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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h

NB: “If Americans had a more clear-eyed view of Putin, they would see a dictator who’s bet everything on a failed invasion, a country losing its sphere of influence, and an economy that’s rapidly cooling.” Agree. Also NB on Putin’s “social contract” w the RU public (which IMO is holding up for now).

The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 14h

Russia’s leader isn’t nearly as strong as he’s made out to be, Andrew Ryvkin writes. “A realistic view of his power would strip Putin of his biggest leverage: the perception of his invincibility”:

Putin Is Not Winning

Underestimating the Russian leader is dangerous, but ascribing dark powers to him plays right into his hands.

bit.ly

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Reposted by Edward Walker

Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 9h

Large Russian enterprises are switching to three- and four-day work weeks, Russian media outlets report.

◾️ Uralvagonzavod - one of the world’s leading manufacturers of armored vehicles (including T-72 tanks) and Russia’s largest producer of freight railcars - is now operating below full capacity.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 9h

Appears RU’s “military Keynesianism” is running out of steam, as expected. NB: “The IMF maintained its forecasts of 1% GDP growth for RU in 2026 and 1.1% in 2030... At the same time, the IMF projected Russia’s inflation rate will rise to 9% this year.”

The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 12h

The revision marks a 0.3 percentage-point downgrade from the IMF’s July estimate of 0.9% GDP growth and represents the second-sharpest cut among major economies after Canada.

IMF Cuts Russia’s 2025 Economic Forecast Again - The Moscow Times

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday once again lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2025, projecting an expansion of just 0.6% even as it raised its global outlook.

www.themoscowtimes.com

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h

Key point: “As the Moscow Times puts it: ‘The gap between the RU military’s upbeat reports and the battlefield reality helps feed into… Putin’s conviction that RU is winning the war, analysts say. That perception, they argue, undercuts any incentive for the Kremlin to engage in serious peace talks.‘

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 19h

Despite the lack of military breakthroughs Putin still talks of Ukraine’s imminent defeat. On what basis does he do so? Latest post considers his theory of victory. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

Putin's theory of victory

The war between Russia and Ukraine is more likely to end with a negotiated ceasefire than with a sweeping military victory though neither seems close.

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Edward Walker

Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 21h

Russia’s National Automobile Union is pushing the federal govt to impose price caps on gasoline, days after Putin waived a ceiling on subsidies to wholesalers. Lots of market manipulations afoot as Russia twists and bends amid an ongoing fuel shortage.

Внести заправку: в России предложили установить потолок цен на АЗС

Для чего это понадобилось и как хотят рассчитывать допустимый максимум стоимости топлива

iz.ru

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 14h

And another key point relevant to RU: “…regime policies are dictated by narrow elite interests often violating the national interest, i.e. the political, economic, and security interest of the bulk of the Iranian populace…”

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 14h

Also: “the nature of the relationship between Iran on one hand and RU and China on the other has often been falsely characterized as a robust alliance... In reality, both Moscow and Beijing have consistently acted as opportunistic actors, abusing Tehran’s geopolitical isolation and hence weakness..”

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 15h

Excellent. NB: “…wars cannot be neatly predicted analytically; they are inherently subject to unexpected events, including miscalculations… In fact…this war may presage the next…powerful structural counterbalancing forces binding Iranian retaliation to regime-survival concerns are likely to remain.”

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 14h

Interesting. NB: “The counter-drone platform helps address the cost conundrum of using expensive missiles against cheap drones.”

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · 15h

Everything is Golden Dome, Golden Dome is everything. "Those capabilities [corps-level sensor-shooter networks] are many of the same capabilities that our leaders have told us to look to develop for the Golden Dome...for homeland defense activity as well" www.militarytimes.com/land/2025/10...

How the US Army, NATO are creating a new Eastern Flank Deterrence Line

To deter Russian aggression, the U.S. and NATO are rapidly building an Eastern Flank defense network focused on counter-drone tech and data integration.

www.militarytimes.com

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 14h

Also: “the nature of the relationship between Iran on one hand and RU and China on the other has often been falsely characterized as a robust alliance... In reality, both Moscow and Beijing have consistently acted as opportunistic actors, abusing Tehran’s geopolitical isolation and hence weakness..”

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 15h

Excellent. NB: “…wars cannot be neatly predicted analytically; they are inherently subject to unexpected events, including miscalculations… In fact…this war may presage the next…powerful structural counterbalancing forces binding Iranian retaliation to regime-survival concerns are likely to remain.”

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 20h

The war that was supposed to ignite the region instead exposed Iran’s limits.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 15h

Excellent. NB: “…wars cannot be neatly predicted analytically; they are inherently subject to unexpected events, including miscalculations… In fact…this war may presage the next…powerful structural counterbalancing forces binding Iranian retaliation to regime-survival concerns are likely to remain.”

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 20h

The war that was supposed to ignite the region instead exposed Iran’s limits.

The 12 Days of War That Didn’t Ignite the Middle East or the World

For decades, predictions about a war with Iran carried an air of inevitability: Analysts warned a conflict would close the ranks of the Iranian military

warontherocks.com

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 17h

Thread. My take too. NB: “Hope for the best. Expect nothing. As long as the US keeps selling weapons to Ukraine and doesn’t lift major sanctions on Russia, that’s already close to a best-case scenario under Trump. Intel sharing or Tomahawks? Welcome bonuses.“

Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 18h

1/5 With Gaza partially settled for now, Trump is shifting focus.

Zelensky is meeting him this week.

Ukraine wants Tomahawk missiles. Trump sounds more supportive than ever.

