Author | Lightnews

Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Sep 20

Mirror image of their run this time last year

Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Sep 18

PENNSYLVANIA is now the first state with multiple Democratic House members to have the majority of its House Democratic caucus cosponsor the Block the Bombs Act (Lee, Scanlon, Dean, and Evans)
www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...

www.congress.gov

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Sep 9

*Taps the sign* Being good at data does not make one a good pundit

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Aug 11

Not that they deserve primary blame, but Biden/Harris were the ones who framed the election as being about democracy, and I think that's contributed to how it's been interpreted after the fact

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Aug 5

Consumer protection should be in the mix

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Aug 5

I will not stand for ABWH slander on my timeline

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Jul 18

God's Country

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Jul 18

30 Districts

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Jun 15

Reenergizing for sure. What gives me pause is that his charisma is not easily replicable. But his campaign is a proof of concept regardless.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Jun 4

I call it Manhattansplaining

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · May 21

With 35% of precincts reporting, Krasner looks to be replicating his 2021 coalition powered by Black voters across the city plus white neighborhoods outside the Northeast

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

The last time Lancaster County elected a Democrat to the Pennsylvania Senate was in 1889, when John S. Hoover won a special election.

136 years later, James Malone joins the club.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

With all precincts reporting, Democrat James Malone leads by 0.89%.

Keep in mind, SD-36 completely excludes the City of Lancaster. It's the once reliably-red suburbs, exurbs, and small towns that have flipped this district.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

As of this post there were a few, now just 1 left.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

I'm ready to call it: Democrat James Malone has FLIPPED SD-36.

It will be the first time in who knows how long that Lancaster County has elected a Democrat to the State Senate.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

Solid batch for Dem. James Malone. 89/120 precincts in and he's beating his benchmarks by about 1% on average. Rep. Josh Parsons needs to do several points better the rest of the way to catch up.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

With 68/120 precincts reporting in SD-36, Democrat James Malone is beating his benchmarks in 42 precincts, and Republican Josh Parsons is beating his in 26. My model says we're headed for a close race, with Malone having a slight edge at the moment.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

Another way I'm looking at PA SD-36 results so far:

Dems lost this district by 12% in the 2023 Supreme Court race. In the 5% of precincts reporting election day votes so far, the Dem is overperforming that result by 15%.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

6/120 precincts reporting election-day votes, and Democrat James Malone is beating his benchmarks in 5 of them.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 26

No comment until we see e-day numbers

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 25

Today's special election in northern Lancaster County presents the tantalizing but longshot possibility that the R-friendly incumbentmander of Pennsylvania's senatorial map could fail. I'll be following along just in case this gets interesting.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Mar 21

Thank you for this recommendation (and belatedly for your recommendation of Rethinking Statehood in Palestine which I've since read cover to cover)

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Reposted by Pennsylvania Maps

Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · Mar 12

Out of the three Harris district Republicans in Congress, one has clearly proven himself as the best (when it comes to overperforming), Brian Fitzpatrick in #PA01.

Despite Harris carrying his suburban Philly district, Fitzpatrick easily won re-election last year, winning by 13!

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Reposted by Pennsylvania Maps

Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · Mar 9

Last year in #PA08, we saw Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright lose re-election to Republican Rob Bresnahan by about two points.

This NEPA district has been trending to the right in the Trump era and Trump winning this district by 8 was probably enough to cost Cartwright.

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Pennsylvania Maps @pennsylvaniamaps.bsky.social · Feb 26

As a progressive I find this analysis compelling on the congressional district level. But after this Presidential election I wonder if putting together a winning national/electoral college coalition is just a categorically different task than winning a congressional race.

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