3. Govt could reduce mainstream school budgets to fund high needs

£6bn is 11% of mainstream school budgets, so little chance of closing the whole gap this way.

But we’ve already seen squeezes in mainstream budgets. Over half of the rise in total school funding since 2018 has gone on high needs

2. The govt could top up the schools budget from elsewhere in the govt’s budget.

£6bn would be a 9% top up to the schools budget.

I’m sure this is DfEs preferred option

I suspect the chancellor would want to see clear plans to get spending under control before considering this.

c) introduce stronger value for money tests so that legal mandates only apply where there is strong evidence a child will benefit from provision

d) restrict eligibility for EHCPs to higher cost needs. This makes more sense if you do a)-c)

1. Govt has various option to slow growth in SEND spending:

a) Shift funding to expand ordinary provision in mainstream schools so it’s easier, earlier and closer to pupils

b) increase places in state-funded special schools to reduce reliance on expensive places in the private sector

…

Best followed up with this FT podcast with
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households

www.ft.com/content/33d7...

📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Thats right.

We see relative declines at age 11 between 2013 and 2018, with not much change afterwards

We then see some small catch-up for most needs at age 16 from 2013 onwards. Note that the severe learning difficulties group is small and VERY heterogenous.

The only way to improve quality is through increases to supply-side capacity.

This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

This is the default projection in the absence of reform

The key question for government is whether it can deliver a smaller rise AND improve quality

We've written how the current EHCP-led funding model doesn't provide incentives to improve quality and can actively prevent it [2/3]

There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.

There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]

Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs

If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]

Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.

Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims

Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]

Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]

The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]

And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.

Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.

Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]

Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]

If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]