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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm.bsky.social

31K followers 44 following 1.4K posts

Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more

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Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more

Economics 67%

Business 13%

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 20h

Bloomberg on the latest UK data
“The jobless rate climbed to 4.8% in the three months through August, the highest since May 2021…. Economists had expected it to remain unchanged. Wage growth in the private sector cooled to 4.4%, the lowest since the end of 2021 and below the 4.5% predicted”
#economy

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 21h

A great read!
This well-written and entertaining book takes the reader on an engaging journey through the 1929 crash and its aftermath.
It explores how the ambition, greed, hubris, and resilience of the main actors forever changed the course of finance and the economy.
#markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

Good morning.
Per the latest headlines from Bloomberg and the Financial Times (below), it’s another rollercoaster day for China-US trade tensions.
#economy #trade #tariffs #china #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

From BBG:
“Investors are seeking to protect themselves from threats posed by runaway budget deficits through a phenomenon known as the "debasement trade", pulling away from sovereign debt and currencies.”
I’d just add that several factors are driving the so-called debasement trade, not just deficits

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

Gold and silver both hit new record highs today as stocks rebound from last Friday's selloff.

#markets #gold #silver #stocks #investing #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

From Bloomberg:
“Bond holders want an ever-higher premium to hold the debt of developed-nation governments as turmoil in France and Japan underscores how politics is eclipsing central bank policy globally as a key market driver.”
#economy #markets #bonds

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

President Trump on the rising trade tensions with China:

#economy #markets #trade #tariffs #china

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

A big thank you to all the students in my Wharton class this semester.
I enjoyed the engaging conversations and appreciate all your thoughtful contributions.
Wishing everyone the very best of luck on the exam!

#thankful

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

From the FT:
“UK consumers have curbed spending more than anywhere else in the G7 since the pandemic…
Since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, UK household spending has risen just 1 per cent in real terms and fallen 3 per cent on a per capita basis.”
#economy #uk @financialtimes.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

FYI, the link to my weekly look ahead for the global economy and markets.

mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...

#economy #markets

The Weekly Look Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets

The Context

mohamedelerian.substack.com

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Substack

The Weekly Look Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets

The Context

Reposts 0 3d

Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

Want to spark a heated debate among market participants? Ask them whether this valuation premium is justified (I believe it is),whether it will persist (I think it will), and—most contentious of all—at what overall level for the respective indices
(The chart below is from Bloomberg)
#markets #stocks

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

... the US applies on its major trading partners, ranked by total trade volume. This uneven landscape, if it persists or even increases, could well create second- and third-round economic effects.
#economy #tariffs #trade #markets @wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

... Given the persistent US fiscal deficit and high national debt (as detailed in yesterday's post), any administration would likely be hesitant to reverse a policy that already generates this level of budgetary receipts.
The second illustrates the pre-Friday disparity in tariff rates...

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

With the spotlight back on US tariff policy after yesterday’s announcement of a 100% additional levy on China as of November (if not earlier), these two charts from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest.
The first highlights the substantial increase in monthly revenue collected from tariffs....

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

The link to this afternoon's conversation with Scott Wapner.

Thank you, Scott, for having me on your show.

www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...

#economy #markets @cnbc.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

The very latest on today's sharp escalation in China-US tensions.

#economy #china #tariffs

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

The chart below is from the IMF.
Despite the significant surge over the past two years, I suspect this trend has more room to run.
The primary driver is the ongoing effort by some central banks to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
#markets #economy #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

Notable market moves this morning:
10-year U.S. Treasury yields below 4.10%.
WTI crude oil below $60.
These developments, combined with remarks signaling future rate cuts from Fed Governor Waller (identified as one of the five finalists to replace Chair Powell), will provide a boost to stocks.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

...of $1 trillion.
At $1.8 trillion, the overall deficit remained largely unchanged from the previous year.
The fiscal year's deficit equaled 6% of GDP, pushing the total national debt closer to its post-World War II peak of 106%.
www.wsj.com/economy/fede...
#economy #markets #budget #deficit

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

www.wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

Some takeaways from a WSJ summary (link below) of the US budget for the fiscal year that ended September 30th:
Tariff revenues more than doubled to $195 billion, quite a jump as rate hikes only took effect in April
Interest payments on the national debt surged by $80 billion to reach a new record...

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

www.wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

... we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets."
#economy #markets #argentina #emergingmarkets #imf @ustreasury.govmirrors.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

"The international community – including @IMFNews– is unified behind Argentina and its prudent fiscal strategy, but only the United States can act swiftly. And act we will."
This is from the statement by the @USTreasury confirming that "today we directly purchased Argentine pesos. Additionally...

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

From Bloomberg: “Beijing has been accumulating gold reserves for a decade and is now seeking to woo other nations to store gold in China's bonded warehouses and trade the metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.”
#economy #china #gold #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

What if stock market gains were measured in gold instead of dollars?
As John Authers notes, “Denominate U.S. stocks in gold rather than dollars, and they’ve been in decline since the dot-com bubble burst 25 years ago. Stocks elsewhere have done even worse.”
#stocks #gold #markets #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6d

Here’s the link to the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. They reveal significantly less consensus among officials on key policy issues than what was signaled at the press conference that followed that meeting.
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
#economy #FederalReserve

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 16–17, 2025

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that was held on September 16–17, 2025. The minutes f

www.federalreserve.gov

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 7d

No stopping the price of gold for now:
Up more than 50% so far this year, it has more than doubled over the past two years.
Consistent buying by some foreign central baks is being reinforced by growing institutional and retail allocations, and a more volatile speculative overlay.
#gold #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 7d

The resignation of another French PM highlights deep-seated political instability and fiscal challenges. This article explores the immediate impact on French government bonds, the unusual comparison to Italy's market, and the wider implications for the ECB and the UK:
www.ft.com/content/04ed...

What is happening in France may not stay in France

Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Mohamed A. El‐Erian

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 7d

What is happening in France may not stay in France on.ft.com/46E37Gu | opinion

What is happening in France may not stay in France

Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis

on.ft.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 7d

… respond to what they perceive as the ongoing fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.
#economy #markets #gold

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