Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Glen Vecchione is an American composer, lyricist, poet, and writer. With David Dusing he co-authored the music and lyrics to the musical The Legend of Frankie and Johnny. He is the author and illustrator of several non-fiction books for children and young adults; many of them written on science related topics or on children's games. He has also published poetry for adults in several literary journals. Under the pseudonym Glen Peters he wrote the novel Where the Nights Smell Like Bread. .. more
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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@drsimonbaker.bsky.social @ketanjoshi.co @robbieandrew.bsky.social
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It is clear, and not at all surprising, that oil was expected to be much higher (and therefore much longer I would say) in the 2019 report.
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The first he builds over a few minutes and deliberately confuses 1.5C no new oil (back in 2020) with current policies (today).
The second is, I believe, the complete opposite of reality. Someone must have a figure...
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Reposted by Glen P. Peters
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
Digging into the details, there is positive news in many countries. We highlight 35 in the Global Carbon Budget (statistical significant).
So policy works, there is just little!
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Climate policy is only really changing CO2/Energy, but we need much more action on Energy/GDP. There are even signs improvements in this are slowing (e.g., if E/GDP did not slow in China, Chinese emissions would have peaked already).
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Sure, the effect of policy has been small (perhaps due to the small size of policy, not that it doesn't work).
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Roger & I are using the same data, I would just say Roger should be looking at CO2/Energy!
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That requires additional attribution. But, there is quite strong evidence that there are policies driving renewables deployment and innovation. There are also studies on the links between policy and emissions.
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Energy/GDP is not changing much. Energy / climate policy are not effecting energy efficiency.
CO2/Energy is going down: Climate policy is shifting away from coal to gas & renewables.
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It is possible to show this is due to two opposing factors: A negative component due to declining fossil share (increasing renewables) & more carbon intensive fossil system (perhaps since bioenergy has zero emissions).
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We can show this is due to coal to gas and growth in renewables (see article in previous post).
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We have good evidence CO2/energy is changing, even in 2017 rdcu.be/eRQQ7, and we can further split this into the role of coal to gas and to renewables (see article).
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Reposted by Roger A. Pielke, Richard S.J. Tol
There is an argument that CO2 per unit GDP has not accelerated in 50 years (top left).
This term is made of two componets:
* Energy per GDP (bottom left) which has not changed
* CO2 per Energy (top right), this is where the action is
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Reposted by Jussi T. Eronen
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Reposted by Kornelis Blok
*Therefore is problematic here, as it implies that if DACCS was cheap less reductions are needed. No, no, no.
ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
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Reposted by Glen P. Peters
In simple terms, brown on this graph is India's share and blue is China's share.
The trigger? India effectively halted all imports of petroleum into Nepal in 2015, an "undeclared blockade", which was "masked as constitutional concern".
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/