Miklós Koren
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koren.mk
Miklós Koren
@koren.mk

Professor at ceu.edu.

Economics 76%
Business 11%
Pinned
Our paper with @gaborbekes.bsky.social @julianhinz.bsky.social and Aaron Lohmann is/was on top of HN. 15 minutes, I guess.

As an economist who grew up under socialism, I agree.

Vinyl skills:

1. What is vinyl?
2. It has two sides.
3. Can place the needle right before the bridge of Karma Police.

Indeed, (almost) every regression is a GROUP BY query. Amazing job @gmcd.bsky.social

Reposted by Gábor Békés

We can debate the magnitude but I don't see how you can say vibe coding does not weaken user engagement. If Claude (etc) selects and imports a library instead of a human user, how is that user engaged with the developer / user community of the library?

Reposted by Miklós Koren

Vibe coding may be hazardous to open source
Vibe coding may be hazardous to open source
Researchers argue AI coding tools disrupt community and hinder returns to maintainers Tailwind Labs CEO Adam Wathan recently blamed AI for forcing him to lay off three workers.…
dlvr.it

My favorite German veterinarian jargon:

tier spezifisches Eigengeruch

I keep repeating it to my dog.

Also, I don’t see the harm the title could do even if picked up by a journalist who didn’t read the paper.

Open source has a brittle business model. It grew fast but it can also collapse fast.

People should be aware of that. Don’t take the “random person in Nebraska” for granted.

xkcd.com/2347/
Dependency
xkcd.com

2. I very much favor @saywhatyoufound.bsky.social titles (doesn’t show in my pubs i know). This is not a speculation. This is not a pun. Not clickbait. This is what we found.

Watering it down to “Quality Selection and Entry into Open Source in the Age of AI” would have been a disservice to readers

The Melitz model performs very well in predicting selection into exporting, and how competition induces exit.

We need more work on the empirical calibration, but the key assumption theta > sigma holds for sure.

If we want to treat the model seriously, though, it has to be put together seriously. Informed by empirical evidence, institutional details, understanding of existing similar models and their performance.

Our model is based on the Melitz model. We realized it captures the relevant mechanisms best

1. Economic theory, especially general equilibrium models, provide useful predictions for changes that are too large and systemic to be studied in a small experiment.

Theory is not a way to capture one particular mechanism with math. It is a coherent way of thinking about how the mechs interact.

Good discussion, thank you! You’re raising two points:

1. how much can we learn from an economic model
2. what is our responsibility in giving paper titles

I agree these are important and non trivial questions. We have grappled with them both.

My views, may not be fully shared by coauthors:

@gaborbekes.bsky.social would be very interesting to try at @ceu-economics.bsky.social

There will be almost no need to actually type syntactically correct source code. But a lot of need to think like a software engineer.

But: How do you teach programming without using programming languages?

Would be curious to see a vibe coding first curriculum.

Yes, and congestion, too. When a lot of contributions are vibed, it is hard to do a good job on all task.

Fair points. The model has dev cost going down due to AI, the result is that in the race between that and the demand collapse, the latter wins.

We also speculate on what alternative business models can help.

Vibe Coding Kills Open Source Unless We Make Drastical Changes would be accurate, though.

All audiophiles are rich, but not all rich are audiophiles.

Reposted by Gábor Békés

It’s not click bait if it’s true.

The only condition needed is that ai-assisted usage and direct usage of the *same* software package are closer substitutes than different packages. We are sure this holds (though plan to do more data work to confirm), that’s why we opted for the strong title.
Vibe coding kills open source.
Our most direct title yet. @koren.mk @julianhi.nz @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social
Theory paper with numbers and policy recs. First at arxiv.org/abs/2601.15494
Comments welcome.

@ceu-economics.bsky.social @kiel.institute

Words you only hear in a vibe coding session:

"Now let me deploy and test"

Hungarians will understand what this is for.

It ended being a rave party, but hey, had fun anyway.

My rainbow window sticker approves of the music. Prepping for KGLW concert tomorrow.

Now it just keeps apologizing.

I could imagine a thought process of "no large RDBMS needed" but, I mean, it has "SQL" in the name.

I had an AI agent refer to SQLite as "noSQL-like DB."

Looks like it was trained on Medium/LinkedIn bullshit but I told it in no uncertain terms that this does not pass with me.

Today I was playing with econometrics (matrices and stuff) as well as relational data modelling (how are different entities related) and realized something.

> Econometrics is data modelling without the data.

I made a similar point in a talk some years ago (github.com/korenmiklos/...)
github.com

This morning I heard my son hum Nirvana in the bathroom. Not sure if I should be proud or worried.

Claude Sonnet 4.5 is currently working on the script that will get me what I want.

Users don't need chatbots. They need to seamlessly integrate AI into their workflows to minimize their pain. If Google doesn't understand this, they are in trouble.