025. Data aligns with consumer

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

pass tariffs to consumers via higher prices, absorb into high profit margins, or offset with cost controls like layoffs. These aren't binary; costs will likely hit consumer prices, profits, equity valuations, or the labour market eventually. In Q2 2025, corporates

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

(The US customs duties as a percentage of goods imports=annualised effective tariff rate) Non-financial corporate profit margins stand at 14%, down modestly from Covid peaks but still 1.7pp above the 15-year non-recession average. Firms face three choices:

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13d

#EconSky 🧵 Tariffs are seen as a timing issue: the US avoids recession, but growth rebound comes later after full absorption. The effective tariff rate hovers around 9%, and should approach the 16% tariff rate in the baseline outlook over the coming months.(1/n)

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 14d

"Something like a dozen people in the world understand that the "Coase" theorem is not the Coase theorem." www.deirdremccloskey.org/docs/pdf/Art...

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 15d

on.ft.com/4gKGxze Russia’s hybrid war is ‘only the beginning’, warns Danish PM

Russia’s hybrid war is ‘only the beginning’, warns Danish PM

Mette Frederiksen says Nato needs to adjust its response to Russian provocations

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 15d

open.substack.com/pub/nicholas...

Berry-Hausman-Pakes Should Win the Nobel Prize

A prize for revolutionizing industrial organization

open.substack.com

Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 15d

guiding forward-looking inflation expectations toward convergence with the central bank's medium-term target, thereby fostering a stable anchoring that mitigates the potential for unmoored dynamics amid prevailing uncertainties.