Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator. ..
more
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Computer science
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Political science
28%
Pinned
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· Apr 15
For Monty Hall problem aficionados: a #causal DAG, with explanation in the alt text.
Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
🧑🤝🧑 #Population #density of 385 inhabitants per km² in Belgium.
* The Flemish Region registers a population density of 504 inhabitants/km²
* The Walloon Region of 219 inhabitants/km²
* The Brussels-Capital Region of 7,732 inhabitants/km²
#Statbel
👉 statbel.fgov.be/en/themes/po...
* The Flemish Region registers a population density of 504 inhabitants/km²
* The Walloon Region of 219 inhabitants/km²
* The Brussels-Capital Region of 7,732 inhabitants/km²
#Statbel
👉 statbel.fgov.be/en/themes/po...
This belongs in a gallery
It seems to me you just can't catch everything on entry; inference from paper content is probably too hard & possibly unfair. So most thinking should be on dissuading fraudulent submission, e.g. setting the costs high, and keeping the evidence unequivocal, even if not so many papers are checked.
From that point, a good repeated game could be made by: tying submission to ORCID id or institution (stable identity) putting some volunteer budget on a random audit of "author verified everything" papers (stochastic checking), naming & temporarily banning submissions from fibbers (cost imposition).
Reposted by Will Lowe
🧑🤝🧑 #Population #density of 385 inhabitants per km² in Belgium.
* The Flemish Region registers a population density of 504 inhabitants/km²
* The Walloon Region of 219 inhabitants/km²
* The Brussels-Capital Region of 7,732 inhabitants/km²
#Statbel
👉 statbel.fgov.be/en/themes/po...
* The Flemish Region registers a population density of 504 inhabitants/km²
* The Walloon Region of 219 inhabitants/km²
* The Brussels-Capital Region of 7,732 inhabitants/km²
#Statbel
👉 statbel.fgov.be/en/themes/po...
I presume this is a common enough quantity for the behavioural folk that such questionnaires already exist. Ultimately I suppose it'd be a high granularity and temporally indexed version of the social trust batteries that get fielded by WVS and others all the time.
Thinking idly and aloud, a short questionnaire directly asking about the probability of various things happening to them – you get <medical cost> refunded next month, the <council service> happens next week, the <professional> really does call back tomorrow – might calibrate a personal parameter.
otoh I'm going to start calling all hypothetical discussions of imaginary ML in a clinical context "medical frymblal"
On hyperbolic discounting and uncertain hazard rates | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
The value of a future reward should be discounted where there is a risk that the reward
will not be realized. If the risk manifests itself at a known, constant hazard rate,
a risk–neutral recipient sh...
royalsocietypublishing.org
Had we but world enough and time,
This coyness, lady, were no crime. (Sozou, 1998)
This coyness, lady, were no crime. (Sozou, 1998)
Waitlisting people can lead to inequality.
A study of 274,316 students finds that low-SES students are much less likely to wait for offers to preferred schools. This led low-SES students to ultimately enroll in programs they liked less and that were less prestigious.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
A study of 274,316 students finds that low-SES students are much less likely to wait for offers to preferred schools. This led low-SES students to ultimately enroll in programs they liked less and that were less prestigious.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
The revenge of the Marshmallow Experiment
This seems like it might be a clean confirmation of the theory that 'irrational' preference reversals in temporal choice problems are due to marginalising over socially-calibrated uncertainty about whether the later event will actually occur.
This seems like it might be a clean confirmation of the theory that 'irrational' preference reversals in temporal choice problems are due to marginalising over socially-calibrated uncertainty about whether the later event will actually occur.
Reposted by Will Lowe
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
Waitlisting people can lead to inequality.
A study of 274,316 students finds that low-SES students are much less likely to wait for offers to preferred schools. This led low-SES students to ultimately enroll in programs they liked less and that were less prestigious.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
A study of 274,316 students finds that low-SES students are much less likely to wait for offers to preferred schools. This led low-SES students to ultimately enroll in programs they liked less and that were less prestigious.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
skypes
posts in the streets and tweets in the sheets, as it were...
