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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 10h

I adore my MiL. She has many qualities, one of which is that she lives on a different continent. I just wanted to choose an example which people, other than myself, would have some emotional proximity to. Enough proximity to think about unrecoverable dynamics of a seemingly stable situation.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 11h

That’s why it is sometimes better to look at the world in 2nd partial derivatives, that is at the forces that a system is exposed to. When I throw my mother-in-law’s petunias out of the window, for example, I won’t know how they are going to break, but break they will.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 14h

..Im all for pulling more investment in-house and ramping it up if the economics work. For example 30GWh of publicly owned batteries would do wonders.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 14h

There is s lot of private sector investment which should be classed as public as risks are borne by us ( water, gas, many renewables). It’s essentially an accounting fudge and hugely inefficient, because it is more difficult to coordinate and balance sheets exert more drag. So as a bond holder,…

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 15h

Wanna build something lasting? Nuclear waste lasts eons!

For that radiant smile

Hot-JD Vance-Sofa-Hottest-3 Mile Island

Why do something simple if you can use the strong nuclear force to heat water?

For that radient smile

When removing fluoride just doesn’t get rid of teeth fast enough

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 16h

Maybe the best way to reign in Reform is to have political discussions during Christmas Dinner.

Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Looking at the NY Fed GC report, volume shot up by $40bn to $1.183 trn from the 14th to the 15th with the rate moving from 4.16 to limit up 4.25. And that is the best collateral that is out there for repos. So there appear to be inelasticities if volumes increase further. How is the rest of the MMs

Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Maybe there is more to a scarcity in liquidity than just QT.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

There are added complexities now. Markets are much more leveraged and government finances weaker, Trump is gonna want to have a cut, some CEOs might have said something heretic in the past such as supporting the rule of law or coming out against shooting priests in the head with pellet guns.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Trump and economic pain in the U.S. may force the UK‘s hand. Closer integration with the EU may be the only safe harbour when being caught out in the ensuing storm.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Regional banks. Some of them are surely still under water in their HTM UST portfolios. It’s more of a funding than an MtM issue. But still, the 10s/30s UST vs DEM asset swap box might be interesting to keep an eye on.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Do they actually profit? What would be the breakeven oil price? The oil market is oversupplied, demand growth is sluggish, and OPEC can always open the taps to drive out high-cost competition, which is what they are currently doing with US shale.

Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

It is difficult to explain the somewhat unhinged and irrational exuberance of market participants in relation to AI, unless they see themselves covered by a Trump-put.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Could it be a bit of a short squeeze as well?

Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

Especially with renewable energy, local approaches are often much more efficient and less prone to lobbying campaigns which collectively lock in billions of unnecessary cost. In fact, coming together to build solar and storage across a community might give the impetus to tackle other inefficiencies.

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 1d

The best trading advice is that GS has made a research report public, something they rarely do. So they may want you to do what they recommend which means that they could be sitting on the other side of the trade.

Reposted by Holger Binding

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 1d

How dozens of Trump’s donors have benefited from his second term on.ft.com/4o1zdlU

How dozens of Trump’s donors have benefited from his second term

While previous presidents have introduced policies that have helped supporters, such incidents are now more common and overt

on.ft.com

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 2d

The most important number is the total outstanding repo amount. If that starts creeping up significantly, then there is time to ‘worry’. But there may be other less visible avenues to push cash into the banking system.

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Reposted by Holger Binding

FT Alphaville @alphaville.ft.com · 2d

An examination of AI pricing structures or an excuse to make some ridiculous graphs? You be the judge:

on.ft.com/3JfSUag

What GPU pricing can tell us about how the AI bubble will pop

[FREE TO READ] Rental health awareness

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Holger Binding

stockfttp.bsky.social @stockfttp.bsky.social · 2d

Ah the new politics...like the old politics, only worse 😬

"fossil fuel lobbyists were present at 48% more ministerial meetings during Labour’s first year in power than under the Conservatives in 2023."

Labour ministers met fossil fuel lobbyists 500 times in first year of power, analysis shows

Lobbyists attended 48% more meetings than Tories, as Labour accused of giving them ‘backstage pass’

www.theguardian.com

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 2d

Maybe it’s cheaper?

Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 2d

For this statement one would need a detailed analysis of the overall transaction cycle, pricing, credit rating methodology, risk defeasance, valuation and a thorough audit of the current state of affairs. It is worrying that a lot of the paper jumped to default and did not sell-off massively before.

Reposted by Holger Binding

Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 2d

My Trade Secrets column today. Trump's been thrashing round with his tariffs for nearly nine months now but the global economy's doing....not too badly?

I look at why, and also note there's a much bigger threat from the AI bubble and the US's renewed addiction to fossil fuels.

The AI bubble is a bigger global economic threat than US tariffs

[FREE TO READ] America’s use of import duties has been constrained by financial markets and economic reality

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Holger Binding

Ellie Chowns MP @elliechowns.bsky.social · 3d

Rosebank forced to admit its climate impact would be 50x greater than it initially claimed. Clear evidence that this climate-wrecking oil field must never be developed

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Controversial UK oil field reveals climate impact if approved

The impact from the Rosebank oil field is estimated at nearly 250 million tonnes of planet warming CO2.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Holger Binding @hermgamma.bsky.social · 2d

If traders do not have to return money when they lose, the portfolio return maximising strategy and the take home pay maximising strategies differ. Traders are long and investors are short cliquet calls on the book so traders are incentivised to crank up exposures beyond what’s necessary.