Carlos Algara
@algaraca.bsky.social
470 followers 410 following 16 posts
Political Scientist/Assistant Professor, Claremont Graduate University | 2019-20 APSA Congressional Fellow | Optimistic @WSUcougars & @Mariners fan | https://calgara.github.io
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algaraca.bsky.social
Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted.

We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk

Fun collaboration!

www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
How an Independent Study Project Became a Published Election Forecast | Claremont Graduate UniversityClaremont Graduate University
www.cgu.edu
algaraca.bsky.social
What an incredible public good and contribution!
gelliottmorris.com
we have been working on this new polling aggregation website for a few months now, and are excited to share it with the world! plenty more features and polls to come.
algaraca.bsky.social
Absolutely incredible work and public good, thanks for launching this Elliott! Terrific and needed resource at a critical time!
Reposted by Carlos Algara
garlicksauce.bsky.social
For public policy scholars: JPIPE published our article that uses machine learning to code the universe of congressional and state legislative data since 2009 by the Comparative Agenda Project policy codes. That's 1.68 million bills. OPEN-ACCESS here: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
algaraca.bsky.social
Such excellent work and a terrific public good—congrats Alex!!
algaraca.bsky.social
Thank you, my friend!
algaraca.bsky.social
Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social
repjournal.bsky.social
NEW!
How do interest group endorsements shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale & Simmons find that pro-reform messages from interest groups increase support for voting rights legislation - but only among Democrats
@algaraca.bsky.social #PoliticalScience #PublicOpinion
algaraca.bsky.social
Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted.

We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a
@pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk

Fun collaboration!

www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...
How an Independent Study Project Became a Published Election Forecast | Claremont Graduate UniversityClaremont Graduate University
www.cgu.edu
algaraca.bsky.social
Congratulations to Senator Thune, the U.S. Senate’s Majority Leader in the 119th Congress.

Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election.

There’s a life lesson there!
algaraca.bsky.social
Excited to see work w/@edwardheadington.bsky.social & others using new data on party & POTUS brands since 1938 to predict 2024 elexs at POTUS & congressional levels out @pspolisci.bsky.social!

Project stemmed from independent study w/talented
CGU students; neat experience!

🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc
Forecasting Partisan Collective Accountability During the 2024 U.S. Presidential & Congressional Elections | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
Forecasting Partisan Collective Accountability During the 2024 U.S. Presidential & Congressional Elections
tinyurl.com
algaraca.bsky.social
Excited to share new work in the Journal of Political Marketing w/terrific grad student Seon Bae.

Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority.

🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c
algaraca.bsky.social
We find electorally strong majorities have little incentive to moderate bills while weaker majorities face strong incentive to motivate bipartisanship towards reaping electoral benefit.

Clear trade-off between public support & majority partisan agendas.

Link: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
algaraca.bsky.social
Excited to see our article out at JPIPE, especially in the issue commemorating the 30th anniversary of Cox & McCubbins' Legislative Leviathan.

Josh Ryan & I ask are there exogenous sources of variation in ideological policy concessions the majority makes to the minority in Congress?

Yes!

1/2
algaraca.bsky.social
Interesting new poll on the mass public's approval of the U.S. Congress...but is 8% the new "normal?"

Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022.

8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!
algaraca.bsky.social
Great opportunity for first post on BlueSky!

Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social .

Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!
markuswagner.bsky.social
Check out this new special issue in Electoral Studies: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/elec... It contains 7 cool articles on the nature and causes of AP - using observational and experimental data, focusing on measurement, elites and ideology, and an important theoretical piece as well.
Reposted by Carlos Algara
ewsandlin.bsky.social
Just had our big U01 kickoff meeting for the next phase of the Understanding America Study! A reminder to everyone in polisky that there's an enormous amount of existing data here and that if you field a survey using the UAS you can easily merge.

https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php
uasdata.usc.edu