Indeed. Though that was always going to depend on whose weapons the Europeans rearmed with. I imagine the assumption (that wouldn't have survived a quick peek down the game tree either) was that it would all be American kit, with all the ownership rights and guarantees of a book bought on Kindle.
Reassuring, as that was very much my reasoning. For a little while I did play with formulating what 'fairness' in a grade curving function might amount to and characterizing the function class, but the regrettable, though salutary necessity of doing the job I am actually paid for intervened.
It was Mungojerrie – or Rumpelteazer – and most of the time they left it at that.
My modern solution is a little R package that takes a 0-100 mark and reverse-engineers shared difficulty & slope parameters in an imaginary IRT model such that new grades fulfill the institution's three quantile demands. When raw marks allow it's a smooth reasonably fairness-preserving grade curver.
"...in Times of Crisis" is the go to panel title around here, regardless of topic. One of the panelists must claim that something is "a wake-up call" and that something else is "not a panacea". An audience member will ask something about the "global south" and everyone will politely ignore them.
It's somehow appropriate that actual black holes, which famously swallow everything nearby and from which no light or information escapes, have the very much the same effect as talking about "black holes" does in public finance discussions.
Tariff-brain (US National Parks edition)
Note to Americans: These things start with foreigners but don't stop with them.
Note to Americans: These things start with foreigners but don't stop with them.
This one, because not only is it self-describing but it's the respectable aftermath of the immediately previous holiday that you can't quite remember the details of, and that's ok.
(Outside of Scotland, ymmv)
(Outside of Scotland, ymmv)
Without wanting to defend foolish parochialism (or the sophisticated kind, for that matter) this passage does really invite a Ryle 'category error' response.
Sometimes Harvey enters and participants see him from the left. Sometimes Harvey enters and participants see him from the right.
Attenuation, heterogenous treatment effect, or plain old SUTVA violation?
Attenuation, heterogenous treatment effect, or plain old SUTVA violation?
and still others will turn out to be simply out of scope for psychological theory altogether, like phlogiston as an explanation of colour.
So bring it on. We'll see what's standing when the dust settles.
3/3
So bring it on. We'll see what's standing when the dust settles.
3/3
Others think they show explanatory causes up close, like phlogiston or caloric.
But if thermodynamics is a guide, we should expect (hope, even) that in a truly mechanical theory, many will turn out distinct only because of our interests, like burning; others will just drop out, like caloric;
2/3
But if thermodynamics is a guide, we should expect (hope, even) that in a truly mechanical theory, many will turn out distinct only because of our interests, like burning; others will just drop out, like caloric;
2/3
And this. Cognitive dissonance can no longer be regarded as established.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
A Multilab Replication of the Induced-Compliance Paradigm of Cognitive Dissonance - David C. Vaidis, Willem W. A. Sleegers, Florian van Leeuwen, Kenneth G. DeMarree, Bjørn Sætrevik, Robert M. Ross, Ka...
According to cognitive-dissonance theory, performing counterattitudinal behavior produces a state of dissonance that people are motivated to resolve, usually by...
journals.sagepub.com
Whether or not you think replication failures show that cognitive dissonance (or dunning-kruger or grit or...) is not a thing, the big question is: where do 'effects' belong in psychology?
Some think they're just practically-derived motivating phenomena, like fire and rusting for thermodynamics
1/2
Some think they're just practically-derived motivating phenomena, like fire and rusting for thermodynamics
1/2
imho, as a long time computer person, it should feel like using with a vacuum cleaner. Maybe a clothes dryer. That it's occasionally like handling a firearm is horrible, but still not as bad as realizing it's like negotiating with a hostile bureaucracy somehow taken over by an advertising agency.