Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
Research Fellow at IFS and EPI, independent consultant, posts about about school funding, education, inequalities and cycling
Education
58%
Economics
12%
3. Govt could reduce mainstream school budgets to fund high needs
£6bn is 11% of mainstream school budgets, so little chance of closing the whole gap this way.
But we’ve already seen squeezes in mainstream budgets. Over half of the rise in total school funding since 2018 has gone on high needs
£6bn is 11% of mainstream school budgets, so little chance of closing the whole gap this way.
But we’ve already seen squeezes in mainstream budgets. Over half of the rise in total school funding since 2018 has gone on high needs
2. The govt could top up the schools budget from elsewhere in the govt’s budget.
£6bn would be a 9% top up to the schools budget.
I’m sure this is DfEs preferred option
I suspect the chancellor would want to see clear plans to get spending under control before considering this.
£6bn would be a 9% top up to the schools budget.
I’m sure this is DfEs preferred option
I suspect the chancellor would want to see clear plans to get spending under control before considering this.
c) introduce stronger value for money tests so that legal mandates only apply where there is strong evidence a child will benefit from provision
d) restrict eligibility for EHCPs to higher cost needs. This makes more sense if you do a)-c)
d) restrict eligibility for EHCPs to higher cost needs. This makes more sense if you do a)-c)
1. Govt has various option to slow growth in SEND spending:
a) Shift funding to expand ordinary provision in mainstream schools so it’s easier, earlier and closer to pupils
b) increase places in state-funded special schools to reduce reliance on expensive places in the private sector
…
a) Shift funding to expand ordinary provision in mainstream schools so it’s easier, earlier and closer to pupils
b) increase places in state-funded special schools to reduce reliance on expensive places in the private sector
…
On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone.
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
Reposted by Luke Sibieta, Tim Leunig
Best followed up with this FT podcast with
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
Support for children with disabilities and special educational needs | Institute for Fiscal Studies
How do trends, demographics and outcomes of children receiving support for health conditions compare across the benefits and education systems?
ifs.org.uk
📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
Thats right.
We see relative declines at age 11 between 2013 and 2018, with not much change afterwards
We then see some small catch-up for most needs at age 16 from 2013 onwards. Note that the severe learning difficulties group is small and VERY heterogenous.
We see relative declines at age 11 between 2013 and 2018, with not much change afterwards
We then see some small catch-up for most needs at age 16 from 2013 onwards. Note that the severe learning difficulties group is small and VERY heterogenous.
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
England’s SEND crisis: costs, challenges and the case for reform | Institute for Fiscal Studies
What are the challenges facing the special educational needs system in England, and how can the government could reform the system?
ifs.org.uk
The only way to improve quality is through increases to supply-side capacity.
This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
This is the default projection in the absence of reform
The key question for government is whether it can deliver a smaller rise AND improve quality
We've written how the current EHCP-led funding model doesn't provide incentives to improve quality and can actively prevent it [2/3]
The key question for government is whether it can deliver a smaller rise AND improve quality
We've written how the current EHCP-led funding model doesn't provide incentives to improve quality and can actively prevent it [2/3]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]
Reposted by Christina Pagel
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Oct 3
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
Reposted by Luke Sibieta, Christina Pagel
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 16
Further consultation planned on GCSE science | Qualifications Wales
Qualifications Wales has announced that a new consultation on GCSE science will take place in 2028.
qualifications.wales
Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation)
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
The present system creates legal entitlements pupil by pupil. But, there is practically no way to judge whether the £4bn increase in funding has delivered value-for-money. The evidence on the best approaches is pretty thin.
The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]
The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
The factors driving increased numbers of children with SEND are global. Numbers of children with identified needs are going up in any future system, particularly autism and ADHD
The question is how best to respond [2/6]
The question is how best to respond [2/6]
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
· Jul 31
That’s quite a cool anecdote. What’s the book?