But don’t get fooled

Reposted by Edward Walker

Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 18h

Drones, drones everywhere.

Unmanned aerial vehicles are dominating defence tech funding

Source: on.ft.com/4nVrPse

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 17h

IMO true up to a point. Question is where is that point?

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 18h

🤷‍♂️If we shot down Russian planes in the skies over NATO, we would be weak, NATO Secretary General Rutte said.

“As long as they don’t pose a threat, we will gently guide them out of our airspace.
This is a proportionate response – we are much stronger than the Russians.”

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 17h

IMO definitely better than nothing. We’ll see if it happens. Drip drip for Moscow, so hard to see how it cld respond. It will assume there will be more coming down the road, likely correctly.

Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 @pravda.ua · 17h

⚡️ US can supply only 20-50 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine

US can supply only 20-50 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine – FT

The United States has been able to offer Ukraine only 20-50 Tomahawk missiles, a quantity that is unlikely to materially change combat dynamics or the battlefield situation.

www.pravda.com.ua

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 1d

NB: “But official Chinese trade data shows that Beijing has allowed a sharp increase in the components that are enabling RU manufacturers to build fiber-optic drones…”

Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · 1d

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Behind Russia’s battlefield drone surge in Ukraine? Chinese factories.

Chinese sales of fiber-optic cable and lithium-ion batteries to Russian drone makers surged over the summer, underscoring Beijing’s “no limits” ties with Moscow.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Well that’s another IMO smart move by Ze. Keeps nudging Trump, suggesting he might get the Nobel if he steps up pressure on Putin.

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 2d

❗️We are a strong country, but not so big that we can simultaneously confront Russia, Iran and North Korea — that’s too much, — Zelensky

The president also said:

• If Trump puts pressure on Putin and stops him, next year Ukraine will nominate the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“

Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 7d

Time may no longer be on Russia's side.

US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Yup, my take too.

Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 2d

A new phase has begun in Russia’s war on Ukraine, where strategic long-range strikes outweigh front-line advances in determining the war’s trajectory

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Shld make clear I continue to think it’s quite unlikely Trump agrees to provide UKR w Tomahawks.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

This IMO is the usual bluster from Moscow but two points: the war keeps “escalating” in myriad ways, and given West isn’t directly engaged, “escalation management” is inevitable (but that doesn’t tell you how to manage); US cld impose target restrictions plus commit to non-nuke models/warheads etc.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Kremlin spokesman Peskov, commenting on possible Tomahawk transfer to Ukraine, said the missiles are nuclear-capable or could be turned by Ukrainians into long-range "dirty bombs", suggesting Russia would treat their launch as a nuclear strike.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

This IMO is the usual bluster from Moscow but two points: the war keeps “escalating” in myriad ways, and given West isn’t directly engaged, “escalation management” is inevitable (but that doesn’t tell you how to manage); US cld impose target restrictions plus commit to non-nuke models/warheads etc.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Kremlin spokesman Peskov, commenting on possible Tomahawk transfer to Ukraine, said the missiles are nuclear-capable or could be turned by Ukrainians into long-range "dirty bombs", suggesting Russia would treat their launch as a nuclear strike.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Also this. Tit-for-tat and more F16s and armaments.

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

What does Ukraine do in response? Do they start attacking Russian power generation? Its a scary world we are in.

Also, thank god for the F-16s. They are vital to Ukrainian air defense--though many analysts were arguing against them years ago because the Ukrainians could not operate them. Ha.

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

V good on what IMO will likely be the key strategic focus in the coming months—RU’s LRS campaign against civilian quality of life vs UKR’s layered AD w Wstrn asst. NB: “… if the RUs are firing hundreds, maybe even thousands, of systems per week, that means that hundreds are reaching their targets.”

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

Hi all, Just sent out my free weekend update. It ended up being focussed on the strategic air war. Russia, once again, is trying to make Ukrainian cities unliveable in winter. They have benefited by the US slow walking air defense--though Europeans are helping more. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #154: The Strategic Air War And The Approaching Winter

Russian Attacks, Ukrainian Options for Defense, and F-16s

open.substack.com

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 2d

Strong agree, except I’d add “so far.”

Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 2d

Zelensky and his administration, along with several European leaders, deserve credit for the way they have handled Trump, effectively minimizing the damage he could cause and limiting his potential support for Putin

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Reposted by Edward Walker

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 2d

The US is helping Ukraine strike Russian energy infrastructure by providing intelligence for drone flight planning, FT reports. Since summer, this support has enabled precise attacks on oil refineries and pipelines, cutting Russian diesel exports and forcing fuel imports.

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Reposted by Edward Walker

Tymofiy Mylovanov @mylovanov.bsky.social · 3d

Ukraine's small F-16 fleet now flies roughly 80% of all Ukrainian Air Force sorties despite limited pilot numbers and armament.

F-16 wing vice commander "AB" revealed his unit downed over 1,000 Russian Shahed drones and dozens cruise missiles — Air & Space Forces Mag. 1/

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Reposted by Edward Walker

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 3d

⚡️Fires reported in Russia's Belgorod oblast amid suspected power plant attack, local officials say.

Falling debris from downed missiles sparked fires and caused damage in Belgorod, Russia, the regional governor reported Oct. 11 amid a suspected attack on a power plant in the city.

Fires reported in Russia's Belgorod oblast amid suspected power plant attack, local officials say

Falling debris from downed missiles sparked fires and caused damage in Belgorod, Russia, the regional governor reported Oct. 11 amid a suspected attack on a power plant in the city.

kyivindependent.com

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