Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more
We are likely to see widening divergence in performance and resilience across different sectors, companies, households, and countries.
More to follow on this.
#economy #retailsales #markets
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Total sales were unchanged in October—falling short of consensus forecasts—while the September figure was revised down to 0.1%.
However, the real story lies beneath the surface in the...
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#economy #jobs #Unemployment
As Chair Powell noted last week, we should interpret these numbers cautiously due to shutdown-related data distortions.
However, if forced…
These numbers add to the government’s economic challenges and are consistent with the Bank of England cutting rates by 25 basis points this week.
#economy #uk #jobs #wages #employment #unemployment #markets
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Overall wage growth moderated from 4.7% to 4.6%. The private sector component slipped under 4% (3.9%), ...
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Momentum has swung toward Kevin Warsh, who is now tracking above Kevin Hassett.
#federalreserve #economy #markets @polymarket.bsky.social
The “rotation trade” away from tech (also called “the broadening”); and
Gold is up while Bitcoin is under pressure.
For the reasons I detailed last week, both offer insights not just for market participants, but also economists and policymakers.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly...
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets #jobs #Inflation #federalreserve #China #UK #Europe #AI #investing #investors
#economy #markets #studentloans #debt
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Betting markets have reacted to President Trump’s latest remarks regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair.
After signaling that his choice is down to Kevin AND Kevin, the implied probabilities for the top contenders have shifted.
#Polymarket #federalreserve #economy
The last few days' so-called “rotation trade” away from tech, illustrated by the Dow outperforming the Nasdaq (please see chart below), supports two themes:
Resilient Fundamentals: The traditional drivers of growth, particularly consumption, are ...
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October GDP fell by 0.1% as economic activity was undermined by volatilite uncertainty ahead of the budget announcement.
Sector analysis points to an extended “wait and see” attitude from both…
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#economy #markets #gold #investing #investors
To many there, $40 billion in central bank purchases is $40 billion in purchases ... and at a time when the Fed’s balance sheet, while reduced for its post-pandemic peak of $9 trillion, remains sizeable.
#economy #markets #federalreserve
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But that distinction tends to evaporate the closer you get...
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#economy #markets #jobs #labormarket #employment #unemployment
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As expected, last week’s drop in initial jobless claims proved to be a headfake, impacted by the Thanksgiving holiday.
This morning’s weekly numbers...
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Given the differences in companies operating conditions (please see prior posts), the longer this market dynamic persists, the greater the performance divergence within the tech sector will be over time.
#economy #markets #tech #investors
More dovish-than-expected balance sheet management.
#economy #federalreserve #markets